美联储降息
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Analysis of the Logic Behind BTC Being Controlled by the Federal Reserve Last Week, Reflecting Differences in Holdings and Trading Data Showing More Speculative Funds in SUI
Macroeconomic Interpretation: Since last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the direction of U.S. monetary policy has become the focus of global financial markets. In particular, changes in expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 have been a source of concern for investors. As an emerging investment field, the volatility of the crypto market is closely watched. We will analyze the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations on the cryptocurrency market and explore how to respond.
1. Changes in Expectations
The December FOMC meeting took a hawkish stance: At the FOMC meeting in December 2024, the Federal Reserve's hawkish position exceeded market expectations. The meeting decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%, but the dot plot indicated that the interest rate cut space for 2025 was revised down to 50 basis points, a reduction of 50 basis points from the September forecast. Additionally, the meeting raised the real GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026, lowered the unemployment rate forecast, and significantly raised the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.5%.
1. Changes in Expectations
The December FOMC meeting took a hawkish stance: At the FOMC meeting in December 2024, the Federal Reserve's hawkish position exceeded market expectations. The meeting decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%, but the dot plot indicated that the interest rate cut space for 2025 was revised down to 50 basis points, a reduction of 50 basis points from the September forecast. Additionally, the meeting raised the real GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026, lowered the unemployment rate forecast, and significantly raised the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.5%.
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📊 Bitcoin and US stocks both fell after the FOMO meeting, is it related to the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell?
After Fed Chairman Powell's speech in the early hours of yesterday morning, the market experienced violent fluctuations. Not only did the price of Bitcoin fall all the way, but the decline of most altcoins even far exceeded that of Bitcoin, and the three major US stock indexes also suffered a heavy blow. The general market view is that the main reason for this wave of plunge is the adjustment of the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2025.
The market originally expected the Fed to cut interest rates four times in 2025, but after Powell's speech, most people believed that there might only be two interest rate cuts next year. This change in expectations, coupled with the impact of negative reports in related media, led to a comprehensive decline in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets.
However, there are also different views that the views of the market and the media are changing at any time. Although the current market is very volatile, if the market sentiment warms up in a week or two, and the price of Bitcoin hits a new high, then this volatility may not be mentioned again. Historical experience shows that each FOMC meeting will cause large market fluctuations before and after, but when the market returns to fundamentals, different news will dominate the market.
Therefore, some analysts believe that the impact of the Fed's hawkish remarks on the market may be short-lived and may only last for a few days. Once the market digests this news, a new narrative may be ushered in, and everyone's views may be different at that time.
🗣 Summary:
Fed Chairman Powell's speech triggered the market's adjustment of expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin and the US stock market. The market originally expected the Fed to cut interest rates four times in 2025, but Powell's remarks led many people to believe that the number of rate cuts may be halved.
This shift in expectations, coupled with negative media reports, caused panic selling in the market. Nevertheless, some analysts believe that this impact may be short-lived, and market sentiment and views may change at any time. Once the market digests this news, a new uptrend may be ushered in.
💬What do you think of this market decline? Do you think the Fed's remarks will have a long-term impact on cryptocurrencies and the stock market? Leave your opinions and insights in the comment section!
#美联储降息 #比特币下跌 #鲍威尔讲话 #股市下跌
After Fed Chairman Powell's speech in the early hours of yesterday morning, the market experienced violent fluctuations. Not only did the price of Bitcoin fall all the way, but the decline of most altcoins even far exceeded that of Bitcoin, and the three major US stock indexes also suffered a heavy blow. The general market view is that the main reason for this wave of plunge is the adjustment of the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2025.
The market originally expected the Fed to cut interest rates four times in 2025, but after Powell's speech, most people believed that there might only be two interest rate cuts next year. This change in expectations, coupled with the impact of negative reports in related media, led to a comprehensive decline in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets.
However, there are also different views that the views of the market and the media are changing at any time. Although the current market is very volatile, if the market sentiment warms up in a week or two, and the price of Bitcoin hits a new high, then this volatility may not be mentioned again. Historical experience shows that each FOMC meeting will cause large market fluctuations before and after, but when the market returns to fundamentals, different news will dominate the market.
Therefore, some analysts believe that the impact of the Fed's hawkish remarks on the market may be short-lived and may only last for a few days. Once the market digests this news, a new narrative may be ushered in, and everyone's views may be different at that time.
