1. In terms of time: the decline since mid-March has lasted for 50 days. According to the historical rhythm of BTC, during the bull market in 2017 and 2021, the bottoming out of the correction lasted only 35 days at most. Therefore, this round of decline took much longer than in the past
2. From the moving average: some coins just stepped back on the weekly MA20 (BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, BCH), some just stepped back on the weekly MA60 (OP, APT), and some completely fell through (ARB). BTC stepped back on the weekly MA20 many times during the bull market in 2017, and did not step back on the weekly MA20 during the bull market in 2021. Therefore, it can be determined that the rhythm of this round of BTC is different from that in 2021
3. In terms of emotions: the rebound process of this round of decline was not accompanied by strong bullish sentiment (funding fees, contract holdings, futures premium), and the lower the price, the heavier the bearish sentiment. It is completely different from the emotions before 312 and 519
Let's talk about the viewpoint:
1. The weekly bull market is still there. The weekly moving average is still in a perfect bullish arrangement, and this decline is just a retracement of the weekly MA20. This trend is very common in individual US stocks, but it has never appeared in the historical trend of BTC (referring to the long time of this callback).
Some people are worried about the long-term oscillation trend after the end of the 19-year bull market. At that time, the weekly moving average was in a tangled state, and now it is a perfect bullish arrangement of the weekly line, so it is believed that this adjustment time will not be as long as after the end of the 19-year bull market
2. Optimistically, there should be a strong rebound after stepping back on the weekly MA20, and you can pay attention to the market performance in the next 1 or 2 weeks. Pessimistically, if the bulls are very weak, it can also fluctuate sideways above the weekly MA20. In either case, new highs will continue to be set in the future.
The possibility of BTC falling below the weekly MA20 to the weekly MA60 is subjectively considered to be extremely small
3. Many cottages have fallen through this round of decline (1 because most cottages have low positions, and 2 if they continue to fall, they will destroy the long arrangement of the weekly moving average, and it will take a long time to sort out in the future).
Combined with the high position of BTC.D, we can pay attention to the opportunities in the alt season. I will try to do some short-term alt bullishness next.
Finally, some thoughts:
1. The market has repeatedly broken some traditional rules of the currency circle (there was no buying climax in May 21, the new high at the end of 21 did not continue to rise, the bear market in 22 fell below the high of the previous bull market, and the new high in 24 had the longest adjustment time in history).Therefore, the unique rules of the cryptocurrency circle will gradually become ineffective in the future.
2. Before BTC hit a new high, I had expected that this round of bull market would retrace the weekly MA20 several times like in 2017, instead of directly pulling to the top without retracement like in 2021 (I personally think that the bull market in 2021 will reach its peak in May instead of November).
Because if the bull market wants to last for a long time, it must have a large-scale correction and turnover like in 2017 in the middle to prolong the bull market process and give newcomers more time to enter the market. If it is pulled sharply like in 2021, the bull market will last for a shorter period of time.
But this round of adjustment is still quite unexpected to me. Because during the adjustment, the sentiment was already pessimistic (reaching the level of the adjustment in January 2021), but it continued to fall afterwards.
Finally, from the perspective of the shorts, the structure from March to May is a distribution structure, which makes sense. But from the weekly line, there is not enough time. Even if there is a distribution here, BTC will have the need to test the previous high again in the future, and the altcoins will also take this opportunity to pull up and ship. So don't worry about spot
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