Yesterday's retail data was great, and everyone's mood was up again. At that time, I communicated with my friends that I didn't want Bitcoin to rebound immediately due to the good data. This means that there is no bottoming pattern and it will directly reverse. This has happened twice in May and July this year. Without bottoming, there is no accumulation of power, and the market sustainability will be very poor. When I got up in the morning, I saw that Bitcoin suddenly deflated in the middle of the night. Although it was unexpected, I was also slightly relieved. In fact, it feels like a good thing.
Looking back, before each big market of Bitcoin, there was a narrow range of fluctuations for one to two months:
Before the big market in October 2023, it fluctuated around 25,000 or 6,000 from August to mid-September for more than a month;
Before the outbreak in early 2023, it fluctuated between 15,000 and 17,000 for more than two months from November to December 2022;
After 519 in 2021, the bottom also fluctuated for more than two months, and then there was the wave from August to November 2021;
Not to mention the big market from the end of 2020 to May 2021, from April 2020 (312 V reverse) to the end of July, it fluctuated between 8,000 and 10,000 for more than three months, and then Europe fluctuated for more than a month in September and October.
Unlike Bitcoin, half of the US stocks did not fluctuate to the bottom and went up directly in a V-shaped rebound. My superficial understanding is that for Bitcoin, a target based on liquidity, funds and emotions, the accumulation range formed by the bottoming pattern with enough time is the basis for the subsequent healthy market.
