Many people do not understand that choice is more important than hard work. Even if they understand, they still do not have the ability to judge the choice. In 2008, A chose to sell the house to invest in stocks, and B chose to sell all the stocks to buy a house. Millions of wealth was transferred between A and B. In 2008, A chose to graduate and join 58.com, and B chose to join Nokia. Ten years later, A achieved his small goal because 58 went public, and B worked hard to get to the middle level, but the company was gone.

Everyone has the limitations of the times. Times>Industry>Company>Individual. In the face of the times (be it trends or dividends), personal efforts are the smallest. In an ascending elevator, whether you are squatting, standing or lying, the result is ascending.

So, what to choose? Increment! Wherever there is increment, go there!

In the stock market, only by continuous optimization and mutual internal plundering of resources can they survive, so wars are easily triggered. Historically, most wars were caused by internal conflicts and resource scarcity. For example, during the Song and Yuan dynasties, nomadic peoples often went to the Central Plains to "borrow" materials due to material scarcity. The frequent borrowings led to small-scale frictions and large-scale wars. The Japanese invasion during World War II was also a case of external transfer of internal conflicts.

Looking at China's rapid development over the past 30 years, if we review the economic development of Japan and South Korea, we will find that there is no difference. However, because we are in China, we will infinitely magnify the miracle of our own economy. This is a psychological effect. However, objective analysis will find that other countries have experienced a period of rapid economic development, and their GDP has grown by more than 10% for several consecutive years. Everything is a natural law and a cycle.

In the 1990s, state-owned enterprises went into business, and self-employed people could make money. Retailing was booming, represented by Huang Guangyu of Gome; in the 2000s, urbanization construction, buying houses could make money, represented by Wang Jianlin of Wanda; in the 2010s, mass innovation, mass entrepreneurship, Internet+, represented by Jack Ma of Alibaba. The completion of the handover of the richest man in China at each stage actually foreshadows the replacement of the industry. If from this perspective, CZ was named the richest Chinese in 2022, this may mean that the next wave of industry dividends is in crypto!

Of course, CZ's status as the richest man is not recognized in China. If he is excluded, then the richest man in recent years returns to Zhong Shanshan of Nongfu Spring. What does this mean? You can figure it out for yourself. From 2010 to 2020, China has been innovating continuously, including mobile payment, food delivery, shared bicycles, Douyin, etc. From 20 years to now, have there been any epoch-making products or life-changing applications?

Tencent's market value is more than 1 times that of Alibaba. Why? Tencent's products are more borderless, or the overseas market is more imaginative, whether it is games or social networking; Alibaba's main business Taobao has long been saturated with users in China, and has to endure market competition from other competitors such as JD.com and Pinduoduo. It has long shifted from incremental market to stock market competition, and its growth imagination is limited.

If a company has a clear business model and its annual costs, profits, and cash flows can be clearly calculated, it will be easily priced by the market and lose its valuation premium. Why is Tesla's market value 10 times that of GM? Is it because of the automobile manufacturing industry? No, it is because Tesla uses clean energy, data collection, and autonomous driving. The market cannot accurately determine whether it is a technology company or a manufacturing company, so the future is full of imagination and has an overvaluation.

China, once known as the world's factory, has the world's most complete industrial system and excellent manufacturing capabilities, but its internal demand has long been saturated. Instead of involution, it is better to export mature business philosophy, management experience, and manufacturing capabilities to Africa, Southeast Asia, Mexico and other places. These places are to domestic companies just like China was to American and Japanese companies 20 years ago. The world is an integrated economy, and those places have huge market potential and incremental space, just like replicating China's rise. Seizing the incremental space is seizing the dividends of the times.

Here are a few examples: 1. My friend's company makes automation software. He only bids 200,000 yuan in domestic securities companies, and he may not even win the bid. But in Dubai, he doesn't need to bid. Huawei directly specifies that the same set of things sells for 200,000 US dollars. 2. My classmate's father has been doing civil engineering in China for more than ten years. In 2021, he went to Laos to do land reclamation. He said that he couldn't make money in China, but he could go abroad, and the round-trip air tickets were convenient. He is an old man in his 50s. When asked if he hired a translator, he said that he could just use his mobile phone to translate. Many young people don't have this kind of drive, which is admirable.

Coming back to the topic, why choose crypto? Because of the increase!

The economic size of cryptocurrency is still a baby compared to the traditional market. The market value of 2.45 trillion is 1/5 of A-shares and 1/20 of US stocks. The approval of ETF means that the compliance channel is open. The issuance of Hong Kong ETF has opened up the channel for domestic funds to buy through QDII in disguise. This is expected to happen in the future. The wheel of time rolls forward, not subject to personal will.

This means that holding BTC and ETH, even if you do nothing, you can still be friends with time. As long as there are people around you who don’t hold them, then these people may become the incremental ones to help you in the future!

Nothing is eternal, and the dividends of crypto will eventually pass. Grasp what you can grasp, and give up what you should give up. The world changes, the clouds roll and the clouds disperse, and the white horse passes by in a flash.