**Crazy altcoin season is coming: are you ready? **

With Bitcoin's market share rising to **58%**, the altcoin season may come at any time. When Bitcoin's market share approaches 60% from 58%, the market may show a downward adjustment trend. At the same time, Ethereum's ratio relative to Bitcoin is also close to the bottom. With the upcoming interest rate cut and liquidity return, altcoins are expected to usher in a wave of crazy market conditions, and investors can adjust their positions in time.

At present, not many people in the market are paying attention to the last drop that may occur on the day of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, the market is changing rapidly, and strategies need to be adjusted in time according to the situation. When the market panics, don't forget to pay attention to fundamental indicators such as **Whale Hoarding Index** and **Short-term Holders Forced to Hold Long-term Change Index**.

In addition, Tether is expanding more blockchains to issue USDT, which reflects from the side that more stablecoins are flowing into the market through different chains. USDC is also moving in a more compliant direction, which will facilitate more funds to enter and accelerate the development of the market.

Get ready for the altcoin feast that may come! #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #比特币年底能否突破10万美元？ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Market Outlook: Analysis of CPI Data and Expected Rate Cuts

The estimated value of the CPI data to be released has rarely dropped below 3%, and the inflation rate is currently more than 2%, while the interest rate is higher than 5%. From this perspective, a 50 basis point (BP) rate cut is not impossible. However, considering the current market reaction, unless there is a systemic crisis or major emergency, the probability of the Fed's first direct rate cut of 50BP is still low. If the rate cut is really 50BP, the investment market will face severe shocks. Too fast a rate cut may lead to poor inflation suppression effects. Once inflation data rises again, it may bring us back to the era of high interest rates.

In addition, the Biden administration and Trump have reached a consensus on a plan for a US national sovereign fund. The sovereign fund will be funded by the government for investment and financing operations. However, under the "America First" policy framework, this part of the funds will most likely not be invested globally, but will be concentrated in the US domestic market, such as US stocks, to increase government revenue. This will inject more liquidity into the market.

The Bitcoin market is also currently in a key resistance range, and the FOMC meeting is coming soon. The market expects news of a rate cut at that time. This moment could be a turning point for the market. If the price of Bitcoin falls, the support level of around $52,000 will become an ideal entry point. Of course, at this stage, there should be very few investors in the market who are completely short. #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国经济软着陆？ #美联储何时降息？ #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Bitcoin has achieved a small rebound after hitting the $53,000 support level. The market has already priced in the upcoming rate cut, and market liquidity is expected to recover. Next, the market may rise slowly until the rate cut date. However, be wary of possible "sell the news" events, that is, when retail investors chase high and buy, the market may experience a sharp drop and retest the support range of $51,000 to $53,000. Investors should plan their positions carefully because the real bull market may come at any time.

Regarding the US presidential election, Trump's probability of winning continues to be higher than Harris, which is seen as a positive news for the market. However, we should not pay too much attention to media forecasts or the calls of market opinion leaders, but should pay more attention to the data behind it, such as interest rate inversion, market liquidity indicators, and the number of coins held by whale addresses. These data all suggest that the real big bull market in the market is still brewing.

In addition, for altcoin investors, they should focus on those currencies with high liquidity and low market value on platforms such as Binance, and avoid blindly taking over currencies driven by VCs with higher risks. Such a strategy can reduce risks in the current and future market environment while seizing potential investment opportunities. #美国经济软着陆？ #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below the lower boundary of the descending triangle pattern it formed and then recovered quickly. However, it is still in a high-risk position and may break through the lower boundary again. Although the rapid recovery of the price yesterday temporarily eased the market's concerns, the current market situation still shows potential instability. According to previous analysis, every sharp drop in price is an opportunity to buy at the bottom when the fundamentals have improved. Although it is difficult for the market to fall below the previously set low, the price tends to rebound quickly and form a higher low, which may mark a reversal of the trend.

At present, investors should pay special attention to the market pricing behavior before the rate cut. If the market expects the economy to enter a recession, it may trigger a sharp price drop. However, according to the current situation, the Fed's management of market expectations still seems to be widely recognized by investors. At the same time, the strict regulatory measures of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the crypto market may prompt investors to move to PoW (proof of work) currencies with higher network security, thereby reducing risks.

