The past 24 hours have been uneventful. BTC and the overall market have fallen, but not much. Market makers ultimately failed to pull the price back to their expected level. From this perspective, the power of institutions and the market are more accepting of the current price. What changes may occur in the next few days? According to some institutional forecasts, how much will the mainstreams rise next year? Which mainstreams have more opportunities next year? Let's talk about it together when we review today. This video is only for personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. Click to follow and listen every day. #2025加密趋势预测
In terms of news, Santiment observed that whales transferred a large amount of stablecoins to trading platforms after the Christmas market fell, which may be a sign that the market is about to rise. Although whales may not necessarily use these funds immediately, this trend is seen as a bullish signal. Traders at Polymarket and Kalshi expect BTC and ETH to hit new highs in 2025, and predict that the United States will approve multiple crypto ETFs and establish strategic Bitcoin reserves. Polymarket expects U.S. regulators to approve multiple mainstream ETFs by July 31.
Let me first state the conclusion, followed by a technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 95,000-99,000. The overall threat of option expiration has temporarily passed. In the battle between long and short parties from last night to today, ETFs and longs have shown strong strength and have prevented the price from falling again. At present, it is expected to consolidate near the current position and then choose a new direction.
BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 680-730. It has been relatively strong in the past 24 hours. After all, the airdrop has locked up nearly 20 million coins. The selling pressure is less than usual, and there are more and more firm holders. It is suitable for grid.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3200-3600. The news has been relatively good recently, and institutions such as ETFs have also been continuously increasing their holdings in large quantities, which can be regarded as having relatively good support. It seems that at the current price, institutions are relatively determined to buy.
As for Goubi: it is relatively weak, and the decline is very frustrating. It is more realistic to wait for Lao Ma to shout. To reach a new high, two conditions may be required: the first is that BTC returns to a high level, and the second is that Lao Ma continues to shout.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. Judging from the K-line of BTC, the moving average has been fluctuating and consolidating around 96,000 in the past 7 hours, and the 4-hour line has not shown a continuous direction in the past 24 hours. The trading volume has not fluctuated significantly, and there is no volume for small increases or decreases. It can only be said that at this point, bulls and bears are still looking for a way out.
2. Greed and Fear Index Observation: Currently 74, which belongs to greed, +1 compared to yesterday, and the heat is slowly recovering.
3. The funding rate of BTC perpetual contract is 0.0113%, and that of ETH is 0.092%. BTC continues to rise, and the bulls have stabilized. More strength is accumulated during the consolidation process of long orders.
4. The biggest pain point of options in the next three months: 96,000 to 98,000 in the next two days. The biggest pain point in three months has not yet reached 100,000. It is speculated that the probability of a big rebound in the short term to more than 100,000 is small.
5. Spot ETFS BTC spot ETF increased by 4,781 on the 26th, and ETH spot ETF increased by 33,500. Institutions continued to increase their holdings of ETH, and in large quantities. It is important to pay attention to this.
6. Judging from the RSI relative strength index, BTC currently maintains a strong position in a week and remains neutral in 24 hours. Taifang has remained neutral in a week and remains neutral in 24 hours, and the selling pressure is not high.
7. Judging from the top escape index, it is currently in the lower middle, which also indirectly shows that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC hoarding index has rebounded to 1.366. You can hoard a small amount. In fact, it would be best if it could reach 1.2, but it may be difficult to achieve in the near future.
Overall judgment: After short-term consolidation, look for opportunities to continue upward. The overall long-term upward trend is relatively certain. People who believe in long-term bulls, even if they believe there will be short-term corrections, should not bet on short selling. Prepare your chips and take them when they fall. Don't sell them all when they rise. In this way, it doesn't matter whether the price goes up or down. Don't think about trading every day. You must control your hands and make relatively certain transactions. Don't bet when you open an order. This is the only way to benefit in the long run.