🗣 Summary:
Fed Chairman Powell's speech triggered the market's adjustment of expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin and the US stock market. The market originally expected the Fed to cut interest rates four times in 2025, but Powell's remarks led many people to believe that the number of rate cuts may be halved.
This shift in expectations, coupled with negative media reports, caused panic selling in the market. Nevertheless, some analysts believe that this impact may be short-lived, and market sentiment and views may change at any time. Once the market digests this news, a new uptrend may be ushered in.
💬What do you think of this market decline? Do you think the Fed's remarks will have a long-term impact on cryptocurrencies and the stock market? Leave your opinions and insights in the comment section!
#美联储降息 #比特币下跌 #鲍威尔讲话 #股市下跌
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Why has the cryptocurrency market dropped today?
#美联储降息 #BTC☀ #FLOKI🔥
In the past 24 hours, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies has dropped by 4.60%, suggesting a potential bearish trend by the end of this year. Bitcoin (BTC) has also fallen, during which many altcoins experienced double-digit losses. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, the dog-themed token Floki (FLOKI) saw the largest decline.
The Fed's interest rate cut led to a drop in Total's stock price, which may decline further.
As of December 18, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies was $3.63 trillion. Today, it has fallen to $3.43 trillion. This drop may be related to the Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points (25bps), down from the 50 basis points that the market expected a few months ago.
In the past 24 hours, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies has dropped by 4.60%, suggesting a potential bearish trend by the end of this year. Bitcoin (BTC) has also fallen, during which many altcoins experienced double-digit losses. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, the dog-themed token Floki (FLOKI) saw the largest decline.
The Fed's interest rate cut led to a drop in Total's stock price, which may decline further.
As of December 18, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies was $3.63 trillion. Today, it has fallen to $3.43 trillion. This drop may be related to the Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points (25bps), down from the 50 basis points that the market expected a few months ago.
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After this interest rate cut, the market and the Federal Reserve's dot plot show that almost all September expectations have been shattered. The median interest rate expectation and inflation have been raised, and the number of rate cuts in 2025 has been directly reduced by half, from 4 times to 2 times, reflecting the issue of sticky inflation. (This may pave the way for Trump's strong dollar policy and address the implementation of new policies.) I personally interpret this as bearish. I estimate that Powell's speech will also lean hawkish, and I will release the statistics after the speech ends!
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📉The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations; Powell's hawkish remarks lead to a market decline
In its latest interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%-4.5%, which aligns with basic market expectations. This is the third consecutive meeting where the Federal Reserve has announced a rate cut, bringing the total rate cut for the year to 100 basis points.
The Federal Reserve mentioned in its statement that recent economic data shows steady growth in economic activity, a easing labor market, rising unemployment rates but still at low levels, and inflation is close to the target but has slightly increased.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) aims for inflation to reach 2%, and to support these goals, the Committee will continue to reduce its balance sheet plan, which has received the support of most members, but Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (a voting member of the FOMC in 2024) opposed, arguing that interest rates should be maintained at 4.5%-4.75%.
The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that it expects to cut rates twice in 2025, down from four cuts projected in September, while inflation is expected to reach the 2% target level by 2027, delayed from the previously expected 2026.
This suggests that the Federal Reserve will reassess the magnitude and timing of future rate cuts and will carefully evaluate based on the latest data and changing outlooks and risks.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in a press conference that the Federal Reserve is not permitted to hold Bitcoin and does not anticipate changes to relevant legal provisions. Following these remarks, the U.S. stock market immediately responded with a decline. By the close of the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped by 2.58%, the Nasdaq had fallen by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.95%.
Additionally, the entire cryptocurrency market was also significantly affected, as data from Coinmarketcap showed that BTC had fallen by 5.71% and Ethereum by 7.27% over the past 24 hours.
This indicates that the market is sensitive to Powell's remarks, and investors are highly attentive to changes in the Federal Reserve's policies and regulatory stance.
#美联储降息 #经济数据 #鲍威尔 #美股下跌 #市场影响
In its latest interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%-4.5%, which aligns with basic market expectations. This is the third consecutive meeting where the Federal Reserve has announced a rate cut, bringing the total rate cut for the year to 100 basis points.
