Bitcoin disk analysis:
Bitcoin never broke through the pressure level brought by the weekly line during last week's rebound, and the trading volume last week was obviously declining, and the same is true today on Monday. Coincidentally, the Federal Reserve data supports the theme that there will be no downward trend in the short term. In addition, the rate cut this year has been reduced to less than 70 basis points, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has increased, causing the risk market to also be sucked. The crazy rise in the gold market has more or less robbed the crypto market of funds.
Bitcoin is also the beginning of April on Monday, and it did not get off to a good start. It is currently falling back. However, the good news is that the support below moves up and becomes stronger. The space for short-term price declines is limited. The bad news is that once the key support falls, If it breaks, the situation may be ugly.
The current resistance levels for the short-term upward rebound are 70,000, the middle line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band, 71,500, the upper line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band, and 73,500, several pressures above the daily Bollinger Band. The weekly resistance level that has been blocking Bitcoin's rebound last week has reached around 74,000.
During the current short-term decline of Bitcoin, many people are worried about a major correction. Let’s take a look at the support situation and the mechanism for punishing a major correction.
The first support, 68,000, is a short-term support with slightly stronger support strength. This support is provided by the middle line of the daily Bollinger Band. Obviously, in the current price fall, the middle line position of the daily line has become a support that will be tested.
The second support, 67,300, is short-term support. The support strength is weak. This support is provided by the 4-hour EMA200. The support strength is weak. It is a buffer for short-term decline and cannot be used as a strong support.
The third support, 65,600, is a short-term support with strong support strength. This support is effectively supported by the weekly EMA7 and the monthly Bollinger Band. The support strength is the strongest support in the short term.
Many people are worried about more severe corrections. The deepest correction at the daily level is around 62,800, the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The mechanism that triggers the correction at the daily level is to fall below the first support. Once the first support falls below, the price below There is room to fall to the bottom of the daily Bollinger Bands.
However, there is a core monthly support during the daily correction period. Yes, the monthly Bollinger Bands of Bitcoin that we were paying attention to before were online. After this week’s update, the data reached around 65,600. This support is strong and belongs to the short term. The strongest support.Once the price falls below, the downward space may not be as simple as a daily level correction. And once it falls below the support, a strong resistance level will be formed at this position. The weekly level resistance level last week has been seen by everyone, directly blocking several rebound breakthroughs of Bitcoin.
Now once the monthly level falls below, the increase in the risk of falling below and the increase in the pressure of rebound may not be good for the short term. Of course, once it falls below, it does not mean that there will be a large-scale correction. After that, we still need to pay attention to the continuous changes in the technical aspects every day.
It should be noted that the Bollinger Bands at the daily level are gradually shrinking in shock. On the eve of the contraction breakthrough, if the price can stabilize the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, it will be more conducive to the subsequent price rebound.
The RSI relative strength index is currently at a minimum of 44, and there is still a signal of continued decline. Once the RSI index accelerates its decline and touches the oversold range, it will be beneficial for the stability of the short-term market.
LIVE
As usual, let's pay attention to the international financial market first. Some of today's data are abnormal.
Today the Federal Reserve released data on the manufacturing industry. Friends with good memories should remember that I mentioned a problem last week. The United States currently maintains high interest rates and will not cut interest rates for the time being. GDP is strong, but inflation has reduced effective data. Maybe the Federal Reserve is waiting for the United States before cutting interest rates. production industry recovery. now it comes,
The data shows that the U.S. manufacturing industry is rebounding and growing. Regardless of whether it is a real growth rebound or a data play, the data can be revised later, and this data once again solidifies Powell's theory that he will not cut interest rates in the short term. U.S. stock market sentiment fell, with the U.S. dollar index rebounding strongly to the 105 mark.
The Nasdaq and S&P fell one after another, technology stocks Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla all fell slightly, and Google's stock price rebounded slightly against the trend. Micro-strategy, Coin’s stock price was driven down by the market year-on-year.
In the Asian market, the Nikkei Index closed with a decline. Due to policy adjustments, A-shares rose slightly during the day, while the Hang Seng Index remained flat and the trend was relatively calm.
As the U.S. dollar strengthens, the U.S. exchange rate for Japanese yen and RMB increases accordingly.
The U.S. dollar index stabilized at 105, U.S. bond prices fell, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield increased significantly by 14.6 basis points. U.S. debt's scramble for global risk market funds has once again increased.
As the price of Bitcoin fell, the ETF market fell en masse.
The CME Bitcoin Futures Index is currently quoted at 68,940, currently maintaining a positive premium of 570 points with the spot price. Although the price of Bitcoin has fallen in the short term, the bullish sentiment in the futures market is good.
Later is the disk analysis of Bitcoin.
#BTC