BTC: The spot Bitcoin ETF has achieved net inflows yesterday, and closed a small positive line yesterday. It is still in shock, and the daily MACD is close to the zero axis, which may be brewing a big market. It is expected that there will be greater online and lower volatility in the next two weeks, and it is difficult to judge the trend in the next few days. There is still the possibility of setting a new high in the short term, and there is also the possibility of inserting the pin near the previous low. In the long term, just hold on to the currency. Strong pressure: near 73,000; near 77,000;

ETH: linked to the trend of bits. Strong pressure: near 3697; near 3850;

Altcoins: Most altcoin movements are usually correlated with each other. Nonetheless, SUI's recent performance has been strong and particularly noteworthy. It is reported that SUI’s ecological conference will be held in France on April 10. This good news has promoted SUI’s recent gains, and the market has responded well. At present, the trend form of SUI is very ideal. Meanwhile, most other altcoins are essentially in a state of consolidation, possibly in preparation for the upcoming altcoin season. Considering whether Bitcoin will adjust in the near future, if there is an adjustment, it will provide high-quality altcoins with an opportunity to enter the market again.

Today’s hot sectors: AI artificial intelligence; DeFi;

The fear index is currently at 79 (extreme greed)

BTC: Yesterday, it closed a spindle line with a long upper shadow line. The upper and lower shadow lines represent that the long and short competition was more intense last night. The upper shadow line is longer than the lower shadow line, indicating that the short sellers currently have the upper hand. However, the long-short ratio remains low. Combined with the huge accumulation of funds on the hourly line at 22:00 last night, it means that the acceptance below is very strong, which is also enough to illustrate the indestructible determination of the bulls. At this stage, there is a high probability that it is a rising relay form, and it may take 7-14 days to adjust. In the adjustment stage, as long as the price drops, it will give new people the opportunity to get on the bus, and they can just hold the currency in the long term. Strong pressure: near 73,000; near 77,000;

ETH: Yesterday, it closed a small negative line with a long upper shadow line. There is indeed some selling pressure above the surface. A giant whale sold 17,768 ETH, and the competition in the L2 public chain is also fierce. The result of ETF approval in May is unknown, and it rained all night long. The short-term weak linkage is the trend of bits. I firmly believe that the market outlook will definitely pick up, and just hold on to the currency in the long term. Strong pressure: near 3697; near 3850;

Altcoins: These days, it has been emphasized that some altcoins can be deployed at dips. Today, the altcoins have basically linked up with Bitcoin and seen a general rise in the market. The main trend of Shanzhai's Shenglang market is far from coming. At this stage, it is best to find a good track and hold the currency without moving. You can also pay attention to Restake and Bitcoin L2 track tokens.

Today’s hot sectors: An IEO; Metaverse;

The fear index is currently at 80 (extreme greed)

BTC: It closed a cross line yesterday and is now above all moving averages at the daily level. The long-short ratio is at a low level, multiple moving averages at the daily level diverge upwards, MACD golden cross is about to form, and the callback is still shrinking. Based on the above, the short-term outlook is volatile. Strong pressure: near 73,000; near 77,000;

ETH: Linked bits fluctuate upward. Strong pressure: near 3697; near 3850;

Altcoins: The field of altcoins has shown obvious differentiation in recent days. The BTC ecosystem and DEPIN track tokens have generally risen, while other altcoins have basically shown a weak trend. As BTC is about to start a new round of rise, the market may enter the altcoin season. Therefore, at this stage, it is still a good opportunity to find hidden coins, and you need to wait patiently.

Today’s hot sectors: BTC ecology; DEPIN;

The fear index is currently at 83 (extreme greed)

BTC: The daily level closed a Zhongyang line. The short-term rise is high-volume, and the correction is shrinking. The long-short ratio is low, and the trend currently looks relatively healthy. The daily level is now above all moving averages, MACD golden cross may be formed, and new highs may be reached at any time in the next few days. This Friday is the largest BTC options delivery in history, with a notional value of $9.45 billion. Past historical experience is that the market is relatively calm during the days of actual delivery, and tends to move more violently after delivery. Strong pressure: near 73,000; near 77,000;

ETH: linked to the trend of bits. Strong pressure: near 3697; near 3850;

Altcoin: The altcoin market has not shown a large-scale rise. Most currencies are still driven by the trend of Bitcoin, showing signs that the altcoin market is not yet coming. The market hot spots are unclear, and players generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude. At this stage, altcoins can still make bargain hunting arrangements.

