Gold/US dollar/Japanese yen, a few words! (Investment advice included)
Just landed, looking for a place to eat something. Today's update may be delayed. Just now on the road, I also thought about the recent hot spots in the international financial market, the rise in gold, the strong US dollar, and the plummeting yen.
Gold:
First, let's talk about the rise in gold. The current rise in gold has continuously refreshed historical highs recently. There are two factors that support the rise in gold. The first is the instability of geopolitical issues. At present, the situation in the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, the South China Sea, and the Far East is indeed a bit responsible, and Cuba is also involved. Therefore, unstable geopolitics is an important factor supporting the rise in gold, so we can't just focus on the Middle East issue. Even if the Middle East issue is over, other hidden dangers will make the gold price stable.
The second point is that the expectations for the US dollar have been greatly reduced. The global market has lost confidence in the US dollar, so many people use US dollars to buy gold, which is also one of the important factors leading to the rise in gold prices. Many people say that the US dollar index is very strong now. Why do I say that the expectations for the US dollar have been greatly reduced? This point will be discussed below.
At present, the price of gold has hit a record high. Many people are concerned about whether they can invest in gold. I personally suggest that if you are worried about being trapped, you can use gold as an asset hedge, and pay attention to your risk expectations. Then make a choice. In many cases, it is possible to exchange time for cycle space, but I am afraid that your expectation time is too short.
US dollar:
At present, the US dollar index continues to maintain a position of 106. Although it has not reached the strongest expectation of the Federal Reserve, it is relatively the strongest currency on the blue planet. But we must know that historically, the price of gold and the US dollar are negatively correlated, that is, when the US dollar is strong, the price of gold is low, and when the gold price rises, the US dollar becomes weaker. So at present, gold is rising sharply, and the US dollar is much weaker.
Why is the US dollar index rising all the time? That is because of the structural problem of the US dollar index. Simply put, the basket of currencies that support the US dollar index is too weak, which makes the US dollar appear very strong. This strength is only a small range of strength. Therefore, the current strength of the US dollar index is only an appearance, not a substance.In terms of the application of the US dollar and the expectations of the risk market, it is obviously weaker than in history, and many people use the US dollar to buy gold, which leads to an increase in gold prices.
Why has the status of the US dollar weakened? This is because the international financial market has more and more doubts about the US economy and the US financial system, including the high government debt, the difficult fiscal revenue, the deformed economic system, the reliance on technology to drive the country, but the weakening productivity, etc. The Federal Reserve has always shown its strength with high interest rates, but the market is not stupid. Everyone understands that the current high interest rate will always start to cut interest rates and land. What if it fails to land, so the market, including the smart people on Wall Street, has also begun to be bearish on the US dollar in disguise.
Is the US dollar worth investing at present? My suggestion is that if you have the demand and application scenarios for the use of US dollars, you have no problem exchanging US dollars, but if you have no demand and application scenarios, it is not recommended to buy US dollars simply for investment.
Yen:
The hot spot these two days, the yen index has fallen. Many people believe that the collapse of the yen represents the collapse of the Japanese economy, and the Japanese economy will return to 34 years ago. In fact, in expressing this view, we have brought a lot of subjective thoughts.
First of all, I would like to state that I personally follow patriotism, so I am a little gloating over the guys who are living a good life. However, if we look at it from a macro perspective, we need to be more objective.
The decline of the yen index has indeed made the Japanese economy even worse, but we must know that Japan has been in a bad situation for more than a decade, and it has just ended deflation. Therefore, the weakening of the yen is not as harmful to Japan as we think.
I have said before that the relationship between currency relations and monetary economy is complex, and it is also referenced together with independent relations.
For the yen, the weakness is essentially the strength of the yen. The weakness of the yen has always made the yen's overseas assets more cost-effective, which has led to an increase in the use scenarios and demand for the yen, and an increase in liquidity, which is good for Japan itself. When we evaluate a country's currency, we cannot simply measure it by the exchange rate.We also need to refer to their individual positioning and the supply and demand relationship in the market.
So the continued decline in the yen exchange rate is not necessarily a bad thing for Japan itself, and the increase in yen liquidity has pressure on inflation, but we must know that Japan has just ended the deflation era and should not be afraid of short-term inflation. Therefore, the increase in yen liquidity in the short term has both advantages and disadvantages for Japan. From an external perspective, it is normal for Japan to be harvested by the United States. Is it possible that Japan is ready to be harvested by the United States? Let's change the word "harvest" to "support the big brother". The big brother is currently in crisis, should the younger brother contribute? If the big brother falls, will the younger brother still have the confidence? According to this idea, you should understand it. If Japan itself is ready to be harvested, and then help the big brother through the difficulty of interest rate cuts, and Japan itself strengthens the market supply and demand relationship through yen liquidity, and then the United States overcomes the difficulties, and helps in disguised ways, isn't it more reasonable?
For the investment ideas of the yen, everyone has their own opinions. Personally, I am still a little emotional about the guys who have a good life, so I won't make any suggestions in this regard.
I may not update today, so I apologize in advance. I have been having occasional liver pain recently, and I plan to have a follow-up checkup after returning to China. I will try not to stay up late for now.
