This morning at three o'clock, Bitcoin surged to 63,760 points, just 100 points away from its historical high. It was the strongest trading day in terms of bullish volume in the last four months, with market optimism stemming from yesterday's $827 million net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs. The market then experienced a brief pullback, currently adjusting at a high level.
From the trend perspective, Bitcoin has already shown signs of a market reversal in advance. The only unpredictable variable left is the US elections. However, from a macro perspective, the breakthrough of the previous high trend position for two consecutive days already indicates that Bitcoin has the possibility of reaching new highs, and the opportunities for entering the market will gradually decrease.
In contrast, many altcoins are weak and powerless. Since the bottom comment section opened the day before yesterday, I have summarized based on everyone's questions: 1. Many partners are heavily invested in altcoins; 2. Many are heavily invested in altcoins and are deeply trapped; 3. The vast majority of trapped altcoins are in the L2 sector, followed by old altcoins.
Regarding heavy investments in altcoins, whether during the last bull market or after the bear market, I have emphasized to everyone that we must maintain at least 50% core mainstream holdings. Even if you chose Ethereum over Bitcoin, at most, you won't make a profit; losing more than 50% is unlikely.
The L2 sector and holders of old altcoins seem different to me. Most of the L2 holders came in after the market showed signs of improvement at the end of last year, while old altcoin holders likely still hold from the last bull market. Historically, the current situation of L2 holders being deeply trapped is similar to how old altcoin holders were trapped during the last bull market.
So regarding how to break free from being trapped, my only logic is that after the altcoin season officially starts in this bull market, one should sell once they recover their costs, especially for those who are deeply trapped by more than 50%. Those expecting to make multiple times their investment in the great bull market are likely to hold onto those high positions until the next bull market. No matter the market conditions, there will be strategies to cope; the key is whether one can seize the opportunity when it arises.
Some time ago, a community member privately mentioned that her assets of 800,000 are now only 200,000. She asked me to estimate how many times she could multiply her investment once the altcoin season arrives and she recovers her losses. I directly replied that I couldn't estimate and emphasized that only in a bull market can one lose big money.
The difference in our thinking is that she assumes the current bull market will follow the same path as the previous one, believing that altcoins will rise significantly more than mainstream coins when the market starts. Therefore, discussing a strategy of 50% mainstream holdings now is incorrect.
I believe that many people, besides her, will have similar doubts and misunderstandings. But let's not forget that this cycle has already broken many historical patterns. Those who buy new coins instead of old ones are getting severely trapped by VC coins, and those expecting sector rotation are getting trapped by altcoins after Bitcoin's new highs. In summary, in this cycle, the profit-making effect has dropped to a very low level.
For those of us who still want to make money in this market and transcend classes, we first need to abandon our previous fixed beliefs. The skills required for selling in this bull market are extraordinarily high. Secondly, we must lower our expectations and not make overly optimistic assessments, but rather focus on outcomes within our understanding.
In this market full of hope and challenges, a positive and optimistic mindset is crucial, as is a reasonable and appropriate layout, along with an improved understanding of the industry. It's also essential to have a mindset to cut losses in case the direction is wrong. If the last bull market was a windfall for market participants, this bull market rewards disciplined and correct traders.
BTC: Bitcoin should have no suspense in reaching new highs these days. The key idea is that according to my logic, after this rally, there will be a certain pullback to provide us with another participation opportunity. Those who reduced their holdings during the previous inability to break resistance points should focus on the recent consolidation state. After short-term adjustments, I still expect a bullish trend. The four-hour support is around 70,000 points, and an upward surge is expected to reach around 75,000 points. The market state temporarily looks like it will rise first and then fall.
ETH: Ethereum's intraday performance is slightly stronger than Bitcoin's. The daily bullish resonance peak is around 2800 points. If Bitcoin maintains a small range of fluctuations, Ethereum may continue to accelerate this time. The long-term trend still correlates with Bitcoin, so we won't be making separate layouts for Ethereum.
Altcoins: Feel free to ask directly in the comments!
The fear and greed index is 77 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
