$btc

① Is it about to reach a new high? I don't know. Has it finished rising? Not yet. Will it plunge again? Not for now. How long can the rise continue? There is hope this week. How much space is left above? Currently, 100,000 is a pressure point, but it is not a strong resistance; the strong resistance is at 【103,000-104,000】.

② How should we operate in the short term? Relying on the pressure of 100,000, set a stop loss, and we can make a short position. The focus is still on low long positions; the short-term support is 【98,400-98,700】. In other words, if conditions permit, we can go long at the support. But stop losses are still necessary, mainly to guard against the possibility that the market could reverse around the 100,000 line. Everything is a probability; it is impossible to say for sure. We won't blindly be bullish, nor will we stubbornly be bearish. The trend is a dynamic growing process; we must take it step by step to survive long-term.

③ Can we still see 80,000? Trump takes office on January 20, with 14 days left until then, which is about 2 weeks. In these 2 weeks, will there be a deep washout? Will there definitely be a surge when Trump takes office? First of all, there is no data indicating that there will be a surge just because he takes office, as this expectation was already fulfilled in November. There is even a possibility that if Trump does not mention any information regarding virtual currencies in his inauguration speech, it could cause the market to fluctuate downwards. Therefore, this is entirely unknown; it is just that the market currently has great optimistic expectations for Trump's inaugural speech, which has become the only narrative for Bitcoin right now. Additionally, Bitcoin CME futures prices have a large gap forming at 80,000, and they are currently forming a small gap near 94,800. In other words, if the price does not rise but falls instead, even if it comes down to around 94,800 to fill the gap, the short-term market is likely over. At that time, the probability of continuing to make new lows would increase significantly. Therefore, these 2-3 days are crucial; whether we can expect a new high or just a routine rebound depends on these two or three days.