June 24-June 28 Macroeconomic Events Outlook Roadmap! Recommended Reading: ★★★★★
Next week we will have the last important data in May - PCE inflation data.
This month's dot plot and Powell's speech said that the expectation for rate cuts in 2024 has been reduced to one, but the market believes that the Fed's views are too biased. The market is still optimistic that there will be two rate cuts, so this month's PCE data will further verify this view.
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June 24:
22:30 U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for June, previous value -19.4, expected -15,
The Dallas Fed's business activity data is collected from Texas, which is an important economic region for manufacturing, agriculture, etc. in the United States, so this data can provide a very intuitive understanding of the economic activities in the United States. The expected value of the data is rising and gradually moving above the 0 axis, which means that economic activities continue to recover. The increase in economic activities means that the economy is better, but it is not conducive to inflation control.
Data weight: ★★ The intuitive impact is small.
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June 25:
02:00 U.S. 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly delivers a speech on monetary policy and the economy.
Last week, the Fed's speeches were all hawkish, but the first Fed official who spoke this week was dovish. Daly has expressed her views on monetary easing policy many times, but Daly's focus is on economic growth and the job market. Given the current economic growth and employment situation in the United States, it is not known what kind of market-oriented remarks Daly will make on the eve of the PCE announcement, but it is estimated that most of her views will be lukewarm.
Data weight: ★★ Little impact, unless a clear position statement is made.
21:00 US April FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate, Previous Value 0.10% Expected 0.30%
The data is compiled by U.S. real estate agencies based on the price changes of houses for which equity loans are provided. The data is expected to be higher than the previous value. U.S. real estate prices are expected to continue to rise. If house prices continue to rise under high interest rates in the United States, it is either because of high inflation or because of market supply and demand. According to this week's existing home sales data, existing home sales have declined. However, if house prices in April do rise as expected, the increase in rental costs brought about by the rise will pass on the inflationary pressure and even affect the inflation data in May.
Data weight: ★★ The impact of a single data is relatively weak.
The annual rate of the S&P/CS 20-city house price index in April was 7.38% in the previous month and 7.00% in the expected month.
The index is released at the same time as the FHFA data, but the data is based on changes in housing prices in 20 large cities in the United States and is a leading indicator of the real estate market.
This indicator predicts that housing prices will weaken, which is contrary to the FHFA data expectations. Of course, there is a deviation in the statistical caliber of both parties.
At the same time, the index is also used to measure housing prices in April. If the data difference is not large, it will not have much impact on the inflation data in May.
Data weight: ★★ The impact of a single data is small.
19:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman delivers a speech on monetary policy and bank capital reform.
Bowman is a hawk, so it is estimated that he will not be able to say too many good things in favor of interest rate cuts in his speech. However, as long as the tone is similar to Powell’s speech last week, it will basically not bring too much negative sentiment to the market. After all, at this time, there is no possibility of an interest rate hike.
Data weight: ★★ Probably the same statement as the old hawks
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June 26
22:00 U.S. May new home sales (10,000 households) Previous value 63.4, expected 64.5
U.S. new home sales in May: Annualized monthly rate: Previous value: -4.7%; expected value: 1.7%
The two data directly reflect the number of new home sales in the United States in May. The data expects an increase in sales. If the data meets expectations and the new home sales data increases, it will actually be beneficial for rents. More people are willing to buy new homes, so the pressure on the rental market will be reduced, and rents will naturally fall, which is beneficial to inflation.
However, under the current high interest rates, the increase in the number of new home sales may be due to the purchasing power brought by new immigrants, while native Americans still face higher rents, so this data can only be used as a reference.
Data weight: ★★★
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June 27
04:30 The Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual bank stress test.
This data actually seems to be basically negligible. Let me mention it here. Powell mentioned banks in his speech and interview last week. Powell believes that the banking industry is still healthy, so there will be basically no major changes in this stress test, which should be in line with Powell's point of view.
Data weight: ★ The data itself is important, but this stress test is not objective enough, so it is marked as 1 ★
20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 22 (10,000 people) Previous value 23.8 Expected 23.5
Initial jobless claims are a regular feature of the weekly data. In the weak liquidity environment in recent weeks, the weekly initial jobless claims can bring some vitality to the market, and this week it brought a 500-point fluctuation. This week's initial jobless claims are the first decline in data since May 18, and the market's expectation for the data next week is also a decline, which means that the data expects the employment market to remain flexible.
Data weight: ★★★ This data will bring short-term fluctuations to the market, but the impact will not be too great.
Final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States, the initial value was 1.30% and the expected value was 1.40%
This data is released at the same time as the unemployment benefits for the same week.
The preliminary value was released one month after the end of the first quarter. The original initial data for the US GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was 1.6%, which was later revised to 1.3% in May.
