Major macroeconomic data events from July 29 to August 2: interest rate meeting, major and minor non-farm payrolls, and a week of intensive earnings reports for technology stocks are coming!
Recommended reading: ★★★★★
In the new week, we will usher in the critical moment from July to August.
This week, the Federal Reserve’s July interest rate meeting, major and minor non-farm payrolls data, and intensive financial reports from U.S. tech giants are about to be released. Please see the timeline!
Bold assumptions, careful analysis, welcome to Uncle Cat’s encrypted “channel”
July 29
Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for July,
Data weight: ★★
Data content: previous value -15.1 expected -15.5
Data time: 22:30 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
The Dallas Fed is one of the twelve regional banks of the Federal Reserve System of the United States. Its data collects three-week business data from Texas, New Mexico and Louisiana. Texas and New Mexico are important economically dependent regions in the United States. By observing the changes in this data, we can judge the current situation of the real economy in the United States. Currently, this data is negative, proving that this region has been in a long-term negative growth stage.
July 30
US JOLTs job vacancies in June (10,000 people)
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: previous value 814, expected 805.5
Data time: 22:00
Data impact:
The data is provided by the U.S. Department of Labor. This data has a certain lag, but it reflects the situation on the demand side of the job market and can be used to make a preliminary judgment on the demand-side data for July.
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Microsoft $MSFT announces second quarter earnings report,
Microsoft, one of the seven tech giants in the U.S. and the company that once ranked first in the world by market value, will announce its second-quarter financial report after the U.S. stock market closes. It will be very important whether the financial report of this old "big brother" can meet market expectations. Last week, as the bubble of technology stocks gradually melted, U.S. stocks continued to fall. Will Microsoft's financial report save market sentiment or deal another blow to the U.S. technology stocks?
July 31
U.S. ADP employment in July (10,000 people)
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: previous value 15 expected 14.9
Data time: 20:15 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
The data of "Small Non-Farm" is provided by ADP in the United States. The data collected mainly includes the employment data of private enterprises and sectors in the United States. It makes a preliminary judgment on the situation of the US labor market in July. Its weight is smaller than that of Large Non-Farm.
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U.S. second quarter labor cost index quarterly rate/labor employment wage quarterly rate
Data weight: ★★
Data time: 20:30
Data impact:
The labor salary and labor cost data for the second quarter of the U.S. labor market provided by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the stubborn growth of wages has always been a headache for the Federal Reserve. Rapid wage growth will lead to inflationary pressure, while slower wage growth will be more conducive to a healthy economy.
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U.S. June existing home sales index monthly rate
Data weight: ★★
Data content: Previous value -2.1% Expected 1.3%
Data time: 22:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
The data intuitively shows the activity of U.S. real estate and determines the impact of real estate on the U.S. economy. At the same time, new home sales will have a certain impact on the rental market, thereby affecting the supply and demand relationship of rental prices.
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The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision / Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference
Data weight: ★★★★★
Data content: None
Data time: 02:00 (2:00 am, August 1, 2024, Beijing time) Press conference 02:30
Data impact:
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in July is particularly important compared to the meetings in previous months. Since the probability of a rate cut in September is very high, if the Federal Reserve intends to cut interest rates in September, it may release a signal of a September rate cut at this interest rate meeting, which will determine whether the market will formally enter into trading expectations of a rate cut.
The key node of this event was Powell’s press conference at 02:30 after the meeting.
↓
Meta $META (formerly Facebook) announced its second quarter financial results.
Data time: 04:00 after the US stock market closed
Data impact:
Meta, one of the seven technology giants, released its second-quarter financial report, which will play an important role in guiding the current sentiment of the US technology sector. It is also an important test for the AI narrative at present.
August 1:
Number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States in July (10,000 people)
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: Previous value 4.8786
Data time: 19:30 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
The data is provided by a consulting company and can be read as effective forward-looking data before the big non-agricultural data. By understanding the changes in the number of layoffs in enterprises, we can obtain information about the operating conditions and job vacancies of private enterprises, thereby making a forward-looking judgment on the big non-agricultural data in July.
↓
US July ISM Manufacturing PMI
Data weight: ★★★
Data content: Previous value 48.5 Expected 48.8
Data time: 22:00 (UTC+8)
Data content:
The data is provided by the U.S. Institute for Supply Management on the supply side, which can directly show the activity of the U.S. manufacturing industry. The data has a high impact on the U.S. economy and the trend of the U.S. dollar.
↓
Apple $AAPL, Amazon $AMZN, MicroStrategy $MSTR, and Coinbase $COIN announced their second quarter financial reports for this year.
As one of the technology giants, the financial reports of Apple and Amazon also have a profound impact on the current technology sector of the US stock market. Since they are released after Microsoft and Meta, they can play a connecting role.
The release of the financial reports of MSTR and Coin will bring a certain boost to the crypto sector. One of the two companies is betting on#BTCwith the largest asset weight, and the other is currently the largest crypto trading volume in the United States. The financial reports of these two companies will affect the sentiment of American traders towards crypto market transactions.
August 2
U.S. unemployment rate in July/U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in July (10,000 people)
Data impact: ★★★★★
Data content: Unemployment rate: previous value 4.1% expected 4.1%
Employment: Previous value: 20.6; Expected: 17.8
Data time: 20:30 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
As important reference data for the U.S. labor market, the release of the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls and various related subsequent data will intuitively show the U.S. employment situation in July, and will have a high impact on the probability of a rate cut in September.
The current data shows that the US economy is stable, inflation is maintaining a slow downward trend, and the job market has become the top priority. Poor employment data will indeed promote the possibility of a quick rate cut, but the release of the data after the July interest rate meeting may lead to market trading expectations of a US recession. On the contrary, good data is also one of the incentives for a rate cut. Powell's goal is to cut interest rates while maintaining stable employment.
↓
U.S. factory orders monthly rate in June
Data weight: ★★
Data content: previous value -0.5% expected -3.1%
Data time: 22:00 (UTC+8)
Data impact:
The data is provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce. It directly shows the situation of U.S. factory orders in June and reflects the rise and fall of the U.S. manufacturing industry. It will also have a certain impact on the assessment of the U.S. economy.
Summarize:
The new week will be a week of joint focus for cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks, and it will also be an important week for cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks in the near future.
For the US stock market, the release of the financial reports of the technology giants this week, combined with the stimulus of economic data, can the US stock market break out of the decline of technology stocks and boost the US stock market again? Or will the technology stocks continue to digest the bubble, and funds will rotate to small and medium-cap stocks to trade the expectation of interest rate cuts? The answer will be given this week. After this week, only the financial report of the newcomer Nvidia has not yet been released.
For cryptocurrencies, the MSTR COIN financial report will be released this week. The trading sentiment of the U.S. stock market, along with the impact of the interest rate meeting and economic data, will determine whether BTC can break through the previous daily high of 72,000. This position has been emphasized. Breaking through or not will determine the continuation of the subsequent bullish sentiment and the overall trading sentiment of the market.
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