When will altcoins finally迎来 an opportunity for growth?
Currently, Bitcoin has reached a new high, yet most altcoins are in a correction phase, especially those on centralized exchanges (CEX), which are generally experiencing declines.
Although the total market cap of the crypto market has broken through 3.9 trillion and set a new record, this is mainly due to Bitcoin's strong performance. Bitcoin's market share has already surpassed 57.38%.
Moreover, the funding rates of many CEXs are currently unfavorable for the sustained rise of altcoins, generally remaining below 0.01%. Typically, a funding rate above 0.01% indicates a bullish market, while a rate below this value suggests a bearish tendency.
Ethereum's performance is better than most altcoins, but its exchange rate with Bitcoin is still declining.
However, last week, inflows into Ethereum ETFs reached 850 million USD, setting a historical peak.
This indicates that outside capital's interest in Ethereum is increasing day by day.
Many institutions predict that Ethereum will set a historical new high by the end of the year, and I also believe this prediction is quite likely. As long as the Ethereum development team does not encounter issues, reaching a new high is merely a matter of time.
The turnover phase of Ethereum has already ended, and it is about to enter an acceleration process.
First, Ethereum will rise, creating space for altcoins, and then altcoins will follow suit and increase.
At this moment, Ethereum seems to be ready to launch, exhibiting extremely strong momentum!
Although Bitcoin currently dominates the market, leading many to lose confidence in altcoins, I remain optimistic about the future market. In fact, everything is just beginning, and multiple rounds of favorable factors will drive the market upwards from December to March.
Do not be disturbed by those who are bearish; they claim daily that BTC will drop to 80,000, 70,000, or that there will be a black swan event triggering a significant crash.
If one continues to be bearish in a bull market, I suggest exiting early and not participating further.
Recently, altcoins have adjusted, but after the adjustment, they will continue to rise.
In this situation, it is not advisable to chase those coins that have already surged too high; rather, attention should be paid to those strong coins that have undergone a month of adjustment or have previously experienced a sharp decline, as these coins contain immense opportunities.
Although Bitcoin has once again reached a new high, it is noticeable that the rate of this round of increase has significantly slowed down, and the market supply and demand are gradually tending towards balance.
Due to the insufficient duration of consolidation at high levels, if this trend goes straight up, it will face large-scale selling pressure. If there is no extremely strong demand force to intervene, it will be difficult to drive the coin price to continue rising. Therefore, it is still determined that the possibility of Bitcoin adjusting in the short term is relatively high. Even if a sideways consolidation replaces the adjustment, it is also difficult to achieve a significant upward trend.
Ethereum is linked to this, with its exchange rate continuously testing the right-side support. If we judge the bottom has already formed based on the pattern, then the subsequent exchange rate will start a rebound trend and is expected to break through the pressure level of 0.04.
In terms of altcoins, they are showing a linked trend, and there have been no significant signs of recovery in the capital market. Only certain sectors have opportunities, and we need to wait for the speculative sentiment to recover.
Currently, a large number of altcoins are still in the bottom area, and the most frenzied altcoin season has not yet arrived, so patience is still required.
Market data shows: The Fear and Greed Index is 87.
When determining the pullback low buying point, the Fibonacci sequence is a commonly used reference for many traders. This involves key ratio points such as pullbacks of 0.382, 0.50, 0.618, 0.786, etc.
These Fibonacci points can be clearly derived simply by drawing.
Of course, even without the aid of drawing, the formula can also accurately calculate (I rarely use a computer, so I don't particularly like using drawing methods).
For example, if the high point of Ethereum (ETH) in the morning was 4024, when calculating the pullback to the 0.382 point, the formula is: highest point in 24 hours - (highest point - lowest point) × 0.382, which is 4024 - (4024 - 3835) × 0.382 = 3951.
When calculating the pullback to the 0.50 point, the formula is 4024 - (4024 - 3835) × 0.50 = 3929.5, and the actual market price happened to pull back to this position, which is astonishingly accurate.
After completing the pullback to the current point, the next step usually requires focusing on the 0.618 point.
Generally speaking, stronger support often appears in the vicinity of 0.618, which is extremely critical for judging subsequent market trends and trading decisions, making it worth traders' close attention and in-depth study.
During this round of SOL's rise, it encountered strong suppression from the 240 resistance range and was difficult to continue to rise. The failure of ETF to pass has had many impacts on the current market.
It is necessary to pay attention to the closing price in the evening. If it can stabilize above 231, it can continue the upward trend and challenge 240 again. At this time, the upper resistance level should focus on several key positions such as 239 to 247 and 253. If the closing price cannot stand above 231, the lower support levels of 223 and 219 need to be closely watched.