The Federal Reserve mentioned in its statement that recent economic data shows steady growth in economic activity, a easing labor market, rising unemployment rates but still at low levels, and inflation is close to the target but has slightly increased.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) aims for inflation to reach 2%, and to support these goals, the Committee will continue to reduce its balance sheet plan, which has received the support of most members, but Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (a voting member of the FOMC in 2024) opposed, arguing that interest rates should be maintained at 4.5%-4.75%.
The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that it expects to cut rates twice in 2025, down from four cuts projected in September, while inflation is expected to reach the 2% target level by 2027, delayed from the previously expected 2026.
This suggests that the Federal Reserve will reassess the magnitude and timing of future rate cuts and will carefully evaluate based on the latest data and changing outlooks and risks.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in a press conference that the Federal Reserve is not permitted to hold Bitcoin and does not anticipate changes to relevant legal provisions. Following these remarks, the U.S. stock market immediately responded with a decline. By the close of the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped by 2.58%, the Nasdaq had fallen by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.95%.
Additionally, the entire cryptocurrency market was also significantly affected, as data from Coinmarketcap showed that BTC had fallen by 5.71% and Ethereum by 7.27% over the past 24 hours.
This indicates that the market is sensitive to Powell's remarks, and investors are highly attentive to changes in the Federal Reserve's policies and regulatory stance.
#美联储降息 #经济数据 #鲍威尔 #美股下跌 #市场影响
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#美联储降息
The Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis point rate cut, which is inherently positive, so why did the market drop so much?
On December 18 local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with general market expectations.
On the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference regarding the rate cut decision. He stated that the Federal Reserve would likely be 'more cautious' when considering adjustments to policy rates in the future. Powell said that the decision to cut rates in December was more challenging, but it was the 'right decision'. He indicated that whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2025 will be based on future data rather than current forecasts, and that the Federal Reserve will consider further rate cuts only after improvements in inflation.
Previously, on November 26 local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on November 6-7. The minutes showed that the Federal Reserve decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the November meeting, noting that further adjustments to the monetary policy stance would help maintain a strong economy and labor market, while continuing to push inflation down further.
The Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis point rate cut, which is inherently positive, so why did the market drop so much?
On December 18 local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with general market expectations.
On the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a press conference regarding the rate cut decision. He stated that the Federal Reserve would likely be 'more cautious' when considering adjustments to policy rates in the future. Powell said that the decision to cut rates in December was more challenging, but it was the 'right decision'. He indicated that whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2025 will be based on future data rather than current forecasts, and that the Federal Reserve will consider further rate cuts only after improvements in inflation.
Previously, on November 26 local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on November 6-7. The minutes showed that the Federal Reserve decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the November meeting, noting that further adjustments to the monetary policy stance would help maintain a strong economy and labor market, while continuing to push inflation down further.
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The Fed's last meeting of the year! A 25 basis point rate cut, why did Powell reiterate that the Fed has no intention of holding Bitcoin?
Are you wondering what changes will occur in the market after the 25 basis point rate cut? Can the Fed's actions influence our upcoming investment decisions? Does Powell's latest speech imply heightened risks in the crypto market?
The answer may not be simple, but through in-depth analysis, we can more clearly see the deeper meaning behind this interest rate adjustment.
📉 How did the market react to the Fed's rate cut?
In the early hours of December 19, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to 4.25%-4.50%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut by the Fed. The rate cut was an action long anticipated by the market, but Powell later indicated that future rate cuts would be more cautious and that the room for further cuts is relatively limited. Overall, the Fed's current assessment of the economy is relatively optimistic; although the inflation rate has declined, it remains at a high level.
The answer may not be simple, but through in-depth analysis, we can more clearly see the deeper meaning behind this interest rate adjustment.
📉 How did the market react to the Fed's rate cut?
In the early hours of December 19, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to 4.25%-4.50%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut by the Fed. The rate cut was an action long anticipated by the market, but Powell later indicated that future rate cuts would be more cautious and that the room for further cuts is relatively limited. Overall, the Fed's current assessment of the economy is relatively optimistic; although the inflation rate has declined, it remains at a high level.
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In yesterday's article, I focused on interpreting the 'hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve' and the hawkish stance of #鲍威尔 . #BTC☀ also fell to the short-term support level near $99,200, as I analyzed on Monday and Tuesday. Here is also near the first trendline support, with the next trendline support around $96,800.
