We use data to review the impact of previous halving events on the market:

The first halving (2012/11/28): too ancient, so I won’t mention it;

The second halving (2016/07/09):

May 2016: 70% increase in one month;

June 2016: 30% correction in one month;

July 09, 2016: The halving event occurred, and the market did not fluctuate much in the following week, and then it started a month of decline, with a drop of 30%;

After August 2016: The halving benefit was realized, and Bitcoin began to rise at a historical level, and finally came out of a bull market of one year and four months, It finally peaked in December 2017;

The third halving (2020/05/11):

February-March 2020: A 70% drop in one month, and the infamous 312 incident in the history of the currency circle occurred;

May 2020: Bitcoin increased 2.6 times in 2 months, recovering all losses;

May 11, 2020: A halving event occurred, and Bitcoin maintained a sideways consolidation of 10% in the following two months of May and June;

July 2020-October 2022: The halving benefits were realized, and Bitcoin began to strengthen, with an increase of 40%;

After October 2020: The halving benefits Completely cashed in, Bitcoin began to go out of the bull market for 8 months, with a 6-fold increase, and finally peaked in May 2021;

The fourth halving (2024/04/20):

February 2024: 60% increase in one month;

March 2024: 18% correction in one month;

April 2024: ongoing;

April 20, 2024: halving event occurred.....

To summarize:

The second halving was a 70% increase, then a 30% drop, and then another 30% drop after the halving, and then sideways for 2 months, starting a historical level pull;

The third halving was a 70% drop, then It rose 2.6 times, and then after the halving, it did not fluctuate significantly but went sideways for 2 months, and then began to pull up at a historical level;

The fourth halving was a 60% increase first, and then a 18% drop. Please stay tuned after the halving;

So if we analyze the trend of Bitcoin based on the halving event alone, first of all, the long-term cycle after the halving is definitely good for Bitcoin. Generally, it takes 2 months after the halving for the good news to begin to materialize. Secondly, according to historical conditions, there is no obvious pattern of rise and fall in the 3-4 months before and after the halving; finally, the halving trend in 2020 needs to consider the special situation of the epidemic, and the halving trend in 2024 needs to consider the special situation of ETFs