Ether's trend at the four-hour level is in a correction state.
At the small level, we need to pay attention to the upper rebound pressure level of 3970.
If the one-hour closing line can break through this price, the one-hour line and the two-hour line will start a rebound trend. We can continue to pay attention to the upper rebound pressure levels of 4000, 4030 and 4090.
If the small level cannot stand firm above 3670, its rebound strength will be relatively weak, and the market will continue to pull back. At this time, we need to pay attention to the support level below 3855 and the area near 3805.
1. Holding and allocation strategy: BOME purchased in the early stage should be continuously held, and for subsequent planned investment targets, you can focus on the more popular MEME emerging currencies for allocation.
2. Key points for hot spot tracking: The subsequent market hot spots will focus on VC coins. At the same time, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the trading volume of the Huan platform. Since the trading volume of Laojiao has shown a significant shrinkage trend, and many altcoins have shown a sharp rise in the market, this means that market risks are gradually accumulating and increasing. .
3. Fund management and position control: The current currency market mainly relies on ETF funds for support. Therefore, it is recommended that investors control the position at about 60% and be sure to reserve at least 40% of funds for flexible allocation.
4. Risk prevention and profit-taking planning: It is difficult to accurately grasp the timing of escape from the top in the currency circle, because human greed is difficult to effectively restrain. Therefore, investors would rather moderately lower their profit expectations than blindly chase higher prices.
When the profit reaches a certain level, a strategy of stopping profits in batches should be adopted to ensure that the investment income can be pocketed smoothly. In view of the current downward trend in the short cycle, extra caution needs to be exercised during operations.
BTC now has an amplitude cross star of 10,000 dollars, which means that the market may fall into a period of volatility.
Therefore, you need to be cautious in short-term trading and do not blindly chase high prices to prevent being stuck at high prices.
The structure of Ether is stable. You can buy low and build in batches during dips. There are many opportunities in the long run.
When investing in altcoins, you should choose strong varieties with capital inflows, and do not chase short-term gains, otherwise it will easily lead to losses.
Weak currencies have weak trends and may continue to depreciate if held, so they should be avoided.
The overall market is divided.
In terms of operation strategy, it is advisable to choose strong coins and abandon weak coins.
When operating strong currencies, it is advisable to keep a light position and wait for a correction before entering the market.
In short, we need to be cautious in the short term, focus funds on strong varieties, avoid chasing high prices, and respond to market changes steadily.
SOL Market Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels and Trend Outlook
Currently, SOL shows a bullish pattern across all levels.
Today, pay close attention to the critical point of 238.6; if the price falls below this level, the 1 - 2 hour timeframe will initiate a correction process.
On the downside support levels, focus on 234.4, 229.3, and 223.2; if the price further drops below 234.4, the 4-hour timeframe will also enter a correction phase.
Conversely, as long as the level of 238.6 is not breached, SOL will maintain its bullish advantage across all levels and continue to rise.
The targets and resistance levels above are around 245, 248.8, and 252.3; these points will be important testing levels for SOL's upward movement and will have a key impact on the subsequent market trend. Investors need to closely monitor price dynamics to adjust trading strategies in a timely manner. $SOL
In the early phase of this year's bull market, there exists the Pepe cryptocurrency.
Apart from the well-known Pepe and Doge, there are several other cryptocurrencies worth paying attention to this year, such as Pnut Squirrel.
From its 4-hour trend analysis, it has begun to show signs of gradually strengthening, and data analysis also reveals that there has been some buying activity in spot trading.
However, due to the relatively high popularity of this cryptocurrency, adopting a harmonious trading approach may face many twists and turns and hardships during the holding period.
Therefore, it may be advisable to moderately allocate spot trading with the expectation of achieving at least double returns.
Bitcoin has demonstrated a remarkably significant pattern in its recent upward trajectory, namely that every time it crosses important integer price points, it is accompanied by corresponding adjustments and confirmation phases.
For example, when BTC broke through the critical point of 80,000, its price surged to 81,600, after which it began a pullback, dropping to around 78,888 to 78,666 to confirm the strength of the support. Only after this did it gather energy to bravely push towards the range of 85,000 to 90,000.
In this round of rising market, the price near 78,888 has undoubtedly become a crucial bottom-picking point.
This is by no means a baseless improvisation; as early as November, I boldly estimated that ETH could rise to 8000, at which time many may have had doubts, as ETH was only at the price level of 2300 dollars.
As of today, it has already approached 4000 dollars, yet I remain firmly optimistic about it reaching 8000 dollars. I wonder if you believe it?
