The market currently expects CPI data for next Wednesday:
Unadjusted CPI annual rate in April, previous value 3.5%, expected 3.4%
Seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate in April, previous value 0.4%, expected 0.3%
Seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate in April, previous value 3.8%, expected 3.6%
April core CPI monthly rate, previous value 0.4%, expected 0.3%,
The above data are the previous and expected values of the current market, for record, because before the data is released, the expected value may change due to changes in market expectations.
Some fans asked about personal expected data, just share and discuss briefly, not as investment advice.
The expected CPI rate should be in line with expectations and lower than the previous value, showing the result of inflation being controlled, and it is currently known that domestic crude oil prices in the United States have been effectively reduced in April.
The expected core CPI rate should be closer to the previous value, or even the same as the previous value. The core CPI excludes energy and food data, and continues to use inflation control to face pressure to suppress the market's overly optimistic interest rate cuts.
PS: Personal data is not rigorous enough because it lacks a lot of data references and is only for entertainment. Don't ask why I don't look for data, because I'm lazy!
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At 21:00 on Monday, Fed officials will speak.
At 22:00 on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell and the ECB Governing Council will attend a meeting and give a speech. This is basically an opportunity for Powell to paint a pie for Europe. If the theme is to highlight the overall strength of the United States and its control over the economic crisis, he may once again strongly emphasize that there is no problem in maintaining high interest rates.
At 20:30 on Wednesday, the US CPI data will be released, including the April CPI monthly rate, the April CPI annual rate data, and the April core CPI monthly rate data. How will the data look?
It depends on whether the Fed wants to boost US bonds or the US index. The data is not conducive to the expectation of a rate cut, but good for the US index. The data is good for the expectation of a rate cut, good for US bonds, and by the way, risk markets such as US stocks.
By the way, many new friends may not understand the meaning of the data. The monthly CPI rate in April is compared with the CPI data of the previous month. The annual CPI rate in April is compared with the data of the same month last year. The monthly core CPI rate in April is the CPI data that excludes the food and energy in residents' daily consumption. The core CPI is a relatively stable inflation data because it excludes the food and energy prices that fluctuate greatly due to seasons, and only focuses on the price changes of goods and services. Seasonally adjusted and unseasonally adjusted are also the difference between including seasonal factors and excluding seasonal factors. On Thursday, the data on US housing, industry, imports, etc. can refer to the authenticity of the CPI data of the previous day and the expectations of the future PCE index. In the early hours of Friday, the speech of the Federal Reserve officials continued. By the way, many people today said that Trump was wrong to appoint Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve because he was not professional enough. In fact, from the perspective of pure people's livelihood and economy, this is true. However, the current purpose of the United States is not to focus on people's livelihood and economy, but how to make the Federal Reserve cooperate to complete regulation. Therefore, Powell just needs to be obedient, and it doesn't matter whether he is professional or not. Don't think I am distorting the situation in the United States. These recent actions by the United States have basically refreshed people's impression of human rights in the United States. Now, in order to fight internal affairs, the United States is basically no longer trying to cover up anything.
Next week, the market will be affected by the Fed's data and speeches. In fact, the recent data has made the risk market more nervous. The fact that the US stock market has risen several times this week but has not continued to the crypto market shows how bad the market sentiment is. The frequent data impact has made the market bullish sentiment exhausted. At this time, only a "heart shot" can help.
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