Interpretation of macro data on July 26: Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July!
After the release of today's core PCE data, we can clearly see that the obstacle to inflation in June came from the decline in consumer willingness and the stubbornness of the core PCE price index.
As mentioned above, if the reduction in inflation is caused by a decrease in residents' income or a weakening of their spending power, this is actually not what the Fed wants to see. The best data is stable economic growth, reduced inflation, active residents' consumption, and lower prices. This is the most ideal state and what the Fed wants to see the most.
So we can judge the mood and willingness to consume through the Consumer Confidence Index provided by the University of Michigan.
Let’s look at the data first:
The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 66, the previous value was 66, the expected value was 66, and the announced value was 66.4
The figure is the lowest since November 2023.
Data interpretation:
This data is higher than expected this period, and it is also the lowest since November last year, which means that consumer confidence has declined and the willingness to consume has decreased. Of course, this decrease in consumption willingness can be seen from today's core PCE data group, which may be caused by a decrease in income.
Consumer confidence continued to decline in July, possibly due to concerns about future income and the economy, which also affected consumption desire.
Data impact:
The data is bearish for the US economy and the US dollar, but the impact is not too great. The consumer confidence index can only be used as forward-looking data. The key still lies in the core PCE data group in July.
If the FOMC meeting next Thursday does not reveal the possibility of a clear rate cut in September, then the July data will be particularly important, especially the core PCE data. If the data remains stubborn again, or the PCE declines slightly, but the main reason for the decline is due to lower residents' income and lower willingness to consume, then this will still be a concern for the Fed.
At the same time, I would like to remind you that although inflation data is not currently the mainstream data that drives interest rate cuts, the core PCE-related data combined with the labor market situation is still data that has a relatively heavy impact on interest rate cuts.
How to effectively reduce wage increases without affecting consumer confidence may be a difficult problem! Of course, this problem belongs to the Federal Reserve!
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