BTC almost fulfilled yesterday’s forecast of a rebound to EMA 50 of the four-hour timeframe, giving +2% net movement. They gave a forecast based on the “Cheap” signal from the trend reversal indicator.
But buyers were unable to fully develop their activity; the price at the moment reached only $64,366 instead of the predicted $64,630. All four-hour candles during this growth closed below the volume level of $64,120.
The local growth trend is already under threat, but it is worth remembering that#BTCfutures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ended at $64,530 on Friday. This is a “magnet” for the resumption of trading this night.
We note on the four-hour timeframe on the CME that the gap since April 12 has not yet been completely closed. It is not on the daily or two-hour timeframe, so its significance is less. But on the four-hour chart there is also an open range - $67,335-$67,440. In the event of a breakdown of EMA 50 and 200 on this TF, the probability of closing the remainder of the gap, removing liquidity behind the high on April 23, is high. By the way, the EMA of the 50 day TF on the CME, unlike the spot one, is lower than the current rate, by $62,885. Acts as support.
For spot, the key level is still $67,000. A breakdown of which could trigger the development of PG&P with a target, for now, in the region of $74,530. But while the spot price cannot break through the EMA 50 and 200 of the four-hour time frame, the EMA of the 50 day time frame (currently $64,569) - it’s too early to talk about this scenario.
Well, we are waiting for a reversal of the BTC Volatility Index and imminent significant movements in the BTC rate. Today, logically, is the last day of the Index decline. Further growth of the Index either through a range or through a V-shaped reversal.
