April 16, 2024 Grandpa checks in

The market failed to form a V-shaped reversal, but rebounded slightly and then stepped back, forming a small-scale shock. The market has experienced a sharp drop, and it will definitely take time to repair. It is difficult to rebound directly in the short term, but there is definitely no problem buying at this position. If you have a good sense of the market, you can also do some swing trading. The risk at this position is definitely much smaller.

Another thing is that the fees, which have been high before, have fallen recently, and many have even fallen to negative values, indicating that the market has turned bearish in the short term. Because there are many pledged projects in this round, I guess many have started hedging. In any case, the fees are still effective. I felt that the high cost of funds was difficult to maintain before, and the recent drop shows that the risk is much smaller.

Grayscale's GBTC has continued to see a net outflow recently, with an outflow of $110 million yesterday. Although BlackRock received an inflow of $70 million, it still showed a net outflow overall. In the past two days, we have also seen some small orders of BTC transferred to exchanges, indicating that at this time point, someone must have chosen to sell for risk aversion.

For us, we started to sell at the end of this round, and now it is cost-effective to buy at the bottom, so we can buy. On the other hand, we should also be wary of this round of turning downward. After all, the market has not broken, so we think the bull market is still there, but if it breaks, there will be a bloodbath in the market, so we need more time to observe the market.

Thank you for your attention and likes.