At three o'clock this morning, this meeting's #美联储降息 25 basis points met expectations. But importantly, the wording of the meeting statement has been adjusted, reflecting that the FOMC is considering changes in the pace and magnitude of subsequent policy implementations. There was also a divergence in the voting, with some members opposing a rate cut in December. Economic forecasts clearly reflect concerns about inflation risks, and the Federal Reserve's risk balance has evidently shifted back towards inflation. The dot plot only hints at two rate cuts next year, showing an absolute hawkish tendency. Powell is cautious about further rate cuts and expresses a hawkish stance.
After the meeting, the dollar surged, while U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all fell sharply.
The hawkish statement and stance have weakened expectations for the future path and level of rate cuts, meaning fewer rate cuts and a possibility of maintaining higher interest rates in the future. This is also the core logic behind this round of declines, and Powell's comments about #比特币储备 are merely a small catalyst. The significant drop of the three major stock indices, as evidenced by #美股 , clearly shows that the market's core logic is still a reaction to the strengthening dollar.
At three o'clock this morning, this meeting's #美联储降息 25 basis points met expectations. But importantly, the wording of the meeting statement has been adjusted, reflecting that the FOMC is considering changes in the pace and magnitude of subsequent policy implementations. There was also a divergence in the voting, with some members opposing a rate cut in December. Economic forecasts clearly reflect concerns about inflation risks, and the Federal Reserve's risk balance has evidently shifted back towards inflation. The dot plot only hints at two rate cuts next year, showing an absolute hawkish tendency. Powell is cautious about further rate cuts and expresses a hawkish stance.
After the meeting, the dollar surged, while U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all fell sharply.
The hawkish statement and stance have weakened expectations for the future path and level of rate cuts, meaning fewer rate cuts and a possibility of maintaining higher interest rates in the future. This is also the core logic behind this round of declines, and Powell's comments about #比特币储备 are merely a small catalyst. The significant drop of the three major stock indices, as evidenced by #美股 , clearly shows that the market's core logic is still a reaction to the strengthening dollar.
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Tonight is likely to be a sleepless night for most people, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is likely to lower rates, but there is still a certain chance that they will remain unchanged! #美联储降息
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The benefits of the U.S. interest rate cut for the cryptocurrency market such as Bitcoin are multifaceted:
Increased Investment Attraction
The Federal Reserve's rate cut will lower the yields on dollar assets. To pursue higher-yielding assets, investors may turn their attention to cryptocurrencies, thereby increasing investment demand in the crypto market and driving up prices.
Highlighted Safe-Haven Attributes
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are often seen as safe-haven assets against economic uncertainty. Rate cuts are typically viewed as signals of potential economic downturns. In this context, to hedge against potential economic or market risks, investors may allocate some of their assets to cryptocurrencies.
Increased Market Liquidity
A rate cut will lead to increased liquidity in global markets, and some funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, enhancing trading activity, market liquidity, and trading volume for cryptocurrencies. However, this may also exacerbate market volatility.
Friendly Regulatory Environment
After taking office, the administration has committed to creating a friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, appointing relevant personnel to promote the development of the crypto industry. This is a policy benefit for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, boosting market confidence and expectations.
Increased Demand for Cross-Border Transactions
The exchange rate fluctuations triggered by rate cuts may lead investors to use cryptocurrencies for cross-border transactions to evade capital controls. The increase in cross-border capital flows will have a positive impact on the liquidity and trading activities in the cryptocurrency market! #美联储降息
Increased Investment Attraction
The Federal Reserve's rate cut will lower the yields on dollar assets. To pursue higher-yielding assets, investors may turn their attention to cryptocurrencies, thereby increasing investment demand in the crypto market and driving up prices.
Highlighted Safe-Haven Attributes
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are often seen as safe-haven assets against economic uncertainty. Rate cuts are typically viewed as signals of potential economic downturns. In this context, to hedge against potential economic or market risks, investors may allocate some of their assets to cryptocurrencies.
Increased Market Liquidity
A rate cut will lead to increased liquidity in global markets, and some funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, enhancing trading activity, market liquidity, and trading volume for cryptocurrencies. However, this may also exacerbate market volatility.
Friendly Regulatory Environment
After taking office, the administration has committed to creating a friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, appointing relevant personnel to promote the development of the crypto industry. This is a policy benefit for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, boosting market confidence and expectations.
