The short-term market fell last week and rebounded in the past two days, and a very obvious trend has emerged in the market: when the market goes down, it is obvious that the decline of Bitcoin is greater than that of the copycat, and when the market rebounds, the copycat is stronger than Bitcoin.
The feedback from the data is exactly the same as the visual effect. During the decline last week, the market value of Bitcoin fell by 1.3% overall, while the market value of crypto assets outside the top ten assets increased by 4.4%. This means that when the overall market is falling, Bitcoin's decline and depth far exceed those of the altcoins, with a market value gap of 5.7%. The most recent similar situation occurred in May this year. After the round of decline in early May, the market ushered in a full month of rebound and repair.
Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF ended its net outflow for more than a week, with a net inflow of 28.6 million US dollars. The Ethereum spot ETF continued to maintain a net outflow trend, with a small net outflow of 5.2 million US dollars. To a certain extent, it can be regarded as a rebound in the short-term macro funds, indirectly indicating that the low point of 52,500 last week is likely to be the bottom of this round of market.
Of course, I still have to talk to you about the technical logic. The four-hour and daily market trends of the market are currently in the recovery state of rebound indicators, and there is no significant rebound in funds on the chain. In other words, we can see a very short-term rebound at the moment. As for whether the market can reverse based on this, we can't see that step yet. Everything has to wait until the pressure level at the top is stabilized.
Therefore, whether the alt season has arrived, purely from the correspondence of the market value ratio, a more accurate interpretation should be that the alt season is preparing to arrive, and when it officially arrives, it is just waiting for a large injection of liquidity. Calculated from the high point in March, the market has been correcting for nearly six months, and most of the alts have fallen to the bottom of the market value. Now there are still large and retail investors who can sell their positions in the next big drop. The proportion has fallen to a new low. The alt market continues to fall. Unless the project party sells the chips in their hands and smashes the market to zero, there is little room.
In fact, the entire market is in such a situation, that is, it is difficult to get cheap chips if the price continues to fall, and there is no liquidity injection to pull up the market. The liquidity in the market is almost exhausted, and after a brief easing of the bulls, the market is in a stable oscillation state.
The opportunity for market changes this month undoubtedly came from the interest rate cut that took place on the morning of the 19th. 25 basis points has become the most appropriate option for the current market. If it finally comes true, what awaits us is a steady and positive trend of recovery.
iPhone 16 is out. It is a pity that an iPhone 4S several years ago could be exchanged for 13.2 pcs of iPhone, but after the market's hard work and development, today an iPhone 16 can only be exchanged for 0.014 pcs of iPhone. In the near future, as Apple continues to iterate, the number of pcs that can be replaced will become less and less. Over the years, the iPhone has been replaced by countless generations, and our youth has passed day by day. The only thing that remains unchanged is the pc, and the biggest change is also the pc!
BTC: Bitcoin's weekly chart is still in a correction trend. In my opinion, this correction is a form of high-level shock. In the short-term trend, the market is currently testing the previous chip concentration range of 57,000 to 60,300 points, and the hourly and four-hourly levels have a tendency to pull back to below 56,000 points by thousands of points. It is expected that the intraday low will test a small support range of 55,800 to 56,000 points. It will be much easier to support the next round of 57,000-point breakthrough, otherwise it will test the support of the previous low position again. The short-term reversal cannot be supported by the technical and data aspects, so let's wait and see if this range is completed.
ETH: Ethereum is still linked to Bitcoin. It will be put aside until there is an independent market.
The Fear and Greed Index was 33 during the day, and the rebound was relatively rapid. The panic sentiment was gradually released.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #美国经济软着陆？ #BTC走势分析 $BTC