Today’s hot sectors: Layer2; RWA;

The fear index is currently 81 (extreme greed) #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥

A group member asked: There seems to be no movement in Ether. Is it safe to hoard Ether if I want to hoard coins? Will it become like a copycat and decline over time? Is this likely? Another thing is, if it fails to pass the ETF, will it be devastated?

Answer: Ethereum has increased more than three times from this low point to the current stage, and the increase is not bad. Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency in the cryptosphere, second only to BTC. It is true that there is a possibility of decline over time, but the probability is low. If it does not pass the ETF, it is unlikely that it will fail. The possibility of a range of US$10,000-18,000 in the late bull market is still very high.

Group friends asked: Hello teacher, ETH has always been weak! Is it related to the decrease in ETF pass rate? If the ETF is rejected in May, will it be weaker?

Answer: The continued weakness of Ethereum is indeed related to the decrease in the ETF pass rate. If the Ethereum ETF fails to pass in May, it will indeed be weaker. Specifically, you can pay attention to: the negative premium data of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust Fund. If the negative premium data is still growing, it means that the probability of passing in May is greatly reduced. #ETH（二饼）

Group friend asked: Hello teacher, do you only use Kushen for hard wallets? How is it better than imkey?

Answer: Yes, I only use Kushen. I’m just used to it and don’t want to change. imkey is also very easy to use, it’s just a personal habit.

Group friend asked: Hello teacher! May I ask how much the miners’ income will decrease after the Bitcoin halving? Will it be reduced by 50%?

Answer: It may be reduced by 30%-40%. My personal prediction is to reduce by 35%, because the computing power will decrease and the proportion of handling fees will increase.

The group asked: Hello, teacher, how many times the psychological target is expected to be earned in this round to get off the train?

Answer: There is a saying in the trading market. You must remember that how much you make depends on the market, and how much you lose depends on yourself. We only need to calculate the maximum loss we can bear, and how much we earn should be calculated based on the market situation. If you bought Bitcoin 8 years ago, there is no need to stipulate how much you earn to get off the bus, because as long as you get off the bus, it will be difficult to get off the bus. After finding such a good target as Bitcoin, I will keep my personal funds in the encryption circle for a long time until I find a better target, and I will earn as much as the market allows me to earn.

According to TokenUnlocks data, this week OP, PRIME, and YGG will usher in a one-time large-scale unlocking of tokens, among which:

Acala (ACA) will unlock 4.66 million tokens at 8:00 on March 25, worth approximately $899,000, accounting for 0.48% of the circulating supply;
Yield Guild Games (YGG) will unlock 16.69 million tokens at 22:00 on March 27, worth approximately US$16.89 million, accounting for 5.39% of the circulating supply;
SingularityNET (AGIX) will unlock 8.84 million tokens at 8:00 on March 28, worth approximately $9.26 million, accounting for 0.69% of the circulating supply;
Optimism (OP) will unlock 24.16 million tokens at 12:00 on March 29, worth approximately US$84.32 million, accounting for 2.4% of the circulating supply;
EchelonPrime (PRIME) will unlock 1.66 million tokens at 8:00 on March 31, worth approximately $37.53 million, accounting for 4.65% of the circulating supply;
Sui (SUI) will unlock 4 million tokens at 8:00 on March 31st, worth approximately $6.68 million, accounting for 0.32% of the circulating supply.

These unlocking events will have an impact on the circulating supply of the corresponding tokens and deserve close attention. For investors, they need to pay attention to whether these unlockings will cause market fluctuations and the impact on the long-term development of the project. The large number of tokens unlocked may increase supply pressure, causing prices to fall. Therefore, I recommend that investors remain vigilant before and after unlocking and make rational investment decisions based on market conditions.

