Stimulated by unemployment data, U.S. stocks continued to rise, and Bitcoin rebounded again. Does the data support a better rise?
Hi, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced around 62,000. Bitcoin started a new round of decline at 3 a.m. on the 9th, directly touching 60,630 before a small rebound.
The unemployment benefit data in the evening boosted the rebound of Bitcoin under the background of the market and the media. The US stock market opened higher in the evening, and Bitcoin rebounded accordingly. Before falling below the key position of 60,000, the cottage gradually adapted to the volatile downward trend of Bitcoin, and the cottage gradually recovered. However, judging from the market data, although the performance was good, the net outflow of funds still could not continue to boost the market sentiment.
Bitcoin disk:
The unemployment data just now stimulated the rebound of Bitcoin, but we still say what we said yesterday, rebound is the norm in the decline of Bitcoin, especially when it reaches the integer level, it may stimulate a lot of buying around it. However, it is very important whether the stimulated buying volume can successfully break through the key position with market sentiment, complete the consolidation and stabilization adjustment of the K line, and change the short-term trend.
Most of the data in the picture can still be used from yesterday's picture, with the resistance position adjusted.
The short-term resistance above is the key position of the daily line at 63,000. If it stabilizes, at least the daily sentiment will be better.
Once the previous support is stabilized and consolidated, we will continue to look at the upper weekly EMA7 position of 65,700.
As for the support below, we said yesterday that around 61,200 can only be regarded as a buffer, and it turned out to be penetrated up and down, with no resistance.
Then we continue to look at the buying volume stimulated by the 60,000 integer mark.
If it continues to fall, it will still be the effective support of the previous wave, the weekly Bollinger band middle line around 57,000.
The RSI index has currently fallen back to around 40. If the Bitcoin price touches an oversold rebound sentiment below 30 before falling below 60,000, it will help the breakthrough around 60,000 in the short term.
Many people expect the crypto market to be boosted after the U.S. stock market opens. To be honest, the situation this week is that the U.S. stock market sentiment seems to be rising, but in fact it is tense. My only hope is that the crypto market will not attract money, let alone boost Bitcoin.
Without further ado, if Bitcoin wants to change the downward trend in the short term, it needs to break through 63,000, complete consolidation, shock, and repair and adjust the daily trend, in order to change the daily trend in the short term. However, it is still difficult at present. The current decline needs to touch the core buying volume to bring about an effective breakthrough.
Continue to look at market data later.
Let the data speak: Capital sentiment continues to be sluggish, and copycat stocks have bottomed out and rebounded!
It's time for us to speak with data again. Today's unemployment rate data stimulated the rise of the opening of the U.S. stock market. Currently, Bitcoin has started to rebound again driven by the U.S. stock market, but what is the sentiment during the rebound? Let's look at today's data.
In terms of market value, today's market value decline was smaller than yesterday. The market value of Bitcoin and Ethereum both decreased, but the market value of altcoins increased today.
In yesterday's statistics, we mentioned that the altcoins were at the beginning of the incremental stage yesterday, which means that the sentiment of the altcoins will be reversed, because the decline of Bitcoin is gradually accepted by the market. As long as it is a volatile decline, the altcoins will not panic too much. In today's data, the altcoin market value increased, the market share increased, the market share of Ethereum remained unchanged, and the market share of Bitcoin altcoins further showed that the altcoin Ethereum gradually emerged from the shadow of Bitcoin's volatile decline.
In terms of trading volume, the trading volume has not changed much compared to yesterday, and is slightly lower than yesterday's data. However, at the time of posting, Bitcoin rebounded again, and the trading data at this moment is basically higher than yesterday. In terms of data, the most active trading volume is still the copycat. When counting the data, the trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum is lower than yesterday's data, and only the copycat is higher than yesterday's data, which also shows that the sentiment of the copycat has improved from the trading volume.
The situation of funds today is not optimistic. The on-site retained funds increased by 200 million, and the net outflow of off-site funds was 355 million. Both Asian funds and American funds of mainstream stable currencies were flowing out, of which 202 million were from Asia. In addition, the fund chart showed frequent fluctuations, while the net outflow of American funds was 153 million. Funds outflow occurred in the intraday stage of U.S. stocks in the early morning, and funds outflowed again slightly before the opening of U.S. stocks today.
