BTC has been trading sideways these two days, and the volume has also been shrinking. It has been very dull, but the overall institutions still have more predictions that the overall market will go up next year. After all, after the surge in the past two months, the market still needs to be consolidated, so what will the market trend be like next? Listen to the review analysis, please note that this video is only a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #2025有哪些关键叙事？
In terms of news, Tether's CEO clarified that USD kicking will not be deemed illegal in Europe, and stablecoin service providers have a 6-18 month transition period to comply with MiCA rules. Institutions expect that Trump's inauguration on January 20 next year may also bring some surprises to the market. He is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policy. Meme's market value fell sharply in December, from $120.14 billion at the beginning of the month to $98.78 billion, a drop of about 14.61%. Analysis shows that S0L's momentum has weakened in the monthly time frame, and its market value change rate has fallen below BTC and ETH.
Let’s state the conclusion first, with technical analysis to follow:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 93000-97000, overall in a horizontal consolidation looking for a breakthrough in direction. If no negative news arises, the probability of upward movement is slightly higher. At this time, do not get overly excited and buy in fully; those who can't resist may consider a small dollar-cost averaging strategy, at least to be prepared for another 15% drop with some reserves.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate in the range of 680-720. The price movement in the past 24 hours has been much weaker than yesterday, which is speculated to be related to the fact that the airdrop date is halfway through; after all, there was a significant rise yesterday, and some holders may have taken partial profits.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3200-3600, also in horizontal consolidation waiting for opportunities. However, if BTC consolidates, it does not mean ETH won’t find its own direction, especially since institutions have been significantly increasing their holdings recently.
Additionally, from the news perspective, the recent momentum of SoL is weakening, which needs to be noted.
Next is technical analysis:
1. From BTC's candlestick chart, the trading volume over the last six 4-hour candles has been decreasing, consolidating around 95000. From the overall candlestick trend, it is expected to form a new trend within a small range to break the current stagnation. Both bulls and bears are competing, and if there isn't much negative news, the consolidation will likely adjust towards the upward angle.
2. Greed and Fear Index Observation: Currently at 73, which indicates greed, up by 1 from yesterday, within the normal range of a bull market.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0083%, ETH is 0.0088%. BTC has rebounded compared to yesterday, and the trend suggests it will quickly return to normal levels. ETH is close to yesterday's level, and the short selling energy is average.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options in the next three months: In the next two days, it will be between 95000 and 96000, the same as yesterday, with nominal amounts being very low and having little impact on prices. But at least it indicates that there’s one less interference factor for the current price.
5. Spot ETFS, US stocks are closed on Saturday and will resume trading on Monday.
6. From the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC is currently strong on a weekly dimension, neutral in 24 hours. ETH maintains neutrality on the weekly dimension and neutral in 24 hours, with selling pressure being normal.
7. From the top-exit index, it is currently in the middle-lower range, which also indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC holding index has risen to 1.35. Theoretically, it is best to be below 1.2. However, in a bull market, it is difficult to drop. If you are holding coins, you may want to buy a little to average out your cost below 1.2 to avoid completely missing out.
In short, the mainstream horizontal market is a test of everyone's patience. The summary is to avoid impulsive buying of altcoins when you see some rise; trading doesn’t need to be done daily. You should act according to your own principles, find the right opportunities, and you will reap good rewards. Just keep a balanced position, there’s no need to feel anxious every day.