Yesterday was New Year's Day and the US stock market was closed. The market has been relatively calm so far. As Crab Boss mentioned before, the current market is following the US stock market. So, with the US stock market closed for a day, the crypto circle was quiet for a day. Tonight, the US stock market is expected to open normally. Crab Boss believes there won't be any big movements in the market, as the real holiday for Americans ends on January 6.
Starting next week, as many American institutions and whales return to work, market liquidity will gradually recover, and we will also welcome the expected market movements following Trump's inauguration.
Currently, Bitcoin is still oscillating frequently in the 92k-96k range. As for market direction, we need to observe the sentiment of the US stock market tonight. On January 10, the US unemployment rate will be announced. The expected value is not out yet, but the unemployment data will likely look good. However, before the announcement, there might be some risk-averse sentiment in the market. Personally, I don't think it will have much impact, as there will only be ten days left until Trump takes office.
Although the secondary market for altcoins is not strong, the memes on the chain are flourishing, giving birth to many projects with market caps around 100 million. If you miss the first wave, you can study previous cases and wait for the projects to retrace to catch the second wave of rises. Just remember not to gamble too much, especially with AI-related MEMEs. After Musk changed his name back from 'Kekius Maximus' to 'Elon Musk' at midnight, the memes related to various concepts directly retraced. Such memes do not have sustainability without follow-up, so everyone should be cautious and if participating, make sure to act quickly.
A new market is setting sail!
After two weeks of Christmas turbulence and low trading volume, BTC is gradually injecting liquidity.
1. On the sentiment side: The current market sentiment index is at 51, which is neutral. After the recent low point of 47, it has gradually recovered. A neutral sentiment during a bull market correction is a rare atmosphere that allows for calm selection of targets.
2. The altcoin season index is at 46. It is not a crazy altcoin season right now, but even amid a general decline in the secondary market, the market cap share of altcoins remains around 50, indicating a transition between old and new altcoins.
3. On the funding side: The current Binance U leverage lending rate has risen 2% compared to last week's 10%. The demand for U in the secondary market is starting to increase, the market is recovering, and the negative premium for U inside and outside the market is gradually expanding. The AHR999 index is at 1.79, indicating a waiting area for takeoff. The bull market is entering the next phase, and staying in the market is currently the best choice.
The outflow from Grayscale after Monday's market close has already been counted in the previous data, and BlackRock has not seen continued inflows for two days. The data from the day before yesterday was impressive from Fidelity. If Fidelity hadn't flowed in over 9,500 coins, it would have ended with a net outflow for ETH.
So we can see that although ETH's price has been criticized by friends, the recent buying sentiment is quite good. ETH is still lacking an opportunity for a breakout. Besides the general rise in sentiment, this opportunity lies either in RWA or in the staking of ETH spot ETFs.
Which altcoins were most affected after Trump took office in January?
First is DOGE. There are quite a few expectations for Dogecoin this month. First, Musk changed his profile picture and name a few days ago. Although pepe didn't rise much, it did benefit somewhat. In the future, Musk is likely to make a lot of statements about Dogecoin and hint at Dogecoin images. Secondly, the abbreviations for the new departments of the American government are all DOGE. Musk will also officially become a minister this month. It is estimated that Dogecoin will be speculated again at that time. Currently, the trading volume is high, liquidity is good, and the trend is stable.
Next is pnut, the squirrel, which also has two points. First, during Trump's election, it surged by 400% in two days. When Trump takes office, the heat will surely return. Secondly, Coinbase is about to go live, and the announcement has already been made, but it has been delayed. This is likely because it has been adjusting recently, and Coinbase is probably choosing the right time. Pnut is expected to experience a second wave of explosive growth.
Also, XRP was a boost for Trump during the election. After he was elected, XRP rose to $2.9, hitting a three-year high. XRP focuses on payment functions, and if Trump pushes for it to become a cryptocurrency payment method after taking office, the price could surge again.
There are also some holdings related to Trump, such as aave, ondo, and link.
Additionally, the $16 billion compensation from FTX will gradually flow into the crypto market after January 3, which is a short-term positive news.
The larger market cycle has not ended; it is only the small cycle adjustment that lacks liquidity. There is neither a continuous rise nor a continuous fall in the market.
When there are many negative expectations, the market will weaken. Conversely, when there are many positive expectations, the market will start to strengthen.
The market is now looking forward to Trump fulfilling his promises after taking office, so I am relatively optimistic about the market in the first quarter of next year.
If Trump begins to fulfill his promises upon taking office in 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices may experience a surge.
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