In addition, as Switzerland, a global financial center, begins to carry out Bitcoin transactions, more and more countries and regions are gradually entering the cryptocurrency market. The continued improvement of fundamentals, coupled with the increasing sophistication of capital market manipulation, is changing the adaptability of traditional investors to market trends. The transformation of the cryptocurrency market from the fringe to the mainstream, and the SEC's crackdown on market manipulation, show the maturity of this market and the strengthening of supervision. #加密市场急跌 #非农就业数据即将公布 #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Bitcoin has shown a higher low on the daily chart, forming an upward triangle with the apex at $62,000. If the market tends to form a short-selling pattern, a downward breakout may occur near this price point, and the price may drop to the $50,000 area. However, considering the upcoming interest rate cut and other potential positive factors, this adjustment may provide an opportunity for the Bitcoin market to trigger a new round of crazy bull market. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is in an unresolved state, and the trend in the short term is unclear.

In the long run, both the giant whales that control a large number of Bitcoins and the addresses holding more than ten Bitcoins are constantly increasing their holdings, and the recent cumulative increase has exceeded 130,000 Bitcoins. This active accumulation behavior reduces the circulating supply in the market and increases the space for large-scale operations. Therefore, before the potential bull market climax, investors should be cautious in using high leverage to avoid losses in the violent market fluctuations. #美联储何时降息？ #BNBChainMemeCoin $BTC $ETH $BNB

After Bitcoin successfully stabilized above the bull support line last week, it failed to maintain its upward momentum, and the brief rebound last night also failed to break through the resistance level of $62,000. Bitcoin's future trend will depend on whether it can continue to stay above the bull support line and break through the key level of $70,000, which will be the key to launching an aggressive bull market. From a short-term strategy perspective, market big players seem to be cultivating retail investors' short-selling sentiment and strategy. This week's weekly closing is particularly critical, especially after Bitcoin rebounded to $61,000 before, or investors may chase high and enter the market.

In terms of operating strategy, it is recommended to actively buy when the price drops sharply, and adopt a batch investment (DCA) strategy in small quantities when the price is sideways, which is a more stable method. At the same time, it is worth noting that Trump recently announced the sale of NFTs, and then the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a Wells notice to OpenSea, apparently to suppress the NFT market. This behavior reflects the nervous attitude of the Democratic Party. Whether it is Biden's possible early retirement, peace talks with China, or the response of the SEC, they all show that they are under pressure. These measures also indirectly increase the possibility of Trump coming to power again. Let us continue to observe how this series of events will further affect the market. #美联储何时降息？ #BNBChainMemeCoin #Telegram创始人获保释 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Trends and Political Impact

Yesterday afternoon, the number of Bitcoins flowing into the Binance exchange in the market reached 30,000. Under the general pessimistic expectations, this batch of Bitcoin broke the support level of $61,000, causing the price to fall, which once again suppressed the sentiment of short-term holders and paved the way for the arrival of the bull market. At the same time, large holders of Ethereum have been frantically accumulating ETH in the past four days, and its accumulation has exceeded the recent outflow, which shows that large institutions and individual investors are also "paying" for the future of the market and looking for better opportunities.

From the perspective of technical analysis, Ethereum's support range of $2,100 to $2,500 is quite solid, while its upside is expected to be between $7,000 and $14,000. In addition, the number of investors with more than $1 million in cryptocurrency assets has increased by more than 90%, indicating that more and more people and institutions are entering the market.

In the big picture, Harris may be about to become president, whether in a few months or in the next term. Biden may step down due to physical reasons, providing a great opportunity for Vice President Harris. However, Zuckerberg has been ambiguous about this. He recently admitted some things about the Democratic Party, while also stating his position on Trump. This may be because he has foreseen Trump's possible actions by taking advantage of high technology.

Bitcoin Market Observation and Short-term Trend Analysis

Although Bitcoin closed strongly and looked very beautiful on the weekly line, it unexpectedly fell. As mentioned yesterday, Bitcoin closed above the bull market support line on the weekly line and above $65,000 on the monthly line, which may only be a preliminary sign of a big surge in the future. The next few weeks will be a critical period, and it is necessary to continue to observe whether Bitcoin can stabilize above the bull market support line. If Bitcoin can maintain near this key point, then future trend confirmation and reversal will be more secure. If this position cannot be maintained, a correction may be needed in the short term, but it is highly unlikely to fall below $50,000.