At the same time, attention has been paid to the decline in trading volume of funds, which indicates that the utilization rate, operating rate and liquidity of funds have deteriorated.
Although the price of Bitcoin has rebounded and the sentiment of the altcoin has improved, the capital aspect is still a disadvantage. The outflow of funds, the decline of sentiment and the reduction of liquidity are not conducive to the short-term rebound of Bitcoin. Of course, the funds in the market are still sufficient and will not fall sharply due to the outflow of short-term funds. The outflow of funds only means that the mood of some traders has deteriorated and their confidence is insufficient.
Macroeconomics and news:
There really isn’t much to say about this sector recently, with the entire market topic being whether interest rate cuts are optimistic or pessimistic.
I still stick to my personal key. We cannot figure out the expectation of US interest rate cuts through US data. If we can grasp the macro direction by relying on data alone, I believe that central banks of various countries will not study various US data so hard every day, and they will not even "cheat" with US data. Central banks can't do it, let alone us. Most of us are just analyzing and guessing.
At the same time, the United States has not decided when to cut interest rates, because the economy will be tested by the rate cut. It is important how the world views the U.S. economy, whether it is a hard landing, a normal landing, or an optimistic soft landing. This will affect people's expectations for the future of the United States. Therefore, before adjusting its posture and landing, the expectation of a rate cut is just a means for the Federal Reserve to regulate the market.
If the US dollar index falls, then we should be more hawkish and cool down the optimistic expectations. If the US debt falls, then we should be more dovish and let the US debt rise, and bring the stock market risk market along with it. The overall purpose is to regulate and balance and consolidate the world's confidence in the US. Otherwise, the US economy, finance, and credit system will collapse, and then it will really collapse.
At the same time, before the US election, internal fighting was still quite serious, so if the US dared to cut interest rates at this time, it would simply be self-destructing, unless the US economy is really that good and the economic ecology is really that benign. But if the economic ecology is really that benign, how could it warn of the risk of raising interest rates when it is raising interest rates, and frequently warn of the risk of cutting interest rates when it is preparing to cut interest rates? In summary, there is still not enough confidence.
The Federal Reserve’s future data and speeches will all be completed around the U.S. “goal”. Only after the election is successfully completed and internal conflicts are reduced can we dare to talk about interest rate cuts and economic expectations.
Of course, we still have to care about short-term fluctuations regarding the impact of US data on risk markets.
Market summary:
Many people are optimistic about the current rebound of Bitcoin and expect it to reach a high level, but I may have to pour cold water on them.
In terms of current market data, capital sentiment is not optimistic. Although there is sufficient capital in the market, the suspension or outflow of external funds represents a lack of follow-up strength or sentiment.
At present, Bitcoin not only needs to rebound, but also needs to rebound and break through key positions. The most important thing is to hold the key positions and stabilize, consolidate, fluctuate, change hands, and then effectively stabilize emotions before looking at higher breakthroughs. After all, the current breakthrough is not a new narrative ignited by emotions, which is a big positive. Therefore, the volume and emotions required for the rebound breakthrough are very important. However, the data feedback brought about by the current market rebound is not optimistic.
Of course, during a decline, we don't need to be pessimistic about the bear market. The market's volatile decline is just a natural decline in sentiment after high sentiment. As for how much it will fall, it depends on how much buying volume is stimulated by the market consensus, and then how the market hype and sentiment stimulate internal buying and external capital inflow support.
As for the altcoins, as long as Bitcoin stabilizes above 60,000 over the weekend, it is an acceptable safety range for the altcoins, so the altcoins will have more opportunities over the weekend. Now the volatile decline of Bitcoin has made the altcoins gradually immune and adapted. The opportunities given to the altcoins over the weekend are also an opportunity for everyone to adjust their positions. It does not mean that you have to increase your positions blindly if there is a market for the altcoins over the weekend.
In the end, if you have light in your heart, the road ahead will naturally be clear.
Finally, thank you all for following Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.