The global interest rate cut cycle is approaching + the increasingly friendly political environment, a new round of rising market may start at any time.
1. Fundamentals
1. At 20:30 on the evening of June 5, the small non-farm ADP employment data released by the United States in May was weaker than expected, confirming that the US employment is showing signs of cooling, and the market expects that the non-farm data on Friday is more likely to be weak. This will prompt the Federal Reserve to start the interest rate cut cycle as soon as possible, and the possibility of a rate cut in September has risen to 70%. The S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs again, and $BTC followed the rise and tried to break through the near high of 71979.
2. On June 5, the Bank of Canada announced that it would cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, becoming the first G7 country to cut interest rates. The market expects that the European Central Bank is also very likely to start this round of interest rate cuts tonight, and the global interest rate cut wave may come soon.
3. A friendly political environment is coming. The chairman of the US SEC rarely gave a slack to the Ethereum ETF, which may become a catalyst for a new round of increases. Yesterday, the chairman of the US SEC said that when the Ethereum ETF can start trading depends largely on the speed of the issuer's response to the SEC's inquiries. This statement revealed that the SEC will normally approve the Ethereum ETF, and there is basically no suspense about the approval of the $ETH spot ETF.
2. BTC spot ETF trading
On June 5, there was a net inflow of 488 million US dollars, the 17th consecutive day of net inflow, and there will be about 6915 purchases after 21:30 on Thursday night.
3. Technical aspects
Daily line: BTC faces pressure from the near high of 71979 and the falling trend line. MACD forms a golden cross and has not yet shown a weakening signal.
1 hour: MACD has a top divergence and needs technical repair. It is expected that there will be a clearer trend tomorrow morning.
4. Market tone and suggestions
1. BTC: The high-level consolidation on the way up on the daily line has a very small probability of a sharp correction. Wait for Friday, the positive non-agricultural data will challenge the historical high of 73777, but the possibility of a rapid breakthrough in the short term is small. Suggestion: Hold the currency for a rise and be cautious in shorting. The support below 70400~69600 is the first range to enter the market, followed by 67500~68500.
3. ETH: Consolidation at high level, greatly affected by ETF information, information influences the trend, whales have differences, and there is a certain differentiation from BTC trend. Suggestion: Hold the currency for rise, be cautious in short selling. Short-term trend is difficult to grasp, reduce the frequency of operation. The area below the consolidation range 3730~3650 is the first range to enter the market, followed by 3400~3500.
