US President Biden's chances of reelection have dropped to 9%, a record low. In contrast, former President Trump's chances of being elected are as high as 61%. President Biden made it clear at a White House event on July 4 that he would continue to participate in the 2024 US presidential election and expressed his firm determination to run for office to thousands of active military personnel and their families. However, Biden's poor performance in the first televised debate held on the evening of June 27 has caused anxiety within the Democratic Party, and some members have even called for another candidate to run.
From the data analysis, the decline in Biden's re-election probability is related to many factors. First, the performance of the first TV debate has had a certain impact on the confidence of voters and party supporters. Secondly, the current economic situation, policy implementation effects and social problems may also have an impact on Biden's approval rating. On the other hand, Trump's high probability of election reflects his strong support within the Republican Party and among some voters. Trump demonstrated his solid support base and strong mobilization ability in previous campaigns, which makes his probability of election much higher than Biden.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline in recent days. During this decline, approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin with a holding period of 3-6 months was transferred. This indicates that some entities that purchased Bitcoin at the beginning of the year are now facing selling pressure, these entities are players speculating in Bitcoin ETF and halving expectations. Bitcoin holders with a one-year holding period have yet to significantly sell their holdings, meaning true long-term holders remain confident in Bitcoin’s future. However, the current selling behavior of buying entities at the beginning of the year has indeed put pressure on the market, resulting in a significant decline in the price of Bitcoin.
In addition, Wintermute founder and CEO Evgeny Gaevoy said on the X platform that the current market conditions are just a seasonal phenomenon in the summer. He believes the market will recover in August and September and return to stability before the U.S. election. Gaevoy's view is consistent with long-term holder confidence, suggesting the market may see signs of recovery in the coming months. Currently, according to data from Coingecko, the total market value of cryptocurrency has fallen below US$2.2 trillion to US$2.189 trillion, with a 24-hour drop of 6.2%. Bitcoin’s market value fell to US$1.124 trillion, and Ethereum’s market value dropped to US$370.4 billion. Although the market has experienced significant declines, players with longer holding periods remain confident and the possibility of a market recovery remains.
The news that 47,200 bitcoins were transferred from the Mt. Gox wallet has attracted widespread attention. According to PeckShield's monitoring, the bitcoins were transferred to two addresses: 44,500 (worth about $2.55 billion) were transferred to address 16ArP3...VqdF, while 2,700 (worth about $154.8 million) were transferred to the internal address 1JbezD...APs6. This large-scale transfer has triggered a lot of speculation and discussion in the market. Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy research, said on the X platform that the transfer may be to one of the distribution agents. He pointed out that if this speculation is correct, we may see more similar transfers in the future, with a total amount of about 100,000 bitcoins expected. Alex Thorn emphasized that unless the custodian unnecessarily readjusts the internal wallet, Mt. Gox's bitcoins are more likely to be held for a long time rather than sold. From the data analysis, 47,200 bitcoins account for about 0.24% of the current circulation of bitcoins. Although this number is not small, the trend of long-term holding will ease the market's concerns about large-scale sell-offs. In fact, if these bitcoins are held for a long time, the actual supply impact on the market will be relatively small, which will help maintain market stability.
Data shows that the German government has recently sold some of the seized bitcoins, but its holdings still exceed 40,000 BTC, which is worth about $2.3 billion at current market prices. Judging from the market reaction, the German government's large-scale sale of bitcoins will have a certain impact on the market. However, Justin Sun quickly tweeted that he was willing to purchase all the bitcoins held by the German government through over-the-counter (OTC) transactions to minimize the impact on the market. This move shows that Justin Sun hopes to avoid market fluctuations through private transactions and thus maintain market stability. From the perspective of data analysis, the 40,000 bitcoins held by the German government account for about 0.2% of the current circulation of bitcoins. Although this proportion seems small, large-scale selling behavior will still cause price fluctuations when market sentiment is more sensitive. On the other hand, the advantage of OTC transactions is that they are not conducted in the open market, so they have less direct impact on market prices.
BTC: Yesterday and today, there were obvious big negative lines, and it fell below the 200-day moving average. This trend shows that there is strong selling pressure in the market. The daily MACD shows that the DIF line and the DEA line are further down below the zero axis, and the red column is gradually getting longer, indicating that the downward trend is still strong. The long-short ratio is still high, combined with the recent large-scale selling of negative information in the market and the decline in the overall market value of the crypto market, which have exacerbated the market uncertainty and panic of players. Therefore, the bottom of this round may not be formed yet, so wait patiently.
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
The panic index is currently 29 (fear) #比特币走势分析 #德国政府转移比特币 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划