A new report from Bloomberg shows that a large number of Bitcoin miners are moving their mining equipment from the United States to Africa and South America. According to reports, around 600,000 S19 mining rigs are undergoing this transfer ahead of the Bitcoin halving. Behind this action is the significant drop in electricity prices in these areas, which has attracted the attention of miners. Interestingly, the unit price of these mining rigs was once as high as $11,500, but it is said that it may drop to $350 after the halving.

This trend prompted me to think deeply about the Bitcoin mining landscape. It shows that miners are extremely concerned about mining costs and are willing to travel far away for cheaper energy costs. This also reflects the fierce competition and globalization trend in the Bitcoin mining market. For investors, this means paying close attention to global energy markets and geopolitical developments, as these factors will directly impact Bitcoin’s mining costs and market supply.

According to reports, U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) said that cryptocurrencies are the best tool to fight inflation. He even announced last year his intention to accept BTC donations ahead of the 2024 US presidential primary.

I deeply agree with this statement. Inflation has become a serious challenge in today's world as central banks around the world continue to increase the money supply. In this case, cryptocurrencies have become a safe haven against inflation due to their fixed supply and decentralized nature. Kennedy’s comments not only raised awareness of the cryptocurrency market, but also expressed his confidence in the emerging technology.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF may surpass Grayscale GBTC

The report pointed out that based on the current inflow rate, BlackRock IBIT’s Bitcoin holdings are expected to exceed Grayscale GBTC in the next three weeks. As of March 22, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF held 238,500 Bitcoins on its books, while Grayscale GBTC held approximately 350,252 BTC. Assuming the rate of inflows and outflows remains stable, BlackRock’s total Bitcoin holdings could exceed Grayscale’s by April 11. If BlackRock’s inflows return to the previous week’s average daily inflows, which was around 7,200 BTC, the shift could occur within 10 days.

This news has attracted widespread attention in the market, because BlackRock is one of the world's largest asset management companies, and its Bitcoin holdings exceeding Grayscale GBTC will further highlight institutional interest and recognition of cryptocurrencies. This also means that the Bitcoin market is experiencing increasing liquidity and institutional participation, which may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

BTC: The weekly level has closed a standard hanging man. If the weekly level closes below 67200 this week, then the weekly level downward callback trend will be established. However, often we cannot just look at the technical aspects, but must also combine the market aspects to study and judge the current trend. Spot Bitcoin ETF data will continue to dominate market trends. If it falls first and then rises this week, it is a healthier trend; if it chooses to directly fluctuate upward, it may reach a new high in the next three weeks or form a periodic top. Strong pressure: around 68800;

ETH: linked to the trend of bits. Strong pressure: near 3587; near 3697;

Altcoin: For players who haven’t gotten on board yet, it is still a good opportunity to get on board. You can now pay attention to the RWA and AI artificial intelligence tracks. Although the altcoin bull market has not yet arrived, and we still need to wait patiently, the current market value of Bitcoin is already quite high. It is believed that the market value share will drop sharply in the near future, and the altcoin season may begin.

Today’s hot sectors: a16z investment; RWA;

The fear index is currently 75 (Greed) #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥

BTC: Yesterday, it closed a small negative line. It is currently observed to be a shrinking callback, which is not a big problem. If you choose a strong adjustment in the short term: a small shock to repair the current market, and finally, choose a shock upward; if you choose a weak adjustment in the short term: a second bottom or the pin does not break the previous low; finally, choose a shock upward; strong pressure: around 68800;

ETH: Yesterday, it closed a spindle line. The rise was a sign of heavy volume, while the pullback was a sign of shrinkage. The short-term trend may continue to be stronger than the market. Perform short-term shocks or double dips to repair, and finally resume the upward trend. Strong pressure: near 3587; near 3697;

Altcoins: The RWA track token rose extremely fiercely yesterday. Many copycats have rebounded from oversold conditions. Even if there is a slight dip in the short term, the scope of adjustment will be limited. In the short term, you can gradually start to lay out your favorite tracks.

Today’s hot sectors: Layer2; RWA;

The fear index is currently at 75 (greed) #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