Macquarie: Fed espera cortar taxas de juros pela primeira vez em setembro

盲僧看趋势 · 2024-07-12T05:22:55.000Z

O funcionário do Fed, Daly, disse que dadas as atuais condições de inflação e do mercado de trabalho, pode ser mais apropriado cortar as taxas de juros uma ou duas vezes este ano. Ao mesmo tempo, o Macquarie Bank prevê que a Reserva Federal implementará o seu primeiro corte nas taxas de juro em Setembro, com um corte acumulado nas taxas de 50 pontos base, superior à previsão anterior de 25 pontos base. Esta informação indica que a avaliação da situação económica pela Fed está a mudar e poderá ajustar a sua política monetária. Do ponto de vista da inflação, Daly acredita que a situação actual da inflação melhorou, mas o progresso futuro ainda está cheio de incerteza. Os dados do IPC de junho recentemente divulgados mostraram um aumento anual de 3%, inferior aos 3,1% esperados, e uma diminuição mensal de 0,1%. Os dados sugerem que as pressões inflacionistas diminuíram, dando à Reserva Federal espaço para reduzir as taxas de juro. No entanto, Daly também sublinhou que são necessárias mais informações no futuro para confirmar a continuação da tendência descendente da inflação. O desempenho do mercado de trabalho é outro fator fundamental. Daly observou que o mercado de trabalho, embora desacelere, permanece sólido. As mudanças no mercado de trabalho têm um impacto importante na tomada de decisões do Fed. Se o crescimento do emprego continuar a abrandar, a Fed considerará cortar as taxas de juro para apoiar o crescimento económico e a estabilidade do mercado de trabalho. O Macquarie Bank adiantou a data para o primeiro corte das taxas de juro da Reserva Federal, de Dezembro para Setembro, e espera um total de 50 pontos base de cortes nas taxas de juro ao longo do ano. O ajustamento reflecte preocupações do mercado quanto ao risco de um abrandamento económico. A redução anterior e mais substancial das taxas de juro destinava-se a fazer face à potencial pressão descendente sobre a economia e evitar que a economia caísse numa recessão mais grave.

Fed official Daly said that given the current inflation and labor market situation, one to two rate cuts this year may be more appropriate. At the same time, Macquarie Bank predicts that the Fed will implement its first rate cut in September, with a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points, higher than the previous forecast of 25 basis points. This information shows that the Fed's assessment of the economic situation is changing and it may adjust its monetary policy.
From the perspective of inflation, Daly believes that the current inflation situation has eased, but future progress is still full of uncertainty. The recently released June CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%. These data show that inflationary pressure has eased, providing the Federal Reserve with room to cut interest rates. However, Daly also emphasized that more information is needed in the future to confirm the continued downward trend of inflation. The performance of the labor market is another key factor. Daly pointed out that although the labor market has slowed down, it is still solid. Changes in the job market have an important impact on the Fed's decision-making. If employment growth continues to slow, the Fed will consider lowering interest rates to support economic growth and the stability of the job market. Macquarie Bank has brought forward the time for the Fed's first interest rate cut from December to September, and expects a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points throughout the year. This adjustment reflects the market's concerns about the risk of economic slowdown. The earlier and more substantial interest rate cuts are to respond to potential downward economic pressures and prevent the economy from falling into a more severe recession.
According to market news, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) may be released and return soon. As the founder and former CEO of Binance, CZ has a pivotal position in the cryptocurrency industry. His return will have an important impact on Binance and the entire market. As one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance's business and operational strategies rely heavily on CZ's leadership and decision-making. His return is expected to stabilize Binance's internal management and develop a clearer strategy for future development. CZ's release will have a positive impact on market sentiment. Over the past period of time, the cryptocurrency market has been challenged in many aspects, including regulatory pressure and market volatility. CZ's return is expected to boost player confidence and drive market sentiment back to a good level. In addition, as a leading figure in the industry, CZ's opinions and judgments have important guiding significance in the market, and his return will provide more confidence and direction to the market.
The German government currently holds 9,094 Bitcoins, worth approximately $522.29 million. In the past 24 hours, the German government wallet transferred out 10,627 BTC ($615.3 million) and received 4,169 BTC ($239.6 million), which means that 6,458 BTC ($375.7 million) may have been sold. From the perspective of holdings, the German government still holds a large amount of BTC. Despite the recent sell-off, the holdings are still considerable, showing the government's strategic reserve attitude towards BTC. This action is due to the need for market volatility management and asset allocation optimization. From the perspective of market impact, the large-scale transfer and sale of BTC will undoubtedly have a certain impact on the market price. In the short term, the price of Bitcoin will fluctuate due to the selling pressure. However, it is worth noting that the German government's sales did not lead to drastic turbulence in the Bitcoin market, indicating that the market has a certain ability to digest this news.
BlackRock may apply for an exchange-traded ETF for Solana (SOL) in July. As one of the world's largest asset management companies, BlackRock's every move can bring major market fluctuations. From the perspective of market potential, SOL has performed outstandingly in recent years. As of July 2024, its market value reached US$13 billion, ranking among the top ten cryptocurrencies. BlackRock chose to intervene at this time, obviously seeing the growth potential and technological advantages of SOL. Solana is known for its efficient transaction speed and low transaction costs, and is considered a strong competitor to Ethereum. BlackRock's move is not only a recognition of SOL, but also a confidence in the entire blockchain technology and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. The launch of the ETF will bring more institutional players to SOL. ETF products in the traditional financial market have attracted a lot of funds due to their liquidity and transparency. The launch of the SOL ETF may allow more conservative players to enter the crypto market, thereby driving the further rise of SOL prices. It is worth noting that the regulatory environment remains severe. Although the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has gradually opened up its attitude towards cryptocurrencies, the approval of ETFs remains strict. Whether BlackRock's application will be successfully approved remains to be seen.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 1,367 coins yesterday, worth $79.8 million.
BTC: The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 1,367 coins yesterday, which is too low. The long upper shadow line indicates that the selling pressure from above is huge. MACD is about to cross and turn downward, and the indicator shows that the short-selling force is still strong. The DIF line and DEA line are running below the zero axis, and may continue to fluctuate downward in the short term. Rebound height reference: around 61,200; around 63,600;
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
TON: It closed with a spinning hammer yesterday and is now at the 5-day moving average. The MACD at the daily level is above the zero axis and may fluctuate upward in the short term.
The panic index is currently 25 (extreme fear) #美国6月CPI大幅降温 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC下跌分析 

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