In fact, this year, Mr. Ni and Frank mentioned this issue and gave clear answers. Of course, I will also quote the views of the two big guys to continue.

1. The disadvantages of Bitcoin ETF are beginning to emerge. After Bitcoin passed the ETF in January this year, although it changed the basic structure and market evaluation system of Bitcoin, making Bitcoin more resistant to decline, that is, the lower limit was raised, it also brought disadvantages. Bitcoin became more dependent on macro data fundamentals. Under the premise of the lack of strong narrative in the crypto market, without macro data stimulation, Bitcoin cannot get too much liquidity.

2. Market liquidity is still low. This has been a hot topic of discussion recently. Interest rate cuts or water releases will bring more liquidity to the market. At present, under the premise of lack of liquidity, liquidity is more inclined to US stocks, because US stocks have a clear evaluation system after all, such as financial reports, AI technology narratives, etc.

3. Changes in risk preferences. Although the Federal Reserve has been reluctant to cut interest rates, and various data have shown that the US economy is still healthy and strong, high-net-worth individuals who understand the US system will stick to risky assets because they expect the US economy to be more risky in the future, which leads to funds buying safe-haven funds, US bonds/gold. Externally, the US dollar and US bonds are still the world's top safe-haven assets. The strong performance of US data has once again stimulated and attracted external funds to buy. The change in risk preferences has led to a more stable liquidity bias in the financial market towards fixed assets, which has led to a lack of water in the market, and the remaining water has flowed into US stocks, which are currently more effective in creating wealth.

My humble opinion, welcome to discuss.

#BTC走勢分析 $BTC