Cheer up for those who are optimistic about the future market: The road ahead may be difficult, and there will be many difficulties and doubts, and sometimes people may feel desperate. But don't lose heart, there is still hope ahead!
Let's talk about the current situation first: There are a lot of debts in the market that need to be repaid, but the Federal Reserve dare not print money casually. In this way, the interest rate of long-term bonds will rise, and many risk funds will be affected. China's central bank also has to take care of the RMB, so it has to follow the pace of the Federal Reserve and slow down the pace of printing money. With these two major countries like this, how can the market rise?
Let's talk about the long-term situation: Issuing treasury bonds is like a road of no return, and the final result is to rely on printing money to solve the problem. You see that Japan has already been like this, Europe and China are about to reach this point, and the United States will end up like this. After the epidemic, the United States began to follow the old path of China in 2008, investing heavily (such as in the field of AI, which is similar to China's infrastructure) + government spending. At first, it seemed that the returns were very high, and everyone was happy. But once you rely on government investment, debts will accumulate more and more, and you will definitely fall into a debt crisis in the end. Just like Indonesia, Thailand, Argentina, and Mexico. Now China and the United States have not yet had this problem, but it is coming soon. China is supported by foreign exchange controls and US demand, while the United States is supported by the status of the US dollar. But the economy has a formula, and debt must grow with it. Unless the investment returns are particularly high, like China's reform and opening up, or there are major changes like the technological revolution, there are only two results: one is to reduce spending, the economy will decline and slow down, forming a vicious cycle with debt repayment, and finally negative growth; the other is to continue printing money, but in this way the monetary system will collapse, Argentina is a lesson learned. Now Japan and China are taking this path.
The Federal Reserve is under great pressure now because the US dollar is the pillar of the global economy. So even if it faces difficulties, it is unlikely to collapse the monetary system. But there may be some difficult times next, either because of too much debt leading to rising interest rates, or because of Trump's reduction in spending after taking office. Risk assets such as Bitcoin may also be affected.But no matter what, the Fed may eventually relax its policy, and then we may usher in a real "crazy bull market".
In the bull market, you need a high-quality qzi. If you don't know how to operate and are still confused, everyone is welcome to join! Please like, follow, forward, and leave a message!