CPI is about to be released, US stocks are rising, Bitcoin has started a new round of rebound, and the volume has increased at key positions. Can Bitcoin stabilize?
Hi, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of posting, Bitcoin is priced at around 63,000. At 2:00 this afternoon, Bitcoin started a new round of rebound, because of the online rumor that Tether will be sued by the United States, coupled with the expected positive CPI data this week, which led to the risk market to make efforts in advance. At present, Bitcoin has successfully broken through and stabilized at the key position of the daily line. The US stock market opened with an increase tonight, also with the help of the current CPI optimism, but tomorrow the optimism will face the first test, the US Producer Price Index.
Currently, Bitcoin has seen a large amount of turnover after rebounding to around 63,000. If the turnover continues to increase and does not fall below 62,300, it will be beneficial for the price to bottom out and rise again in the short term. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the key resistance level of the daily line.
Bitcoin market situation:
Bitcoin rebounded again in the afternoon. The rebound mainly came from the market's positive expectations for this week's CPI data and the short-term risk aversion sentiment caused by the SEC's lawsuit against Tether. This allowed Bitcoin to directly break through the key position of the daily level in the short term and temporarily stabilize.
The current key daily position is 62,300, the middle line of the Bollinger Band, which is above the upper track. The price trend and sentiment will be relatively better. On the contrary, if it falls below and returns to the lower track of the Bollinger Band, it will be unfavorable for the short-term price trend and sentiment.
In the short-term rebound, the key resistance above is around 65,700, which is the current key resistance level of the daily line. The effective resistance is formed by the upper line of the daily Bollinger Band and the middle line of the 3-day Bollinger Band.
Moreover, this position is also the recent high of the daily line. It is very important whether this position can be successfully broken through and stabilized during the rebound. If it still cannot break through and continues to fall, then the daily line will basically still be in a fluctuating downward trend.
The support below is still temporarily dependent on the 60,000 integer level. The recent multiple tests near 60,000 have consumed a lot of the bullish power near 60,000. If it falls again, it will directly test the bullish power at the integer level.
Although the price has rebounded in the short term and the U.S. stock market opened well tonight, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin bulls is still not optimistic. We said last week that short-term breakthroughs need to be accompanied by the activation of market data, and then the coordination of data and funds can effectively help prices stabilize, fluctuate, and change hands. Only by maintaining a certain degree of volatility on the upper track of the Bollinger Band can the downward trend of the daily line of the table be effectively repaired.
Let’s pay attention to market data and capital changes later.
Let the data speak: During the rebound, the copycat encountered resistance again, and the trading volume gradually increased.
Our data is compared with last Friday, which was the last normal trading day last week. Although Bitcoin fell on Friday night, the rebound this afternoon has basically offset the market value loss caused by Friday's decline.
However, as the market value fluctuated, the altcoins suffered heavy losses. Although the altcoins rebounded in the short term on Saturday, they became weak again over the weekend. After a weekend of adjustment, the market value share of Bitcoin increased significantly, and the altcoins suffered the biggest loss in market share. As the altcoins' share decreased, market sentiment gradually shifted from risk-taking to more conservative.
In terms of trading volume, the current trading volume is basically the same as Friday, and as we observe during the statistical period, after Bitcoin broke through 62,300, the trading volume gradually increased, especially after the fall after the high of 63,000, the trading volume surged in the short term, indicating that the long-short game is strong from the breakthrough of Bitcoin to the current position. If the trading volume increases, as long as it does not fall below the key position of the daily line, the increase in trading volume is a good thing, and a large amount of turnover is easier to stabilize. However, once it falls below the 62,300 position, the continued increase in trading volume will instead represent an increase in short-term selling pressure, which is a bad thing.
Therefore, under different trends, the increase in trading volume represents different situations.
The current performance in terms of funds is still good. The current on-site retained funds have decreased by 100 million, and the net outflow of mainstream stablecoins over the counter is 21 million, and the outflow is not large. Among them, the net outflow of Asian funds is 0.66, and the data chart shows that the fluctuations are still large. The trading volume has increased, the stability of funds is poor, and the liquidity has increased.