In addition, after closing the weekly line, Bitcoin's market share continued to rise, showing strong momentum in the market. The expected interest rate cut trend in September further strengthened the market's positive expectations. If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, it will be a positive signal. Of course, the market may react in advance before the official announcement of the results. If the interest rate cut reaches 50 basis points, the room for maneuver will be greatly increased.

Investors should pay close attention to the market trend before the interest rate cut. If the trend is healthy, the bull market of altcoins may start accordingly. In the short term, Nvidia's earnings report and PCE data on Wednesday will be key indicators that affect the short-term market trend and are worthy of investors' attention.
#美联储何时降息？ #Telegram创始人被捕 #新币挖矿DOGS $BTC $ETH $BNB

Bitcoin Trend Outlook and Potential Impact of the US Election on the Market

Bitcoin's trend has recently shown signs of a possible reversal, and its weekly chart has performed quite well. It is currently located in the key area of ​​the bull support line and the 200-day moving average. If the price of Bitcoin can continue to stabilize in this area, it may usher in a sudden surge at any time. Investors should maintain their existing positions and wait patiently for trend confirmation. Once stabilized, Bitcoin has a high probability of breaking through the all-time high of $74,000. However, the round mark of $70,000 may form a strong resistance level.

If Bitcoin fails to maintain above the bull support line, $50,000 will be a strong support level if it goes down. As mentioned in the previous point, if a decline occurs, the price may briefly touch around $52,000. At present, Bitcoin's market share also shows a strong trend in the weekly chart.

Looking ahead, whether the market soars or plummets, Bitcoin may reach a peak, followed by the bull market of altcoins and the opening of the bull market of the entire market. Regarding the US election, Trump's chances of winning are once again higher than Harris's, and most members of Trump's team are friendly to cryptocurrencies, especially with the addition of Kennedy Jr., Trump's chances of winning the presidency have greatly increased. However, no matter who is elected, it seems that it will not have a negative impact on the bull market of Bitcoin. If Trump is elected, the market may perform more strongly. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #Telegram创始人被捕 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH

There was nothing to talk about on the weekend, but considering Powell's speech at the annual meeting and the impact and concerns about the future market caused by the arrest of the founder of Telegram, many friends are asking, let me briefly explain here, first of all, Powell's speech is obviously dovish, but the reason why it is dovish is that it is likely that he will explain his achievements in the election. In the past four years, whether it is the massive money printing, the crazy interest rate hikes, and now the preparation to loosen up, he has been talking about his achievements from his standpoint, and has not had much substantial impact on the market. What can be affected is the Fed's real actions, so the substantive issues are whether the interest rate cut will be implemented and the extent of the interest rate cut and the liquidity brought back to the market. After this speech, the advantages of the US dollar and US dollar assets will gradually flow to the excellent investment market, so what needs to be paid more attention to is the size of liquidity. Let's talk about the founder of Telegram. In fact, Telegram's rapid expansion into the encryption market is also regarded by people (or the government) as a behavior that endangers its status. The success of Telegram has indeed brought more users to the encryption market, but it is still in the initial stage, and the impact may not be as great as imagined, but the publicity and promotion of mainstream media and the main force's leverage behavior are more worthy of attention. In the case of good fundamentals in the entire market (although liquidity growth is weak), don't be too early to hand over the chips, or if you think it's not okay, just don't buy $TON ! #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $TON #Telegram创始人被补

Bitcoin Market Dynamics: The Game Between Short-Term and Long-Term Holders

Short-term Bitcoin holders are experiencing a continuous purge, creating psychological pressure as prices continue to approach the average holding cost line for this group. This strategy usually leads to selling, which in turn transfers Bitcoin chips to long-term holders, whose holdings have been increasing recently. From a macroeconomic perspective, inflation caused by liquidity problems around the world, especially in the US dollar, continues to affect the price of Bitcoin, which is one of the reasons why more and more smart money and institutions are allocating Bitcoin. This is not just about pursuing profits, even as a hedging tool, Bitcoin has become an attractive option due to its growing market value and liquidity.

