The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that the vast majority of officials believed that U.S. economic growth is gradually cooling and that the current policy stance is restrictive. The Fed is waiting for more information to gain confidence to cut interest rates. This minute provides important insights into the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy. From the perspective of economic growth, Fed officials believe that growth is gradually cooling, which is consistent with recent employment data and other economic indicators. This shows that the Fed's assessment of the current economic situation is cautious and prudent. Most participants believe that the current policy stance is restrictive, which means that the current high interest rate environment is suppressing economic activity. The Fed is waiting for more information to decide whether to cut interest rates, which shows that there is still uncertainty in their judgment of the economic outlook, especially in terms of inflation and the job market.
In addition, some participants said that policies should be ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness, reflecting the Fed's high attention to potential economic risks. Several officials pointed out that if demand weakens, the unemployment rate will rise, further emphasizing the complexity of the Fed's balancing inflation and employment goals. Several participants said that if inflation persists at a high level or rises further, it may be necessary to raise interest rates. Although the minutes showed "further modest progress" toward the 2% inflation target, inflationary pressures remain a focus of the Fed.
The number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States last week was 238,000, slightly higher than the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 233,000. This data reflects the subtle changes in the US job market. Although the data is slightly higher than expected, the overall level is still within a relatively healthy range.
From an economic perspective, the number of first-time unemployment claims is an important indicator of the health of the labor market. Although last week's data was slightly higher than expected, the gap was not large, which shows that the US job market is still strong. If this trend continues, it will have a certain impact on the economic recovery process. This data is slightly higher than expected, reflecting the fluctuations in some industries. For example, the wave of layoffs in the technology industry and supply chain problems in the manufacturing industry have led to the loss of some jobs. In addition, seasonal factors also affect the data, such as the reduction of temporary workers after the holidays.
Recently, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index has plummeted to 0.05, which means that the market performance of the two is gradually decoupling. Looking back on the past five years, BTC and SPX were highly positively correlated during the epidemic and from the end of 2021 to 2022. However, at the beginning of 2024, both rose significantly, but the recent trends have diverged. SPX continues to hit new highs, while BTC hovers around $60,000, occasionally falling below this level.
Analyzing the reasons, the first is the change in the macroeconomic environment. The rise of the S&P 500 reflects the market's optimistic expectations for the US economy, while the volatility of Bitcoin is more affected by internal factors in the crypto market, such as policies, technological development and market sentiment. Secondly, players' risk preferences are differentiated. In the economic recovery phase, more traditional players choose to return to the stock market, while the high volatility and uncertainty of the crypto market have caused some funds to temporarily flow out. From historical data, since 2019, BTC and SPX have been negatively correlated four times, each time indicating a local low in Bitcoin prices. Combined with the current market situation, Bitcoin may be in a potential bottom area. If BTC continues to hover or pulls back, players can pay attention to further market trends and potential rebound opportunities.
The announcement by the Paraguayan National Electricity Administration (ANDE) that it would increase electricity charges for cryptocurrency mining operators by 14% has had a significant impact on Paraguay's cryptocurrency mining industry. From a cost structure perspective, electricity charges account for a large proportion of mining costs. Therefore, rising electricity charges directly weaken the profitability of mining. Taking the current market situation as an example, a 14% increase in electricity charges has caused the profit margins of some mining operations to drop to near break-even points or even losses.
Policy uncertainty has further exacerbated market concerns. A company that planned to invest more than $400 million in Paraguay has announced its withdrawal, which shows that the market lacks confidence in Paraguay's policy environment. This not only affects existing mining operations, but also hinders future investment and expansion plans. Paraguay's move will weaken its competitiveness in the global cryptocurrency mining market, especially as other countries (such as Kazakhstan and the United States) increase their support for this field. In the future, Paraguay needs to provide a clearer and more stable environment in terms of policies and regulations to attract and retain players.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 330 coins yesterday, worth $20.5 million.
BTC: Yesterday, it closed a negative line and has now fallen below the 200-day moving average, indicating that the market sentiment is relatively pessimistic. The trading volume has increased significantly, reflecting the heavy selling pressure in the market. MACD shows a dead cross, and DIF and DEA are both below the zero axis, indicating that the market is in an obvious bearish trend. The long-short ratio remains high, with a net outflow of 330 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday. Combined with the cautious attitude shown in the recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes and market expectations for interest rate cuts, Bitcoin will continue to be affected by macroeconomic policies in the short term. It is possible to explore further, and continue to endure. During the bull market, you can just hold the currency in the long term.
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
The panic index is currently 44 (fear) #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 #以太坊ETF批准预期 #比特币走势分析