The review from yesterday generally aligns with the current direction. Since yesterday, BTC has continued to decline, and mainstream coins and most altcoins have been performing stronger than BTC. Among the mainstream coins, especially BNB, it has developed an independent trend. Let's discuss how it might perform around Christmas. Please note that this video is just a personal review and does not constitute any investment advice.
From the news perspective, the US crypto industry expects that the incoming President Trump will issue an executive order supporting crypto, nominate officials who support cryptocurrencies, and hope to establish a national strategic reserve of Bitcoin. Forbes predicts seven major trends for the crypto industry by 2025, including G7 or BRICS countries establishing Bitcoin reserves, growth in stablecoin market value, expansion of crypto ETF products, and tech giants increasing their Bitcoin holdings, among others. There have been no major negative news.
Let’s start with the conclusion, followed by technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: It is predicted to fluctuate within the range of 91000-97000, with panic sentiment further weakening. It is currently still in a downward channel, likely to decline or consolidate sideways; if there is a breakout of the channel, it must be a volume breakout; otherwise, the situation cannot be changed.
Regarding BNB: It is expected to consolidate between 670-710, with a strong rebound. As mentioned yesterday, issuing airdrops will likely push it towards 700, which has basically come true. The 63rd phase of BIO will lock for 10 days, which is quite enjoyable. Issuing this phase at this timing is particularly remarkable, coming after a significant market downturn. Recently, there have been six consecutive airdrops, once again proving the strength of the golden shovel. At this moment, it has drawn retail investors who were scared off by altcoins and those with low expectations for the rebound of BTC and ETH to BNB, making BNB a short-term safe haven.
Regarding ETH: It is expected to fluctuate around 3200-3600, with a stronger trend than BTC. A lot of ETFs were purchased last night, and institutional buyers continue to be bullish.
Regarding the altcoin market: As mentioned yesterday, the selling pressure has significantly decreased, and it has indeed been performing better than BTC. The main reason is that this recent crash was an overreaction, and many people hold these assets. If there is a chance to break even, it is better to focus on real mainstream coins.
Next is the technical analysis:
1. From the BTC candlestick chart, the 4-hour trend is still weak, continuing in a downward channel with declining volume and weak upward movement. From the daily MACD, it is still in a declining state with no signs of the two lines crossing. It is speculated that within 24 hours, the overall trend will still be sideways or downward. Let's see if it can hold 92232; if it breaks, it will first test the previous low of 90500, and below 90500 is the defense level at 87500.
2. Observing the greed and fear index: Currently at 73, indicating greed, which is an increase of +3 from yesterday, moving away from the neutral zone, showing that market enthusiasm is gradually accumulating.
3. Observing the greed and fear index: Currently at 73, which indicates greed, up +3 from yesterday, moving away from the neutral zone, and market enthusiasm is gradually building up.
4. Observing the maximum pain point for options in the next three months: In the next two days, it will be between 94000-96000, which has little impact on the currency value. As the date approaches December 27th, it will be better once it passes.
5. Spot ETF BTC spot ETF saw a decrease of 2880 on Monday, while the BTC spot ETF increased by 39,900 on Monday. This is why it performed so strongly last night; this increase has recaptured what was held in the previous days and more.
6. According to the RSI relative strength index, BTC has returned to a strong position on the weekly scale, and is neutral on the 24-hour scale. TAIFANG is also neutral on the weekly scale and 24-hour scale. BTC's weekly scale is actually stronger than yesterday, which is good as bull markets generally spend longer in strong ranges. Observing the 24-hour dimensions, they are mostly neutral, and selling pressure is indeed not strong.
7. From the peak escape index, it is currently in a middle to lower position, which also indirectly indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC holding index has fallen to 1.35. It continues to be at its lowest level in a month, and a slight increase in spot holdings and buying on dips now seems reasonable.
Overall judgment: The decline of BTC appears to have slowed down, and various indicators suggest that sentiment has also recovered. The rebound and oversold conditions of other mainstream and altcoins have an impact, and it is expected that BTC will continue to be suppressed before the 27th and will have difficulty breaking out. Those who are firmly bullish on the market should focus on mainstream spot assets and not panic; it will eventually go up. Some friends feel that altcoins have risen significantly in a bull market; please check the monthly charts from a few years ago to understand why they are not worth investing in.