October 16, 2024

The market is going to break through, the pressure of 65,000 points. I said yesterday that there might be a false breakthrough. After reaching 67,000-68,000, there was a wave of decline. Last night, it just hit close to 68,000 and there was a short-term decline. The lowest fell below 65,000, clearing a wave of short-term fomo bulls. I thought this trend meant that the pressure level of 65,000 failed to break through, but it slowly recovered today. This trend is a bit like the main rising wave market, and the previous sideways can also be interpreted as a wash.

In addition to the need for a breakthrough in the long-term sideways trend, the most direct reason for this wave of rise is related to the US election. According to Polymarket's prediction data, Trump's winning rate is as high as 57.9%, 16 percentage points ahead of his opponent Harris. According to this, it is basically stable, and according to polls, Trump has a slight advantage. In addition, we know that Musk is all in Trump this time, plus Trump's campaign speech supports Bitcoin, and even his family has issued tokens. It can be seen that Trump's coming to power is a good thing for the crypto market.

However, what is more uncomfortable is that this wave of market is basically just a solo dance of Bitcoin. After the altcoins generally followed the decline but not the rise, Bitcoin's market value accounted for 58%, close to 60%, which is relatively high in historical data. It can be said that Bitcoin's price is in a bull market, but the overall market is still in a bear market. More importantly, the rise of Bitcoin is not like before, directly driving the altcoins to follow suit. This market is not very healthy.

Based on this, I have not followed the position, and even considered that if this wave goes up directly, it will be reduced by 10-20% from the previous high of more than 70,000 points. The upcoming US election, including the 1-2 months after the end, is the time period when market risk exposure is most likely to be exposed, and it is also the time when black swans are most likely to occur. In addition, the market is not very healthy, so I think it is still unnecessary to bet on a direct rise.

Thank you for your attention and likes.