Currently, some smaller cryptocurrencies in the ETH ecosystem are also experiencing rapid increases, for example, today Puffer surged directly by 50%, with its price sharply rising from 0.5 to above 0.8, which is undoubtedly a vivid example that "opportunity always favors those who are prepared."
Doge is no different; the DOGE recommended this morning was only 0.42, and today it has already jumped to 0.46, still possessing potential and room for upward movement.
Based on my analysis, the best performance period for Doge is very likely to be within two weeks before Musk's inauguration on January 20.
In this bull market, we must operate with patience, as opportunities and financial freedom are now just within reach! #BTC新高10W #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #doge⚡
The current trend of Bitcoin aligns with the analysis of previous days, still showing a bullish market sentiment on dips. Its support level is roughly in the range of 94000 to 94500, while the resistance level continues to hover around 98000.
Looking back at the trading conditions of the past few days, the long positions have seen one loss and one profit, with the loss being relatively small and the profit quite considerable.
The current market is still in a one-sided trend phase, with some smaller coins having shown exceptional upward momentum in the previous days, but today they have all experienced a pullback.
However, it should be clear that this is not a sign of an impending bear market; it is merely a price correction after the market makers have taken their profits, bringing the price back to a suitable support level. Therefore, the overall trading strategy should still favor buying on dips.
As for today, Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to enter a pullback range.
For conservative and steady investors, it is recommended to patiently wait for the price to pull back to the support level before taking long positions;
While aggressive investors who insist on making long trades must strictly control their position size and properly set stop-loss levels.
Please note that the above content is not professional investment advice and is for reference and discussion only.
What are the hottest sectors in the current market?
Since the conclusion of the U.S. election, the cryptocurrency market seems to have entered a mode of easy profits.
On one hand, Bitcoin is soaring, approaching the $100,000 mark;
On the other hand, market enthusiasm first focused on the MEME sector, and later, with strong performances from mainstream altcoins like XRP, people gradually realized that the long-awaited altcoin season seems to have arrived.
Analyzing from an overall data perspective, the market has indeed shown a collective upward trend in the past month.
PNUT, as the hottest MEME coin in November, ranks at the forefront with a 2400% increase. Judging by its on-chain data, its growth rate is the highest in the entire network, far exceeding the reported figures.
After compiling statistics, it was found that tokens related to gaming concepts had an average maximum increase of 273.4%, ranking first among the hottest altcoin sectors at the moment.
MEME coins follow closely, with an average maximum increase of 225%, while sectors like metaverse, Layer1, and social media closely trail behind.
The fan economy sector had the smallest increase, at only 85%.
Has the altcoin season really arrived?
Perhaps a relatively certain answer can now be given.
Although the market dynamics of BTC, SOL, and ETH have attracted everyone's attention in the past month, considering the actual data performance, BTC's maximum increase ranks 273rd among all tokens, ETH ranks 260th, and SOL is in 242nd place, which are relatively lower increases in the entire market.
In contrast, those once glorious altcoin star tokens, which no longer hold a dominant position, seem to be quietly returning in a different manner.
The market share of Bitcoin has decreased, but don’t underestimate it, it may be a good thing!
Based on past experience, every time this happens, it will drive the altcoins to take off.
First Bitcoin, then Bitcoin II, and then new coins, coins from various sectors, and old coins will all increase in price in this order. In the end, a deep correction will be used as a signal, and then the curtain of the bull market will be officially opened.
However, I think the probability of a deep correction in this round of bull market should not be too high, mainly for the following reasons:
First, after the Bitcoin ETF was approved, the atmosphere of the entire market has improved;
Second, many people who hold a large number of coins do not actually have BTC;
Third, the conversion of interests has not yet reached the level that will trigger a deep correction.
This time, the rebound of Alts/BTC is surprisingly led not by those popular coins, but by the old altcoins that I've been stuck with for a long time!
The altcoins that I started accumulating in January 2022 have successfully broken through a local new high today, and that high point at the beginning of the year just happens to be my average holding price over the past three years!
Currently, the market value exchange rate trend of altcoins is good, and it is estimated that there is still upward space, at least expected to rise above 0.75, which has become a long-term support level since the end of 2023;
However, after breaking below this level this year, it may turn into a long-term resistance level.
Therefore, although the current rising trend of altcoins is pleasing, I also have to consider whether to "take half off the position" based on the index performance around 0.75;
If the index can successfully break through 0.75, then continue to hold the altcoins until a high level in the big range before selling, and even reallocate to a few altcoins that I was optimistic about before but have not yet rebounded;
If it lingers around 0.75 without breaking through, then take moderate profits to reduce risk.
No matter what, I can't easily get off the ride!
