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薛定谔的猫叔
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Macroeconomics and news: There is nothing much to say about the macroeconomics. In the near future, we will see how the Fed uses macro data to control market expectations and sentiment, and regulate the US Treasury and the US dollar, and the US stock market. The risk market is too optimistic about the expectation of a rate cut at the end of the year. At present, the speech of the Fed Vice Chairman shows that he is preparing to cool down the optimistic expectations. There will be more speeches by Fed officials this week. Everyone should sit tight and see how to play with market expectations. #BTC走势分析

Macroeconomics and news:

There is nothing much to say about the macroeconomics. In the near future, we will see how the Fed uses macro data to control market expectations and sentiment, and regulate the US Treasury and the US dollar, and the US stock market. The risk market is too optimistic about the expectation of a rate cut at the end of the year.

At present, the speech of the Fed Vice Chairman shows that he is preparing to cool down the optimistic expectations. There will be more speeches by Fed officials this week. Everyone should sit tight and see how to play with market expectations.

#BTC走势分析

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薛定谔的猫叔
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Let the data speak: Bitcoin is falling, and the sentiment of the cottage market is getting better!

With the new round of Bitcoin's decline from last night to now, the proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased, and the largest market value loss is the cottage market. At present, half of the market value decline basically comes from the cottage market.

However, in terms of trading volume, the cottage market's transactions are decreasing during the decline. This situation indicates that the cottage market has lost market value as the cottage market falls, but the selling sentiment of the cottage traders is weakening, and more people are choosing to wait and see and not sell. In other words, the recent decline of the cottage market has made traders numb and choose to continue holding. After this sentiment becomes stable, the cottage market will slowly become less liquid, and once the market stabilizes, the cottage market will have the opportunity to start a rotation rebound. It can also be regarded as an oversold rebound.

Although Bitcoin's trading volume increased during the decline, we learned from temporary observation data in the early morning that the 5 billion trading volume came from the false breakthrough of Bitcoin's 4-hour upward last night, that is, the upward breakthrough at the beginning of the 4-hour last night directly brought 5 billion trading volume in the short term. With such a small amplitude, the increase in trading data indicates that the long-short game is strong at this position, and the current result is that the long game has failed in the short term. Excluding the short-term surge of 50, the trading volume of Bitcoin has also decreased as it fell, but the decrease is not large.

In terms of funds, the retained funds on the market increased by 200 million, and the net inflow of mainstream stablecoins was 116 million per day.

The net inflow of Asian funds was 95 million, and continued to flow in, but the Asian fund band was still large, and the daily fund inflow was reduced.

The recent net inflow of US funds is rare, and pay attention to the US fund fluctuation chart. Today's highest inflow of US funds increased by 200 million compared with yesterday, but after the inflow, it is facing continuous outflow. At around 21:00 on the eve of the opening of the US stock market, it is still in an outflow state. Prove that US funds are still in an unstable state.

However, the return of US funds means that the mood of US traders is gradually improving. I hope that this net inflow can continue. The continued inflow of US funds also means that the confidence of US traders is constantly increasing, which will help the price of Bitcoin rebound.
#BTC走势分析
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. See T&Cs.
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宏观经济与消息面: 关于这个板块,最近真的没有太多可讲的,市场整个话题就是降息是乐观还是悲观。 我依旧坚持我的个人关键,通过美国数据,我们无法摸清楚美国降息的预期,如果单靠数据就能掌握宏观方向,相信各国央行也不会天天苦兮兮的研究美国各种数据,甚至也不会美国数据“骗炮”了,央行都做不到,我们更难,大多数都是分析猜测。 同时,对于美国何时降息,他们自己也没有决定,因为降息要面临的经济接受考验,全球如何看到美国经济很重要,是硬着陆,正常着陆,还是乐观软着陆,这都将影响人们对美国未来的预期,所以在调整好姿态落地之前,降息预期只是美联储调控市场的手段。 美元指数跌,那就鹰一点,给乐观预期降降温,如果美债跌了,那就鸽一点,让美债升升温,并且顺带带上股市风险市场。整体就是为了调控平衡,巩固世界对于美国的预期信心。不然美国经济崩,金融崩,信用体系崩,那么就是真的崩。 同时美国大选之前,内斗还是比较严重,所以这个时候敢降息,简直就是玩自爆,除非美国经济真的这么好,经济生态真的那么良性,但是真的如此良性的经济生态,怎么会在加息的时候提示加息风险,准备降息的时候又频繁提示降息风险呢?总结还是没有足够信心。 之后的美联储数据,讲话,都将会围绕着美国“目的”来完成,顺利完成大选,让内部冲突减少,才能敢谈降息,敢谈经济预期。 当然,对于美国数据对与风险市场影响,我们依旧要在乎短期波动。 #BTC走势分析
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用数据说话:资金情绪持续低迷,山寨触底反弹! 又到了我们用数据说话的时候,今天失业率的数据刺激美股开盘的上涨,目前比特币在美股的带动下再次开启反弹,但是反弹中的情绪如何,我们来看今天的数据。 市场市值方面,今天市值跌幅对比昨日较小,比特币,以太坊都是市值减少的,但是山寨今天出现了市值增幅。 在昨天的数据统计中我们提到,山寨昨日属于开始增量的阶段,意味着山寨的情绪将会得到反转,因为比特币的下跌慢慢被市场接受,只要是震荡下跌,反而山寨不会太过恐慌。今天的数据中,山寨市值增加,市场占比增加,以太坊市值占比不变,比特币山寨市值占比,进一步说明山寨以太坊逐渐走出比特币震荡下跌的阴影。 交易量方面,对比昨日的交易量变化不大,小幅度低于昨日数据,不过在发文时间,比特币再次反弹,基本此刻的交易数据是超过昨日的。而数据方面交易量活跃量最好的依旧也是山寨。在统计数据的时候,比特币以太坊交易量是低于昨日数据,只有山 寨是高于昨日数据,从交易量方面也说明了山寨的情绪好转。 资金方面今天不容乐观,场内资金留存增加2亿,场外资金净流出3.55亿,主流稳定币亚洲资金与美国资金都在流出,其中亚洲资金流出2.02亿,并且资金图表现波动频繁,而美国资金净流出1.53亿,在凌晨美股盘中阶段出现资金流出,今天美股盘前资金再次小幅度流出。 同时,关注到资金的交易量下降,代表资金的利用率,操作率以及流动性变差。 虽然目前比特币价格出现反弹,山寨情绪好转,但是资金方面依旧是一个弊端,资金外流,情绪降低,流动性减少,这是不利于短期比特币反弹的。当然,场内资金依然充足,不会因为短期资金流出而出现大幅度下跌,资金的流出,只是代表部分交易者的情绪变差,信心不足。 #BTC走势分析
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