This cycle can easily see Bitcoin prices hit six-digit US dollars, which also simplifies why recent positive and negative news have failed to effectively push prices above $64,000. As for Ethereum, although Grayscale's continued capital outflows have not seen optimistic returns, other ETFs continue to have inflows. Holding these assets to wait for the arrival of the bull market may see altcoins also achieve more significant performance as the total market value of cryptocurrencies continues to climb. #美联储何时降息？ #比特币政策 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The labor data released yesterday fell short of expectations, but despite this, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin still showed signs of rebounding. Normally, such data would trigger market speculation about a recession, but this time the market main force seemed to have chosen to pull up rather than sell. Despite this, the price of Bitcoin is still suppressed below $64,000, and it is difficult to stabilize above the 200-day moving average, and the subsequent market trend is worrying.
In this uncertain market environment, investors can consider partially taking profits and waiting for a better entry opportunity in the market before buying the bottom. At the same time, in the current range of fluctuations, Bitcoin's spot ETF has shown continuous inflows, indicating that even in the market volatility, large amounts of funds are still being deployed.
In addition, Ethereum's ETF also showed optimistic inflows. As the Ethereum ETF launched by BlackRock gradually offsets the outflow of funds from Grayscale, the Ethereum market is expected to show stronger performance. Investors should remain patient and pay close attention to the development of these large capital layouts in order to seize future market opportunities. #劳工数据 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Future rate cut expectations and economic outlook
The key focus of the market at present is the upcoming rate cut policy, and the most direct tool to understand the strength and scope of future rate cuts is the rate cut dot chart. These charts not only indicate the potential rate cut space of 75 to 150 basis points, but also indirectly reflect the current strength of the economy. If the rate cut is large, the market volatility may increase and the trend chart will be more attractive. On the contrary, if the rate cut is small, the future bull market may be more gentle, and we may only see fierce market stretching after liquidity fully returns.
In this process, investors need to be patient and wait for the development of the big cycle. The market layout of large institutions also needs more time to gradually establish, which is very different from the rapid market pull-up in the past (such as short-term gains from 100,000 to one million). Therefore, the injection and layout of a large amount of funds require a longer buffer period.
In the short term, although the altcoin market is still full of opportunities, especially those VC coins that have been under pressure. Digital currencies with full circulation characteristics, low valuations and support from well-known investment institutions may usher in a small market in the future. At the same time, Bitcoin is blocked at a high level, and the possibility of re-bottoming in the future is still increasing. However, the continued increase in stablecoins is also injecting new impetus into the market, and these changes will eventually be reflected in price trends. Therefore, the key words are patience, patience, and patience again. #MtGox钱包动态 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $BNB

Navigating the Coming Lows and Opportunities
The current market sentiment is obviously pessimistic. Today's market rally has cleared some short positions, indicating that the highest risk period may arrive in September, when a second bottom may be reached. Media in the market are speculating that the price of Bitcoin may fall back to $50,000. If this scenario comes to fruition, it will be a good time to build positions for those investors who are under-positioned. At the same time, Bitcoin’s market share is expected to reach a high point by then.
As the U.S. dollar index continues to fall, the market appears to be reacting to an expected interest rate cut in September ahead of schedule. However, Bitcoin price remains below the 200-day moving average for three weeks, which may indicate that the recent rebound will suppress the price and trigger a second bottom. Although the market sentiment is poor, fundamentals are improving - this is reminiscent of the situation when Bitcoin was at $15,000 during the bear market, market sentiment was bad but fundamentals were improving.
Altcoins are also showing signs of bottoming out after Bitcoin, suggesting that major investors remain optimistic about where the market is headed rather than rushing to crash before the overall market falls. With stablecoin issuance also increasing, maintaining a solid position and waiting for the market to explode seems to be a prudent strategy. #美联储何时降息？ #比特币策略 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Market Observation: The End of New Opportunities in Reputation
Recently, more and more voices have declared that the market cycle has ended, and some even say that the era of altcoins is about to end. However, just as the owners of these voices are accelerating their exit, it is a good opportunity for determined investors to continue to enter the market and layout. Ethereum has not yet hit a new record high, and it has only been a year since BlackRock launched a spot ETF for Bitcoin, and the game in the market is far from over.
Data and the role of large institutions:
According to comprehensive data indicators, the real bull market of Bitcoin has not yet arrived. The overall feeling of the current market is different from that of the past few rounds, and many people have not yet understood the reasons. Large institutions such as BlackRock have exceeded the long-term presence of Grayscale in just one year. This not only shows its strong influence in the market, but also shows that it can easily manipulate the emotions of retail investors.
Miner computing power and market reshuffle:
Since August, although the computing power of Bitcoin miners has continued to increase, the price of the currency has not risen significantly. This phenomenon may cause some miners who have difficulty maintaining to exit the market. This reshuffle is actually part of the market's self-adjustment, which is intended to promote the cryptocurrency market to move forward more steadily.
Conclusion:
The current market appearance may confuse or frighten some investors, but in-depth observation and analysis will reveal the structural opportunities behind it. For investors who dare to invest in the market trough, there may be unknown rich returns in the future. #加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息？

During the weekend, it’s time to place orders and take a rest!

