The low of the closed daily BTC candle was set at exactly $100,000. No time for sleep, we watched both Bitcoin and altcoins after the candle closed. BTC's psychological level of $100,000 held, although the candle structure after this dump is not good for the bulls.
Candles of December 16-18 are not a pure "Evening Star" - but they absorbed all the growth of the previous four days + a breakout of an important volume and mirror level of $101,376. If on hourly TFs the level of $102,757 showed importance, then on the daily one - exactly $101,376. The price expressively consolidated under it on December 6-14 before it impulsively went to a new ATH.
Plus, although there were not so many (relatively) liquidations in a day, the candle of December 18 looks worse in terms of the reaction of BTC bulls than the candle of December 5 (huge doji) and December 9 (noticeable shadow from below). The bulls' firmness in buying off the correction has wavered this time. Apparently, the positive sentiment will also begin to decline.
Until the price on the daily TF returns above $101,376, it is reasonable to expect a test of other volume supports:
- 99 481$,
- range of $97,553-$98,433. At the beginning of it, there is now EMA 50 of the 12-hour TF, which was tested on both December 5 and 9. There have been no closes below it since October 9, when the price was still around $60,000.
Locally, on a younger four-hour TF, according to our indicator there is a structure of a potential low and this is a chance for a reversal. The third and last candle is the current one.
It is acceptable for it to rewrite the low. But within the framework of the reversal idea, the low of this or the previous (i.e. $100,000) candle should already become the extreme from which the reversal occurs. After the current candle closes, the low cannot be updated today to preserve the structure. According to our indicator, the last, third basic correction target remains on the four-hour TF - $98,997. Accordingly, if it is to be closed, it will be in the next 3 hours.
Separately, we note that despite the recent decline, the price of#BTCaccording to our indicator remains in a stable uptrend on the 12-hour TF (started on October 14 with a rate of $64,920) and on the daily TF (started on September 18 with a rate of $61,759).
The correction that has taken place has reset the ascending candle structures on these TFs. Which is generally a plus, because they were already at or near the highs. Now the growth can continue. But it is important not to catch a false start here.
For us, the signs of#BTCreturning to growth after the dump will now be:
- price consolidation above EMA 50 of the four-hour TF (currently $107,711),
- return to a stable uptrend on the 30-minute, or better yet, hourly TF,
- closing of the daily candle above $101,376, or better yet, $102,757.
Until then, the asset remains locally in correction.
We predicted a reversal of the BTC Price Volatility Index upwards from December 18-20. On Saturday, December 14, we wrote: "We are waiting for BTC volatility growth to return on December 18-21." We expected that this could be a pump within the Santa Claus rally 😬. But Santa has screwed retail again. But the volatility reversal has apparently already happened, and very effectively. Let's wait for the downward candle structure to break to estimate until what date volatility will grow.