It's just a difference in the amount of holdings;
Others are flaunting their profits from bottom-fishing altcoins, but for me, even if the price recovers, considering the opportunity cost over these three years, I am still at a loss of half.
According to historical data, December is often a month when the market experiences corrections.
Bitcoin is facing extremely heavy pressure at the 100,000 mark, while Ethereum at the 3,800 price level has also hit an important trend line resistance.
Recently, the market trends of various altcoins have been chaotic. Personally, I do not recommend investors to blindly follow the trend and chase after prices (FOMO).
For Bitcoin, one should consider exiting or reducing their position, patiently waiting for the correction phase in the middle of the bull market to look for opportunities to pick up those cheap tokens that have significantly dropped in price!!!
For those engaged in hedging trades, consider shorting those coins that have risen too much, such as XRP, ADA, Doge, etc. However, it is essential to manage your positions wisely and set appropriate take-profit and stop-loss levels.
1.29: In the next six months, the crypto market will be reshaped and wealth opportunities will surge
BTC.D is expected to reach the top in November and December, which means that the strong trend cycle of BTC that has lasted for nearly 3 years will come to an end, and the golden age of altcoins with huge wealth effects is about to begin.
Looking back at the last two rounds of cryptocurrency cycles, both showed that in the eighth month after the halving, altcoins collectively broke through the historical high and started a rapid upward trend. According to the current cycle, this key node will appear in January 25.
Looking forward to the next six months, BTC may increase by up to 1 times, and its price is expected to reach 200,000;
ETH may usher in a 2-4 times increase, with a price range of 9,000-15,000;
And the overall altcoins will generally have a 5-10 times increase.
At this moment, let us make all-round preparations to welcome the coming cryptocurrency bubble era and seize this half-year wealth opportunity period that is enough to rewrite the trajectory of life.
ETH and SOL: Key points determine the direction, and the multi-core strategy is analyzed in detail
Ethereum ETH$ETH The current upward trend of Ethereum seems weak, and its four-hour line has broken through the support level of 3600. If the market wants to regain its upward trend, it must wait for the four-hour line to successfully break through 3600 before considering it. The upper pressure levels are 3646 and 3688 respectively. If the four-hour line fails to break through 3600 at the close, then a four-hour level correction will be opened, and the lower support levels are 3530, 3470 and 3410 respectively.
$SOL
SOL's four-hour line has successfully closed above the 238 support level, thus opening a four-hour level upward trend. At this time, we need to pay close attention to the support level of 238 below. As long as the four-hour line does not close below 238, it will continue to attack the 245-day line pressure level. If the four-hour line closes below 238, then this wave of four-hour level rise will come to an abrupt end. Investors holding long orders must pay attention to risks. The support levels below are 233 and 227 respectively.
Bitcoin Trend Deep Insights: Market Pattern Under Mixed Long and Short Positions
Just yesterday, we mentioned there were signs of market stabilization, and indeed, we smoothly welcomed a rebound during the day. This round of rebound is expected to reach a height of 94,500, and the 1-hour bearish order block has also been fulfilled.
Firstly, the 1-hour bearish order block drawn yesterday was successfully pierced by market prices, indicating that the strength of this rebound far exceeds previous estimates.
However, considering the current situation, it is not believed that prices will break through directly. The market is likely to need to build a range for consolidation and accumulation.
Secondly, the 4-hour bearish order block range has been adjusted to 97,000 - 99,000. Within this area, we can still look for bearish patterns to timely initiate short positions, thus seizing trading opportunities brought about by market fluctuations. In the long and short game of the Bitcoin market, we can respond flexibly to optimize and layout investment strategies.
The dawn of altcoin market is still here, holding onto chips waiting for the light
Do not panic, the flames of the altcoin market have not yet been extinguished, and will continue to burn!
The market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin relative to altcoins has been rising steadily, reaching a new high of 61% in recent years, while also hitting the strong resistance barrier at the weekly level from previous years, thus initiating the expected pullback trend.
With the continuous expansion and growth of the altcoin market, Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio is gradually being diluted due to cyclical influences. In my opinion, this is undoubtedly an inevitable trend in the development of the market.
In my view, the market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin in this round of market has already reached the top area.
From a macro perspective, the possibility of a rate cut in December is increasing day by day, which will construct a greenhouse for funds in the crypto circle, and the effect of capital inflow will become increasingly significant.
Therefore, I firmly believe that December is the key month for altcoins to truly usher in a major explosion.
By then, vibrant and potential sectors such as MEME, RWA, and blockchain games will fully enter a brand new phase of explosive growth.
It has been a long time since I displayed such charts, but the core points have always remained unchanged. At this critical stage, firmly holding onto the chips in hand is the true secret to unlocking the door to wealth!