Market Outlook: Analysis of CPI Data and Expected Rate Cuts

The estimated value of the CPI data to be released has rarely dropped below 3%, and the inflation rate is currently more than 2%, while the interest rate is higher than 5%. From this perspective, a 50 basis point (BP) rate cut is not impossible. However, considering the current market reaction, unless there is a systemic crisis or major emergency, the probability of the Fed's first direct rate cut of 50BP is still low. If the rate cut is really 50BP, the investment market will face severe shocks. Too fast a rate cut may lead to poor inflation suppression effects. Once inflation data rises again, it may bring us back to the era of high interest rates.

In addition, the Biden administration and Trump have reached a consensus on a plan for a US national sovereign fund. The sovereign fund will be funded by the government for investment and financing operations. However, under the "America First" policy framework, this part of the funds will most likely not be invested globally, but will be concentrated in the US domestic market, such as US stocks, to increase government revenue. This will inject more liquidity into the market.

The Bitcoin market is also currently in a key resistance range, and the FOMC meeting is coming soon. The market expects news of a rate cut at that time. This moment could be a turning point for the market. If the price of Bitcoin falls, the support level of around $52,000 will become an ideal entry point. Of course, at this stage, there should be very few investors in the market who are completely short. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国经济软着陆？ #美联储何时降息？ #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $BNB