The U.S. funds USDC had a net inflow of 45 million, and there was a short-term reflux. However, the volatility of U.S. funds today also showed large fluctuations, and the trading volume doubled compared to the weekend. Although liquidity increased, the sentiment of funds has become less stable.
However, the decrease in the overall net outflow of funds also represents the current wavering emotions of fund holders. The market sentiment is unstable and we need to wait for the guidance of emotions.
The focus of market sentiment this week is the Producer Price Index on Tuesday and the CPI data on Wednesday. We will look at the macroeconomics and news later.
Macroeconomics and news:
Although the US stock market opened with an increase tonight, the increase will not be too good. It may be the best result to maintain the increase at the close. Currently, the stock prices of the seven major technology companies, which are the mainstays of the US stock market, have mixed gains and losses, and the sentiment is average.
Although the risk market is optimistic about this week's CPI data, this optimism will be put to the test tomorrow. Tomorrow is the release date of the US Producer Price Index, which is also one of the important data for measuring inflation. The current value of the index is 2.1% and the expected value is 2.2%. As long as the published value does not exceed the previous value, it is a positive sign.
However, tomorrow night at 22:00, Powell and ECB board member Knot will attend a meeting and give a speech. How the United States deceives the younger brothers in Europe will determine the direction of the speech. However, since it has successfully induced interest rate cuts in some European countries, it is estimated that the Fed will continue to deceive the younger brothers and cut interest rates as soon as possible. After all, maintaining the interest rate gap for a long time is not very optimistic for the current economic situation in Europe. Once this direction is followed, the hot spots of expected interest rate cuts will be magnified.
The above is just my personal guess. If this route is really followed, it will be a good thing for the risk market in the short term.
Here, by the way, let me mention the fact that Tether will be censored by the United States, which is widely circulated online. Personally, I think the probability of Tether being censored or "really" censored before the election is very small.
Many people believe that the company is being censored because many illegal activities in the world are using USDT, but don’t forget that there have been news reports before that in many virtual asset freezing interactions in the United States, Tether also has a clear position and decisive actions to help freeze on-chain assets and is very cooperative.
Secondly, most of the company assets that Tether anchors in the issuance of USDT are US dollar assets, of which US Treasury bonds account for a large portion. If Tether is launched at this time, it will undoubtedly force the company to sell US Treasury bonds. For US Treasury bonds, this is one of the current strategic goals of the United States, and the price of US Treasury bonds will not be easily damaged.
To sum up the above two points, I conservatively believe that Tether will not be liquidated or sued so easily, at least before the election. Of course, it is normal for Tether to be targeted, which depends on Tether’s position in the United States. If it is targeted in the short term, it is also because the previous financial reports are indeed excellent, which will definitely arouse envy. Secondly, it is probably targeted in the short term just to "take advantage of it."
Market summary:
Although the short-term rebound and stabilization of Bitcoin is a good thing, looking at the situation of the copycat, traders are still quite nervous. After Bitcoin stabilized above 62,300 in the short term, there was a significant increase in trading volume. As long as this increase continues as the Bitcoin price stabilizes above 62,300, the short-term increase in trading volume and turnover will help the price to bottom out in the short term and will be conducive to subsequent price breakthroughs.
As for the breakthrough from above, the focus is on the daily resistance level we mentioned today. If this position is broken, we can directly look at the monthly resistance level of 67,200. The overall environment is not good at this stage, so we must pay attention to the rise. We don’t have to chase the rise. We must pay attention to the breakthrough and stabilization before taking action.
As for the altcoins, as long as tomorrow's producer price index and Wednesday's CPI data do not show obvious negative news, and Bitcoin continues to stabilize and run on the upper track of the daily Bollinger Band, the altcoins will gradually rebound after Wednesday, so don't be anxious. However, don't be too optimistic after the rebound. If the position is too heavy, you must adjust the altcoins in your hands to reduce the position. Of course, this reduction is based on personal circumstances, not mindless selling.
For the future, I firmly believe that we will usher in a wave of altcoins and Bitcoin bull markets, so if you are trapped in the short term and cannot get out of it, you must learn to use time to exchange space. If you want to get advice, old fans can contact me privately and indicate your own ideas, whether to hoard coins or adjust positions, the target of each token, the cost price, and the position situation. If time permits, I will sort out and reply one by one.
Finally, thank you all for following Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.