Bitcoin market situation:
At present, the intraday Bitcoin rebound touched the weekly EMA7 and fell back significantly. The time that contributed to this wave of rise was also the European session. How much of the Asian session power is currently uncertain. With this wave of rebound and rise, the price once again consolidated its position on the upper track of the daily Bollinger Band.
The previous key daily resistance level became a short-term support after the breakthrough, around 63,500.
The resistance level for continued rebound above is the weekly EMA7 near 66,200 and the upper daily line near 67,300.
Once the short-term price breaks through the daily resistance level of 67,300 and stands firm without falling, the market sentiment will tend to be optimistic and bullish.
For the support below, except for around 63,500, once it falls below, we will continue to look at the position of the integer level. At present, this wave of rebound fell back to 65,000. I don’t know if it triggered the exit mechanism of a large number of holders at this position. The relevant data still needs to look at the situation on the chain.
Let’s take a look at the market data and capital changes on Monday later. Whether Bitcoin can continue to break through tonight depends on the situation of the U.S. stock market. Before the U.S. stock market opens, we should pay attention to whether U.S. funds are being sucked out. If so, we need to see the return of funds after the U.S. stock market closes. If the U.S. stock market performs well tonight, whether Bitcoin can use sentiment to break through the upper resistance will become very critical.
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It seems that my idea of the Federal Reserve temporarily giving up the US stock market some time ago is a bit biased. According to last week's data, the Federal Reserve still wants to maintain the strength of the stock market by guiding the market's optimism in the expectation of interest rate cuts. This also shows from another perspective that the United States needs to stabilize the liquidity of the stock market to facilitate the provision of sufficient "water source" for subsequent interest rate cuts. Of course, this will be a good thing for the risk market in the short term.
However, the problem remains. Once the expectation of interest rate cuts is optimistic, the profitability of US stock companies and even the profit expectations of technology stocks and the actual situation of financial reports will face pressure challenges. Of course, the market's expectation of extending the life of the US stock market this time can continue to the next financial report cycle.
The entire US stock market rose well before the market opened. Among technology stocks, Apple fell slightly before the market opened because of Berkshire Hathaway's reduction of holdings last week. Asian stock markets and Nikkei closed with a decline, and A shares led the rise in Asian stock markets.
The actual situation of the US stock market tonight depends on whether the actual market traders buy it after the opening. At present, foreign media reports are encouraging market optimism, but for actual traders, whether this encouragement will buy it is hard to say at present.
The currencies in the Asia-Pacific region are once again experiencing depreciation and short selling. Although the US dollar index is also falling, the currencies in the Asia-Pacific region are still weak compared to the US dollar.
The 10-year US Treasury bond fell below the key 4.5%, currently 4.479%, which is a positive sentiment for the risk market.
In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas attacked each other again, and the situation of peace talks is currently unstable. The international crude oil price rose slightly to US$83.67, and the international gold price rose again, currently remaining around 2320.88.
The CME Bitcoin futures index is currently quoted at 64,600, continuing to maintain a positive premium of about 300 points with the spot, and the futures market sentiment is temporarily normal.
Bitcoin fell sharply in a short period of time after touching the weekly EMA7. Although the price continued to remain on the upper track of the Bollinger Band, whether it can continue to break through, we will look at the Bitcoin market later.
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