Indeed, BTC and the overall market trend are still closely tied to the US stock market. In fact, the overall fluctuations are still close to the US stock market. Without a significant market movement recently, it will continue to fluctuate around the current price level. Any directional breakout will require volume support to establish a new trend; otherwise, it remains in consolidation. In this range, holding positions should not be moved carelessly to avoid missing out, and small positions can be accumulated at lows while offloading at highs to reduce costs. It's advised not to get tempted to trade volatile altcoins. This video is merely a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. #MicroStrategy增持BTC
Let's start with the conclusion, followed by news and technical analysis:
For BTC: If the US stock market does not fluctuate significantly tonight, it is predicted to fluctuate within the 93000-97000 range, moving towards a sustained upward consolidation trend. If it falls below 96000, some profits can be realized from the low positions received in the past two days.
For BNB: Expected to consolidate between 680-730. It is estimated that specific information on MEGADROP will come out, which is a small positive. The recent sustained bearish trend has provided very good support for the price. There are also analyses suggesting that BNB could exceed 1000 by 2025, so future upward trends can still be expected.
For ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3250-3550. Although institutions have reduced their holdings, as long as the US stock market remains stable, they should continue to increase their holdings. Its short-term trend is also stronger than BTC, so there is some anticipation for a small upward move in its own market.
Regarding the cryptocurrency: Lao Ma has called for a trade, but unfortunately, he didn't call for the cryptocurrency, and there are too many objects that need support. It's quite awkward; I can only wait for the next call.
From the news perspective, Brian Morgenstern, the public policy director of Riot Platforms, discussed the impact of the Biden administration's Operation Chokepoint 2.0 plan on the BTC mining industry. This plan aims to cut off the energy supply to miners and proposes a 30% tax on the energy used by crypto mining companies. CryptoRank data shows that in the 2024 ranking of decentralized exchange trading volumes, ETH ranks first with $674 billion, while Solana and BNB Chain rank second and third with $626 billion and $352 billion, respectively. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects the new debt ceiling to be reached between January 14 and 23, and the Treasury will take "extraordinary measures" to cut borrowing. Historically, raising the US debt ceiling has been bearish for BTC.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, the last two 4-hour candles have been strong, briefly breaking through the downward channel of the 4-hour chart. The key is to observe whether this breakout from 20:00 to 24:00 can be supported by sufficient volume. If it can continue to break through and the trading volume shows a significant increase compared to the last 4-hour candle, a small increase of around 3000 can be expected in the short term.
2. Greed and fear index observation: Currently at 64, which falls into the greed category. Although market sentiment is in the greed range of a bull market, the enthusiasm is not high.
3. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is 0.0116%, and for ETH, it's 0.0112%. The data has shown a significant rebound, and the willingness to hold long positions has increased.
4. Observations on the maximum pain of options over the next three months: The next three days will be within the 93000-97000 range, with nominal amounts not being high. The overall distribution over three days is gradually increasing, which is beneficial for a gradual price rise.
5. The BTC spot ETF decreased by 4430 on Monday, and the BTC spot ETF decreased by 16,500 on Monday, both showing declines. However, last night's decline is also related to the sharp drop in the US stock market. If the US stock market stabilizes tonight and institutions increase their holdings, then the decrease from last night should not be a big issue.
6. Looking at the RSI relative strength index, BTC has returned to a strong position on a weekly basis, and neutral on a 24-hour basis. Tai Fang has also returned to neutral on a weekly basis and 24-hour basis, similar to yesterday, with low selling pressure.
7. From the peak escaping index, it is currently in the middle to lower range, which indirectly indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC holding index has dropped to 1.26. It continues to be at its lowest value in a month, allowing for some small-scale accumulation of coins. However, the best timing would still be to wait for it to drop below 1.2.
Overall judgment: Currently, it is in a consolidation and solidification range, gradually digesting the previous rapid bull's increase. At this price level, a large number of chips are being traded to stabilize their costs near the current position. Current position control should not be fully invested to avoid getting washed out before the next round of sharp rises. $BTC $ETH $BNB