Macroeconomics and news:
Although the US stock market opened with an increase tonight, the increase will not be too good. It may be the best result to maintain the increase and close. Currently, the stock prices of the seven major technology giants in the US stock market are mixed, and the sentiment is general.
Although the risk market is optimistic about the CPI data this week, this optimism will be tested tomorrow. Tomorrow is the release day of the US Producer Price Index, which is also one of the important data for measuring inflation indicators. The current value of the index is 2.1% and the expected value is 2.2%. The expected value is higher than the previous value. As long as the announced value does not exceed the previous value, it is good news.
However, at 22:00 tomorrow night, Powell and ECB Governing Council member Nott will attend a meeting and deliver a speech. For the younger brothers in Europe, how the United States fools them will determine the direction of the speech. However, since it has successfully induced interest rate cuts in some European countries, it is estimated that the Federal Reserve will still fool the younger brothers and cut interest rates as soon as possible. After all, maintaining the interest rate gap for a long time is not very optimistic for the current economic situation in Europe. Once this direction is followed, the hot spots of expected interest rate cuts will be magnified.
The above is my personal guess. If this route is really followed, it will be a good thing for the risk market in the short term.
Here, by the way, there is a lot of online rumors that Tether will be censored by the United States. I personally think that the probability of Tether being censored or "really" censored before the end of the election is very small.
Many people think that the company is willing to be censored because many illegal activities in the world are using USDT, but don't forget that there have been news reports before that in many virtual asset freezing interactions in the United States, Tether also has a clear position and decisive actions to help freeze the assets on the chain, and it is very cooperative.
Secondly, most of the company assets anchored by Tether in the issuance of USDT are US dollar assets, of which US bonds account for a large part. If Tether is engaged at this time, it will undoubtedly force the company to sell US bonds. For US bonds, this is one of the current strategic goals of the United States, and the price of US bonds will not be easily damaged.
To sum up the above two points, I conservatively believe that Tether will not be liquidated or sued so easily, at least before the election. Of course, it is normal for Tether to be targeted, which depends on Tether’s position in the United States. If it is targeted in the short term, it is also because the previous financial reports are indeed excellent, which will definitely arouse envy. Secondly, it is probably targeted in the short term just to "take advantage of it."
Market summary will be released later.
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Our data is compared with last Friday, which was the last normal trading day last week. Although Bitcoin fell on Friday night, the rebound this afternoon has basically smoothed out the market value loss caused by the decline on Friday.
However, as the market value fell and rose, the altcoins suffered a large loss. Although the altcoins rebounded in the short term on Saturday, they became weak again over the weekend. After a weekend adjustment, the market value share of Bitcoin increased significantly, and the altcoins suffered the largest market share loss. As the altcoins' share decreased, market sentiment gradually changed from risk-oriented to more conservative.
In terms of trading volume, the current trading volume is basically the same as Friday, and as we observe during the statistical data period, after Bitcoin broke through 62,300, the trading volume gradually increased, especially after the fall after the high of 63,000, the trading volume surged in the short term, indicating that the long-short game was strong from the breakthrough of Bitcoin to the current position. If the trading volume increases, as long as it does not fall below the key position of the daily line, the increase in trading volume is a good thing, and a large amount of turnover is easier to stabilize. However, once it falls below 62,300, the continued increase in trading volume will instead represent an increase in short-term selling pressure, which is a bad thing.
Therefore, under different trends, the increase in trading volume represents different situations.
The current performance of funds is not bad. At present, the retained funds on the market have decreased by 100 million, and the net outflow of mainstream stablecoins over the market is 21 million, with a small outflow. Among them, the net outflow of Asian funds is 0.66, and the data chart shows that the fluctuation is still large, the trading volume has increased, the stability of funds is poor, and the liquidity has increased.
The net inflow of US funds USDC is 45 million, and there is a short-term reflux. However, the volatility of US funds today also shows a large fluctuation. The trading volume has doubled compared with the weekend. Although liquidity has increased, the sentiment of funds has become less stable.
However, the overall net outflow of funds has decreased, which also represents the current mood of fund holders who are hesitating left and right. The market sentiment is unstable and needs to wait for the guidance of emotions.
The market sentiment that focuses on this week is the producer price index on Tuesday and the CPI data on Wednesday. Later, we will pay attention to the macro economy and news.
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