Affected by the conflict between Iran and Israel today, gold and the US dollar soared in the morning, and Bitcoin fell below 60,000 again. However, with Iran's response to the conflict, it can be seen as slowing down further deterioration. It is not right for gold and the US dollar to soar at the same time. The rise of the US dollar is related to the fact that a voting member of the Federal Reserve said today that there may be no interest rate cut this year, but I think it is all talk. Whether to cut interest rates, when to cut interest rates, and how many times to cut interest rates all need data support. It is useless to talk. Yesterday, the overall net outflow of ETFs was 69, and the main outflow was still Grayscale. Others were buying. BITB, which flowed out for the first time yesterday, came back today. Grayscale's overall outflow is almost more than 50%, but the momentum remains unabated. This is indeed completely beyond my expectations. Of course, this is greatly related to the trend of US stocks. After the Federal Reserve began to shrink its balance sheet in 2022, the minutes of last month's meeting showed that the Fed began to consider slowing down the pace of shrinking its balance sheet. This is also a turning point in economic policy, representing a gradual shift from tightening to easing. Currently, it is estimated that there are about 16 hours left before the fourth Bitcoin "halving", and there are 100 remaining blocks. The fourth halving is coming. Although this time the impact of the halving may not be so great, it is still an important milestone in our bull market process.
The issuance of TRC20-USDT exceeded 57.8 billion, a record high! Since 2024, the issuance of TRC20-USDT has increased by nearly 9 billion. As of now, the number of TRC20-USDT holding accounts has reached 41 million, and the cumulative number of transfers has exceeded 1.67 billion. I don’t really care about how much it has been issued. The main thing is that there are 1.67 billion cumulative transfers, and a handling fee of 1U per transaction. Do you know why Brother Sun made so much money? It doesn’t matter what the TRON ecosystem develops like. This transfer fee is the real YIN CHAO JI.
The STH-MVRV we mentioned the day before yesterday is currently very effective. The price began to rebound near 1. This indicator can be tracked later.
Market Interpretation
Bitcoin rebounded again because of the easing of the Iran-Israel conflict. From a structural point of view, the bottom of 60,000 has been tested 4 times in a row without breaking through. The US stock market has also reached a key support level. As long as there is no major negative news in the future and the macroeconomics can no longer continue to affect the currency price, I think this should be the short-term bottom. Whether it is the bottom or not is up to everyone to judge, but as for whether it will reverse, it should not be so easy at present, because the uncertainty of whether, when and how much the interest rate will be cut due to inflation data still exists.
The two bitcoins are linked, and the exchange rate is still falling
For the cottage industry, I may consider reducing my position when the big bitcoin reaches 70,000, and reduce the position to a reasonable position. There are no other plans at present.
Today's panic greed index: 66 (greed)
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