Increased Demand for Cross-Border Transactions
The exchange rate fluctuations triggered by rate cuts may lead investors to use cryptocurrencies for cross-border transactions to evade capital controls. The increase in cross-border capital flows will have a positive impact on the liquidity and trading activities in the cryptocurrency market! #美联储降息
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December 18th Cryptocurrency Market Important News Overview:
1. #BTC☀ Continues to Break New Highs: Bitcoin has risen for three consecutive days, reaching a peak of $108,353, very close to the $110,000 mark. Bitcoin is leading the market, while altcoins are performing weakly. Ethereum has dropped to around $3,870, Dogecoin has fallen to $3.88, and XRP has corrected to $2.56. However, HSk remains strong, reaching a new high of $2.2.
2. Bloomberg Analysts Predict: A wave of cryptocurrency ETFs is expected to be launched next year, with XRP and SOL likely following LTC and HBAR ETFs, becoming #重点关注 objects.
3. #MicroStrategy Market Cap Surge: If Bitcoin rises to $138,000, MicroStrategy's market cap will surpass that of Starbucks and Nike. MicroStrategy currently holds 439,000 Bitcoins, making it the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
4. #BVNK Completes Financing: Stablecoin infrastructure platform BVNK successfully completed a $50 million Series B financing round, led by Haun Ventures.
5. #美联储降息 High Probability: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 95.4%.
1. #BTC☀ Continues to Break New Highs: Bitcoin has risen for three consecutive days, reaching a peak of $108,353, very close to the $110,000 mark. Bitcoin is leading the market, while altcoins are performing weakly. Ethereum has dropped to around $3,870, Dogecoin has fallen to $3.88, and XRP has corrected to $2.56. However, HSk remains strong, reaching a new high of $2.2.
2. Bloomberg Analysts Predict: A wave of cryptocurrency ETFs is expected to be launched next year, with XRP and SOL likely following LTC and HBAR ETFs, becoming #重点关注 objects.
3. #MicroStrategy Market Cap Surge: If Bitcoin rises to $138,000, MicroStrategy's market cap will surpass that of Starbucks and Nike. MicroStrategy currently holds 439,000 Bitcoins, making it the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
4. #BVNK Completes Financing: Stablecoin infrastructure platform BVNK successfully completed a $50 million Series B financing round, led by Haun Ventures.
5. #美联储降息 High Probability: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 95.4%.
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The results of #美联储降息 will be announced tonight at midnight, and the current probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 97%
#BTC is almost the only one standing out, just as I have said for a long time, I currently see no threat to BTC. Continuing to break previous highs.
Here are ten major reasons why #BTC poses no threat:
1. After the United States publicly announced that it would include BTC in its national strategic reserves, many legislators from Europe, Japan, Russia, the UK, Poland, and other countries have successively proposed making BTC a strategic reserve, which actually means that the BTC we hold has also become a strategic reserve.
2. The cost of BTC mining has increased, mining difficulty has risen, and the production is halved every four years.
3. BTC is irreplaceable and has long been used for transactions in gray industries, such as arms, gambling, drugs, mercenaries, and the dark web, with its daily trading volume consistently maintaining above 200 million USD.
4. The cryptocurrency that institutions and countries prefer to hoard is BTC, because any person or institution can issue unlimited altcoins.
5. The long-term game between countries and institutions remains a financial war, and this competition brings trading volume and a significant influx of capital.
6. The lasting effects of Trump's presidency, as well as the effects of BlackRock, Grayscale, and others.
7. The number of retail and institutional investors globally investing in BTC continues to grow, with known domestic investors like Lei Jun, Liu Qiangdong, Meitu, and others successively investing in BTC.
8. Bitcoin ETFs have also become an important channel for many prominent figures and corrupt officials to hedge and transfer assets.
9. Changes in the regulatory environment, where most countries were previously suppressing it, have gradually loosened regulatory policies in recent years.
10. The development of the global macro economy has made Bitcoin one of the tools for inflation.
#BTC is almost the only one standing out, just as I have said for a long time, I currently see no threat to BTC. Continuing to break previous highs.
Here are ten major reasons why #BTC poses no threat:
1. After the United States publicly announced that it would include BTC in its national strategic reserves, many legislators from Europe, Japan, Russia, the UK, Poland, and other countries have successively proposed making BTC a strategic reserve, which actually means that the BTC we hold has also become a strategic reserve.