Boring market on weekends, weak liquidity, this weekend may be more volatile, after all, it has been consolidating for a while, but now the daily line is trending downward again, after experiencing a death cross, Bitcoin was briefly suppressed below the MA200 moving average, and the market briefly showed signs of a bear market, which may only last for about two months. When the price returns later, it will stand on the 200-day moving average again, and break upward to form a golden cross. Only then will the crazy stage of Bitcoin come. Now it can be said that it is cleaning up short-term investors, and it continues to be below the average price line of short-term holders, causing considerable psychological pressure, and subsequent chips have been seized, while long-term holders are still accumulating Bitcoin. Remember the second bottoming out, the market selling pressure has decreased, and it is expected that Bitcoin will break through the previous high again in a few months to welcome the arrival of the bull market! #比特币政策 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Market analysis of Bitcoin's search for bottom support
Last night's retail data exceeded market expectations, causing US stocks to rise sharply at the opening. However, like the recent CPI data, these optimistic retail data ultimately became fuel for short sellers, and stock prices gradually fell back in trading. In contrast, some pension funds continued to increase their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs, showing that they prefer long-term value investment rather than short-term speculation.
Market sentiment and strategic positioning:
Whether the economy is in recession or whether the interest rate cut policy is implemented, the main task at present is to manage market sentiment. This cautious strategy shows that the market structure is adjusting to prevent retail investors from having a favorable position that may benefit greatly in the future bull market. The best course of action at present is to maintain a cash position, because it is extremely dangerous to use leverage in such volatile market conditions.
Bitcoin technical outlook analysis:
Bitcoin recently hit a low of $56,000. Future forecasts show that Bitcoin may fall sharply to the $51,000 to $53,000 range, where the market's confirmed bottom may be formed. From the perspective of the time node, the market is unlikely to allow a new low below this range. However, if such an opportunity does arise, it may only exist for a short time window - perhaps as short as three minutes - which emphasizes the importance of investors' vigilance and quick response.
Risk Management and Misinformation:
Given that Bitcoin's current price level is much higher than in the past few cycles, risk management is particularly important. Recent reports about the US government moving Bitcoin, which was misreported as a sell-off and was actually transferred to Coinbase for custody, highlight that "FUD" (fear, uncertainty and doubt) in the market can mislead investors' judgment of market conditions. Investors are advised to stay informed and cautious to ensure that they do not react hastily to unverified information. #美国7月PPI低于预期 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The recently released CPI data showed that the inflation rate was 2.9%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.0. Despite the hot data, the reaction of the cryptocurrency circle and US stocks was unexpectedly cold, and both did not rise as expected, but fell instead. Combined with the rebound of the market last week, this may indicate that the market has completed the rise before the release of good news, or has digested all the good news.
Market reaction and investment strategy:
Based on past experience, good data usually pushes Bitcoin up to the key resistance level of 6.4 in the short term, and then falls back. The current market's cold reaction may be due to investors' cautious attitude towards the upcoming ETF holding price range. Combined with the upcoming interest rate cut policy, the market trend may not be optimistic in the short term. Investors need to be wary of pressure that may lead to a second bottom, and be prepared to deal with situations that may undermine the mentality of short-term holders and investors who expect interest rate cuts to drive the market.
Market liquidity and future prospects:
The difficulty of the current Bitcoin market is that multiple projects have diluted market liquidity before liquidity has fully returned. Once liquidity is fully restored, whether there is enough attraction in the market is an unknown. However, one positive thing is that Tether has begun to increase its money supply, which may help the market stabilize in the coming months. Investors should continue to pay attention to these developments to better seize market opportunities.
Conclusion:
Although the current market environment is challenging, investors should remain patient and prepare for the upcoming bull market. By closely monitoring market dynamics and adjusting investment strategies, investors can better take advantage of market fluctuations and prepare for future rises. #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美联储何时降息？ #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH $BNB