Market expectations for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate in 2025 are now even more pessimistic than the Fed's own announcement.

According to #CMEGroup, expectations are for a pause in seven meetings and only one, on July 18, for a reduction of 0.25 percentage points.

Recall that the Fed forecasts only a reduction in the rate in 2025, totaling 0.5 percentage points. And another 0.5 percentage points in 2026.

Expectations for the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on January 29:

- 93.6% - pause.

- 6.4% - reduction of 0.25 percentage points.

This will be the first month of the year, with plans to reduce a maximum of two times a year, and Powell has clearly indicated that inflation is more important than the labor market.