2. The cost of BTC mining has increased, mining difficulty has risen, and the production is halved every four years.
3. BTC is irreplaceable and has long been used for transactions in gray industries, such as arms, gambling, drugs, mercenaries, and the dark web, with its daily trading volume consistently maintaining above 200 million USD.
4. The cryptocurrency that institutions and countries prefer to hoard is BTC, because any person or institution can issue unlimited altcoins.
5. The long-term game between countries and institutions remains a financial war, and this competition brings trading volume and a significant influx of capital.
6. The lasting effects of Trump's presidency, as well as the effects of BlackRock, Grayscale, and others.
7. The number of retail and institutional investors globally investing in BTC continues to grow, with known domestic investors like Lei Jun, Liu Qiangdong, Meitu, and others successively investing in BTC.
8. Bitcoin ETFs have also become an important channel for many prominent figures and corrupt officials to hedge and transfer assets.
9. Changes in the regulatory environment, where most countries were previously suppressing it, have gradually loosened regulatory policies in recent years.
10. The development of the global macro economy has made Bitcoin one of the tools for inflation.
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📈 Analyst's View: Boosted by the Christmas Rally, Bitcoin Aims for the $120,000 Mark by the End of the Month!
According to foreign media reports, influenced by the upcoming Christmas rally, traders expect Bitcoin's target price to reach $120,000. They believe that after Bitcoin breaks through $106,000, the next target price is around $120,000.
The traders' predictions are based on the increased transparency of U.S. regulations regarding cryptocurrency and the continued positive performance of the Bitcoin spot ETF market. Additionally, historically, December has typically been a good month for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, investor sentiment is currently very high, partly due to Trump stating in a recent interview that he might designate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. on his first day in office.
Moreover, the market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement interest rate cuts on Wednesday. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point cut currently stands at 95.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped to 4.6%, showing a significant difference compared to the previous month's probabilities of 61.9% and 38.1%. In summary, driven by these numerous positive news, Bitcoin's performance in the next two weeks is highly anticipated.
Analysts also pointed out that if Bitcoin's price rises to $125,000, it may experience a 30% correction, as historically, major bull markets have seen corrections of 20-30%, and this current bull market has not yet seen such a situation. This could be a sign of a super cycle, and as Bitcoin's market capitalization increases, volatility may gradually decrease, leading to a reduction in past 30% corrections to 15-20%.
If Bitcoin experiences a 30% correction after rising to $125,000, the price may fall back to around $87,000. However, if Bitcoin corrects by 30% after rising to $110,000, it could drop to $77,000-$78,000, which would just fill the previous futures gap. As for whether this futures gap will be filled now, wait until the next bear market, or never be filled, this is also a question that market participants need to pay attention to.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's price trend moving forward? How do you think the Christmas rally will impact Bitcoin?
According to foreign media reports, influenced by the upcoming Christmas rally, traders expect Bitcoin's target price to reach $120,000. They believe that after Bitcoin breaks through $106,000, the next target price is around $120,000.
The traders' predictions are based on the increased transparency of U.S. regulations regarding cryptocurrency and the continued positive performance of the Bitcoin spot ETF market. Additionally, historically, December has typically been a good month for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, investor sentiment is currently very high, partly due to Trump stating in a recent interview that he might designate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. on his first day in office.
Moreover, the market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement interest rate cuts on Wednesday. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point cut currently stands at 95.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped to 4.6%, showing a significant difference compared to the previous month's probabilities of 61.9% and 38.1%. In summary, driven by these numerous positive news, Bitcoin's performance in the next two weeks is highly anticipated.
Analysts also pointed out that if Bitcoin's price rises to $125,000, it may experience a 30% correction, as historically, major bull markets have seen corrections of 20-30%, and this current bull market has not yet seen such a situation. This could be a sign of a super cycle, and as Bitcoin's market capitalization increases, volatility may gradually decrease, leading to a reduction in past 30% corrections to 15-20%.
If Bitcoin experiences a 30% correction after rising to $125,000, the price may fall back to around $87,000. However, if Bitcoin corrects by 30% after rising to $110,000, it could drop to $77,000-$78,000, which would just fill the previous futures gap. As for whether this futures gap will be filled now, wait until the next bear market, or never be filled, this is also a question that market participants need to pay attention to.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin's price trend moving forward? How do you think the Christmas rally will impact Bitcoin?