The final value will be released three months after the end of the first quarter. The data predicts that the US GDP in the first quarter will be 1.4%. In the economic growth stage, if the data meets expectations or even exceeds expectations and the previous value, it proves that the pace of US economic growth has not stopped. At the same time, we can see the intention of revising the first quarter GDP from 1.6 to 1.3 in May.
The GDP data for the first quarter has not been revised. If the final value is lower than the initial value, it means that the economy declined in the first quarter, and the expectation of interest rate cut will be greatly increased. On the contrary, the continued growth of GDP is one of the keys to suppress interest rate cuts.
There have been recent rumors that many people believe that the US GDP in the second quarter may be significantly higher than the first quarter.
Data weight: ★★★ The data weight is relatively high, but because the data basically does not deviate too much from expectations, the possible fluctuations will not be too large, so the number of ★ marks is relatively small.
The final value of the quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the first quarter of the United States was 2%, which was expected to be
It is released at the same time as the final GDP value for the first quarter.
The actual PCE rate in the first quarter,
Data weight: ★★
The final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the first quarter of the United States was 3.60% in the initial value and 3.60% in the expected value
It is released at the same time as the final GDP value for the first quarter.
The core PCE index in the United States in the first quarter has basically the same numerical expectations as the initial value. If the published data is in line with expectations, the core PCE index in the first quarter of 2024 will still show a significant increase compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, and inflationary pressure will still exist. At the same time, this is also what Powell talked about in his speech last week. The core PCE is still resilient and under pressure, so there is reason to continue to maintain high interest rates.
Data weight: ★★★
22:00 U.S. May existing home sales index monthly rate, previous value -7.7% expected 1.10%
The data on existing home sales in the United States in May is expected to show a sharp increase in existing home sales in May. This expectation is consistent with the expectation of new home sales. If the existing home sales data is indeed increased, the increased sales volume will also provide a significant buffer for the rental data in the May inflation data, and will also reduce the inflationary pressure in May.
Data weight: ★★ As one of the parameters for estimating May PCE, the impact of a single data point is small.
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June 28
20:30 US May core PCE price index annual rate, previous value 2.80%, expected 2.60%
The theme and highlight of next week's macro data is the PCE index, which is also an important inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays close attention to. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly used the elasticity of PCE as a reason to maintain high interest rates.
The data is expected to be lower than the previous value. If it is in line with expectations, although it will not increase the possibility of more interest rate cuts in 2024, it will undoubtedly help the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2024. Inflation continues to be effectively controlled, which is a key factor in promoting interest rate cuts and can also increase the probability of the first interest rate cut in September.
If it is higher than expected and equal to the previous value, then the probability of two interest rate cuts will be expected to decrease again.
Data weight: ★★★★★ A single data will not have much impact on the market, but the more market expectation adjustments brought about by the data will be very important data in the near future, and it will also be one of the important data that determines whether the recent crypto market sentiment can be reversed.
US May personal spending monthly rate, previous value 0.20% expected 0.30%
The monthly rate is compared with the inflation data of the previous month. The data expectation is that the inflation data in May will be higher than that in April. If the data meets expectations, then the US inflation data in May will be lower on a month-on-month basis, but there will still be pressure in the short term compared with the same period last year.
Data weight: ★★★★ This data, combined with the PCE annual rate, is often a good data for the Federal Reserve to use for Tai Chi.
U.S. core PCE price index monthly rate in May, previous value 0.20% expected 0.10%
Core PCE is the data after excluding energy and food. At the same time, core PCE is also one of the data that Powell attaches importance to. The data is expected to be lower than the previous value. If the data released is in line with expectations, the core PCE monthly rate in May will be obviously controlled after excluding energy and food, which will undoubtedly be an important boost to interest rate cuts.
However, according to forward-looking data, U.S. energy prices did fall in May. If the core PCE excluding energy continues to decline, then it will be necessary to ensure that rent and service industry data also decline. I personally feel that this may be a bit difficult.
Data weight: ★★★★
22:00 Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June, previous value 65.6, expected value 66
This data is the final data released by the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index in June. The index also measures respondents' expectations for U.S. consumption in June and in the future. The higher the data expectations, the more optimistic it is about economic development and income, and it will also bring pressure on inflation.
This data is expected to be slightly higher than the previous value, which means that in the minds of the respondents, the future economic outlook for the United States will continue to maintain good growth, and at the same time they have optimistic expectations for their own income, which will stimulate consumption.
Data weight: ★★★ This data is still relatively important for June inflation expectations, but the theme of next week is the PCE data for May. In comparison, we naturally reduce the weight of the data's influence by 1 star.
The above is the roadmap for next week’s macroeconomic data events. Friends who are interested can collect or forward it. Next week we will face the end of June. Whether it is the technical monthly closing or the macro data game this month, it will come to an end. At the same time, the crypto market that has been silent for more than half a month will also become active next week. Whether it is good or bad, it is actually better than being so annoying now.
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