Putin signed a law legalizing cryptocurrency mining in Russia, an important policy change in the global cryptocurrency regulatory landscape. First, the legalization of cryptocurrency mining in Russia may significantly increase the global Bitcoin hash rate, thereby having an impact on the security and distribution of the Bitcoin network. Russia is sparsely populated and has abundant energy resources, which provides favorable conditions for large-scale mining. However, the legalization of mining may also lead to Russia becoming one of the major centers for Bitcoin mining, which may trigger regulatory attention and policy changes globally. Second, although cryptocurrency mining has gained legal status in Russia, how to regulate and tax it remains a key issue. Given the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the uncertainty of the global regulatory environment, the challenges Russia faces during implementation cannot be underestimated. If regulatory policies are imperfect, it may trigger financial risks such as Q-laundering and capital outflows, and even pose a threat to Russia's financial stability. Finally, the law signed by Putin could also have knock-on effects on other countries’ cryptocurrency policies. Especially in the context of the current tightening of global cryptocurrency regulations, Russia's move may prompt other countries to reassess their cryptocurrency policies, thereby affecting the dynamics of the global cryptocurrency market.

The Bank of Japan is likely to avoid another rate hike in the near term, according to new analysis from Morgan Asset Management, with deep macroeconomic considerations behind this decision. The views of Seamus Mac Gorain, global head of rates, highlight the complexity of the Bank of Japan's future policy direction, especially against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty. First, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is strongly influenced by the external environment, especially the performance of the US economy. Mac Gorain mentioned that if the US economy enters a recession, the Bank of Japan will face greater challenges, which will hinder its possibility of further tightening monetary policy. Given the broad impact of the US economy on global markets, the Bank of Japan must carefully assess the Fed's moves and its potential impact on the global economy before taking any policy actions. Secondly, although Mac Gorain believes that the Bank of Japan may begin a series of rate hikes around 2025, this still requires a relatively stable global economic background. At present, the global economy is highly uncertain, especially in terms of inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks and supply chain issues. Therefore, the Bank of Japan must make cautious decisions on the premise of ensuring market stability and avoiding recession. Finally, Mac Gorain's analysis also reveals the delicate position of the Bank of Japan in the global economic environment. Although Japan's domestic economic conditions have improved, the uncertainty of the global economic outlook makes it difficult for the Bank of Japan to adjust its policies easily. Only when the global economic environment turns more benign, the Bank of Japan may adopt a more active monetary policy.

The latest statement by Kansas Fed President Schmid shows that although the market expects a rate cut in September with a probability of more than 50%, the Fed's internal attitude towards rate cuts remains cautious. Schmid pointed out that although inflation has fallen and the labor market is healthy, it is still some distance away from the 2% inflation target. This means that the future policy path will depend more on data rather than market expectations. First, although inflation has a downward trend, it is still above the target level, indicating that inflationary pressure has not been completely eliminated. Schmid's statement emphasized that the Fed may only consider cutting interest rates after inflation has stabilized and returned to the 2% target. This is in contrast to market expectations. CME data shows that the market's probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has reached 56.55%. However, the Fed's cautious attitude means that the market's optimistic expectations may be too advanced. Secondly, although the non-farm payrolls data in July was weak, Schmid believes that other economic indicators still show the resilience of the labor market. This means that the Fed may not immediately take interest rate cuts because of one or two data fluctuations. This cautious attitude shows that the Fed wants to maintain policy flexibility before determining the trend of economic growth and inflation. Finally, Schmid's mention of "the policy path will be determined by data and economic momentum" further indicates that the Fed will rely more on data in future interest rate decisions. This is consistent with the policy tone of the past few months, that is, in an environment of high uncertainty, the Fed is more inclined to take a wait-and-see attitude and avoid premature or excessive policy adjustments.

The United States is brewing a proposal for a Bitcoin tax-free zone. On the surface, it is a bold move to support the development of the digital economy. However, a closer analysis shows that the complexity behind it cannot be ignored. This policy may promote the activity of Bitcoin transactions in the short term, but in the long run, its effect still needs to be carefully evaluated. First, the establishment of a Bitcoin tax-free zone (DEZ) will help attract global capital to the United States and promote the growth of Bitcoin trading volume. However, the tax-free policy may also lead to excessive speculation in the Bitcoin market and increase market volatility. Although USABTC believes that this move will enhance the "resilience and innovation" of the US economy, we have to consider that high-frequency trading in the tax-free zone may weaken the stability of Bitcoin and even have a chain reaction on the global cryptocurrency market. Secondly, although there is no capital gains tax on transactions in the tax-free zone, taxes are still required upon redemption, which means that players may face uncertain tax risks when realizing profits. If there is a lack of clear regulations on tax rates and redemption rules, it may cause players to hesitate to hold Bitcoin for a long time, which in turn affects the healthy development of the market. Finally, although the United States attempts to maintain its leading position in the digital economy through this proposal, the decentralized nature and cross-border liquidity of Bitcoin make the coordination and competition of policies among countries an inevitable challenge. How to balance the core position of the US dollar and the global influence of Bitcoin in the future remains an urgent issue to be resolved.

The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 1,239 coins yesterday, worth $2.9 million.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 3,657 coins yesterday, worth $202 million.

BTC: The daily level closed with a big positive line, and is now below the 200-day moving average. MACD shows that it is about to form a golden cross, and the RSI and KDJ indicators are also actively cooperating. In summary: Before the daily level is about to form a golden cross, it will often choose to fluctuate upward for a few days, and finally change again to bottom out. Pressure reference: around 62700; around 64300;

ETH: The daily level closed with a big positive line, and is now above the 5-day moving average. In the short term, it is expected to rebound from oversold and fluctuate upward. Pressure reference: around 2868; around 3102;

The panic index is currently 48 (neutral) #加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析