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After hitting a new high of around $107,777 (#BTC☀ ), there was a slight pullback before continuing to rebound, consistent with yesterday's prediction that the overall trend will be 'first up and then down.' The overnight SEC filing disclosed that #MicroStrategy has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing 15,350 Bitcoins last week at an average of $100,386, which has propelled Bitcoin prices to continue reaching historical highs alongside the US stock index #纳斯达克 .
The daily line reported a medium bullish candle this morning with a small upper shadow. In our article this afternoon, we discussed that there would be a pullback followed by a rebound during the day. The overall strategy remains unchanged: aside from recent highs, there are no historical resistance levels to refer to, and short-term gains and losses should reference yesterday's low point near $103,333. Support can be found around the weekend's pullback low points of $100,610 and $99,212. As long as these levels are not broken, the market is likely to continue in a bullish trend. The trend indicator on the 4-hour level has shown bullish signals since December 12, and it is advisable to consider maintaining a right-side trading strategy focused on buying during pullbacks.
It is expected that the bullish trend will be maintained until the landing of #美联储降息 this week.
The daily line reported a medium bullish candle this morning with a small upper shadow. In our article this afternoon, we discussed that there would be a pullback followed by a rebound during the day. The overall strategy remains unchanged: aside from recent highs, there are no historical resistance levels to refer to, and short-term gains and losses should reference yesterday's low point near $103,333. Support can be found around the weekend's pullback low points of $100,610 and $99,212. As long as these levels are not broken, the market is likely to continue in a bullish trend. The trend indicator on the 4-hour level has shown bullish signals since December 12, and it is advisable to consider maintaining a right-side trading strategy focused on buying during pullbacks.
It is expected that the bullish trend will be maintained until the landing of #美联储降息 this week.
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Has the BTC market correction officially ended? Five hot events worth watching this week revealed!
This week, the Bitcoin market will usher in five key events, each of which may have a profound impact on the direction of the cryptocurrency.
First of all, Bitcoin has achieved an increase of more than 26% since the current low of 49,000. It is currently above the bull market support line and the 200-day moving average, so the next trend is also worthy of our attention.
First, we need to focus on the performance of Bitcoin's monthly line. Although the monthly line is currently in a negative state, if the closing price in August can break through the $65,000 mark, it will mark the monthly line turning from negative to positive, highlighting the strong momentum of the market. Even if it fails to close positive, considering that there is not much time left in this month, the possibility of falling below the previous low of $49,000 is quite low. Therefore, the general analysis still tends to believe that Bitcoin remains on the upward track of the bull market.
First of all, Bitcoin has achieved an increase of more than 26% since the current low of 49,000. It is currently above the bull market support line and the 200-day moving average, so the next trend is also worthy of our attention.
First, we need to focus on the performance of Bitcoin's monthly line. Although the monthly line is currently in a negative state, if the closing price in August can break through the $65,000 mark, it will mark the monthly line turning from negative to positive, highlighting the strong momentum of the market. Even if it fails to close positive, considering that there is not much time left in this month, the possibility of falling below the previous low of $49,000 is quite low. Therefore, the general analysis still tends to believe that Bitcoin remains on the upward track of the bull market.
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Is the Fed practicing its iron-headed skills?
As long as the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, does not cut interest rates, and siphons global liquidity, it will definitely put pressure on the exchange rates of other countries. Compared with the daily life, we have already defended it very well.
Bitcoin next door continued to fall sharply today. This place that is most directly affected by liquidity can be clearly seen. Even with the halving every four years and the clear cards of ETF passing, the power of interest rate hikes can also force you to press a small bear market.
Last week, the debate between the King of Understanding and the King of Sleep was obviously at a disadvantage. I have said before that if the sponsor supports the Democratic Party, then the US stock market will definitely not collapse, and interest rate cuts will come immediately. If the sponsor supports the King of Understanding, then interest rate cuts will definitely not come immediately, and there will even be one or two interest rate hikes (surprise or not?)
At present, it seems that there is a trend and sign of the King of Understanding's return.
Speaking of which, if this continues, the East and the West will compete for both superiority and life and death. The financial market will be completely involved, and a bunch of economic theories will have no say.
First, the consumption suppression brought about by high interest rates will further hit our exports and foreign trade. Many fragile economies face systemic risks. The balance sheets of national companies and individuals will take longer to repair. The fight between the East and the West will further weaken the consensus of globalization. We are likely to be on the eve of a great depression.
