Bitcoin rose and then fell last week. The price once rose to $65,000 due to the expected adjustment of the Fed's loose policy, but on Friday, the price fell to $61,000 due to the continuous outflow of GBTC funds. As mentioned earlier, the current price fluctuations are almost all following the Bitcoin ETF. Recently, the buying momentum of the Bitcoin ETF has indeed entered a plateau period, and the growth rate is not as strong as last quarter.

Bitcoin saw a net inflow of more than $200 million on May 3 and 6, and then turned to continuous net outflow on May 7, until a net outflow of nearly $100 million was seen on May 10. The price of Bitcoin also fluctuated in this direction. Although Bitcoin did not follow the US technology stocks to approach its previous historical highs again, there is indeed selling pressure in the market recently. It seems a bit too risky to simply hope that the growth of the Bitcoin ETF will bring buying.

First of all, the recent selling wave in mining farms has been too aggressive. We speculate that the energy prices of mining farms have increased significantly. Recently, the energy demand in the United States has been squeezed by the demand of AI data centers, and mining farms cannot obtain the same favorable electricity prices as in the past. In addition, the electricity prices in other countries also require higher cooling costs as the weather warms up and enters summer. The recent cash flow pressure on mining farms does exist.

Some mining farms even choose to end operations directly due to excessively high operating costs. This is because the next batch of high-performance mining machines, that is, three-nanometer node mining machines, will be deployed in the mining farms one after another, causing the previous computing power to continue to soar. Mining farms that are not cost-effective can only choose to close operations, which also seems to have caused a slight decline in the Bitcoin computing power network.

But there is still good news. JP Morgan Group recently disclosed in SEC documents that they hold Bitcoin ETFs worth approximately US$1.2 million, indicating that institutions are gradually accepting Bitcoin ETFs. We expect that more and more institutions will enter into Bitcoin ETF investment. At the same time, more fund companies in non-US regions will also sell Bitcoin ETFs, which will help the entire cryptocurrency market to grow gradually.

This week, the FTX restructuring team submitted a proposal to the court, arguing that they will be able to repay 98% of all users' asset balances plus an annual 9% profit compensation. However, many people are worried that the legal currency liquidation will cause the market price to collapse. However, the quick conclusion is that investors do not need to worry that FTX liquidation will cause prices to fall, because the exchange has already sold most of its assets into cash, and the bull market last quarter successfully took on the selling pressure.

FTX's liquidation plan still has many variables, and cryptocurrency liquidation will not affect prices

In September last year, FTX obtained permission from the court to sell cryptocurrency assets. There are also news reports that FTX has sold its GBTC shares, and other cryptocurrencies have been sent to cryptocurrency exchanges for sale. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the price of Bitcoin or Ethereum being impacted by the FTX sell-off. The exchange currently holds the most locked SOL tokens. FTX also sold part of the SOL during the previous surge, and it happened that the market was hot and successfully absorbed the selling pressure. The remaining locked SOL was transferred to other institutional investors through auctions.

According to a report by Block, FTX sold SOL to Galaxy Trading and Pantera at an auction price of $64 in March, which was about two-thirds of the total locked amount, amounting to about $1.7 billion. In April, it sold another $230 million worth of SOL to Galaxy Trading at a price of about $95. It can be seen that FTX has converted its SOL holdings into cash by transferring ownership.

The prices of the previous and most recent auctions were locked, making the auction prices much lower than the market price of $150. Since most of the assets have been converted into cash, it can be expected that even if FTX starts to compensate users, it will not immediately impact the cryptocurrency price.

How to view this week's market

Several scenarios, determined by the peace talks between Israel and Hamas and Wednesday's CPI data

(1) Successful negotiation + CPI lower than expected - BTC soars back to $70,000, the bull market returns quickly, great news

(2) Failure of peace talks + CPI lower than expected: Failure of peace talks leads to a sharp drop, while CPI lower than expected leads to a rebound. The positive and negative factors offset each other, and BTC fluctuates around $60,000, but the altcoins bleed and get hurt.

(3) Successful negotiation + CPI higher than expected - In this case, successful negotiation is not a positive sign. It can only be said that the price will not fall. If CPI is higher than expected, it will definitely fall sharply, with a high probability of a spike to 5.8.

(4) Failure of peace talks + CPI higher than expected - both are negative factors, the market will fall sharply, with a hard bottom of 5.3

Lower your expectations in the next two days, and you can buy at the bottom if there is a big drop.

OpenAI held a press conference today. If WLD is in stock and it rises sharply, remember to sell it first. When all the good news is out, it will turn into bad news. Buy it back if it falls later.

Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.