Secondly, our AAA cannot go well. There are so many things to protect with limited bullets, such as houses, DFZF, debts, exchange rates, and it is not their turn.
Thirdly, the Americans themselves are likely to do stress tests. Even if they cannot pay back hundreds of banks and interest, they will drag down the biggest opponent. Anyway, they have already gone all in. If they win, the problem will be solved. If they cannot win, they will suffer a bloodbath.
Finally, all markets such as Bitcoin will be drained, and various high-quality assets will usher in a violent killing. At that time, it will be another round of extremely cruel and profitable wealth transfer.
The good show is still to come. Are you ready?
If you don't know what to do with the current market and keep losing money, come to May #美联储降息 #BTC走势分析 #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 $WLD $PEPE
As long as the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates, does not cut interest rates, and siphons global liquidity, it will definitely put pressure on the exchange rates of other countries. Compared with the daily life, we have already defended it very well.
Bitcoin next door continued to fall sharply today. This place that is most directly affected by liquidity can be clearly seen. Even with the halving every four years and the clear cards of ETF passing, the power of interest rate hikes can also force you to press a small bear market.
Last week, the debate between the King of Understanding and the King of Sleep was obviously at a disadvantage. I have said before that if the sponsor supports the Democratic Party, then the US stock market will definitely not collapse, and interest rate cuts will come immediately. If the sponsor supports the King of Understanding, then interest rate cuts will definitely not come immediately, and there will even be one or two interest rate hikes (surprise or not?)
At present, it seems that there is a trend and sign of the King of Understanding's return.
Speaking of which, if this continues, the East and the West will compete for both superiority and life and death. The financial market will be completely involved, and a bunch of economic theories will have no say.
First, the consumption suppression brought about by high interest rates will further hit our exports and foreign trade. Many fragile economies face systemic risks. The balance sheets of national companies and individuals will take longer to repair. The fight between the East and the West will further weaken the consensus of globalization. We are likely to be on the eve of a great depression.
Secondly, our AAA cannot go well. There are so many things to protect with limited bullets, such as houses, DFZF, debts, exchange rates, and it is not their turn.
Thirdly, the Americans themselves are likely to do stress tests. Even if they cannot pay back hundreds of banks and interest, they will drag down the biggest opponent. Anyway, they have already gone all in. If they win, the problem will be solved. If they cannot win, they will suffer a bloodbath.
Finally, all markets such as Bitcoin will be drained, and various high-quality assets will usher in a violent killing. At that time, it will be another round of extremely cruel and profitable wealth transfer.
The good show is still to come. Are you ready?
If you don't know what to do with the current market and keep losing money, come to May #美联储降息 #BTC走势分析 #美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 $WLD $PEPE
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Bitcoin faces a critical week: Is its market share about to peak and a prelude to the altcoin season?
In the next two to three weeks, the Bitcoin market is about to usher in a decisive moment, which is not only related to the subsequent development trend of Bitcoin, but also may trigger the prelude of the altcoin season. At this critical moment, we must go beyond short-term fluctuations and gain insight into the deep pulse of the market.
Bitcoin weekly trend:
The next two to three weeks will be crucial for the Bitcoin market. If Bitcoin can break through and stabilize above the 200-day moving average near $6,3000 in two to three weeks, we may usher in a crazy bull market. If not, the market may continue to fluctuate or experience a short-term correction.
Bitcoin weekly trend:
The next two to three weeks will be crucial for the Bitcoin market. If Bitcoin can break through and stabilize above the 200-day moving average near $6,3000 in two to three weeks, we may usher in a crazy bull market. If not, the market may continue to fluctuate or experience a short-term correction.
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$BTC
BTC plunged straight down, plunging 25% in 7 days, is the bull market still there?
Why did the Fed start to cut interest rates next month, and then it started to plummet wildly?
What is the essence behind it?
Is it an economic crisis caused by the recession? Or is it to buy high-quality assets at the bottom?
ETH SOL GFT PEPE WIF OP
Where can I buy at the bottom?
#美联储降息 #暴跌抄底
BTC plunged straight down, plunging 25% in 7 days, is the bull market still there?
Why did the Fed start to cut interest rates next month, and then it started to plummet wildly?
What is the essence behind it?
Is it an economic crisis caused by the recession? Or is it to buy high-quality assets at the bottom?
ETH SOL GFT PEPE WIF OP
Where can I buy at the bottom?
#美联储降息 #暴跌抄底