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小辛不新苦
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If you read every post of mine carefully every day, you will learn a lot from it. I can confidently tell you that none of them is nonsense. You can look back at the following post now. Does this belong to the trough period of the second and third periods? For example, when I wrote this post, the market was still hot. I suddenly posted it to ask everyone not to fomo and not to sell while the market is rising. Many people must have sneered after reading it. Maybe you couldn't understand why I said I admired those who held on to the third period, because you couldn't feel this feeling at all. Is it an opportunity now? But the cottage industry has generally adjusted by more than 50%. If you want to return to the starting point after a 50% drop, the time cost is a 100% increase. When others are making money, you are still recovering your investment. When you recover your investment, others have already made money! Write a so-called cost cycle theory. You finally get back to the starting point and the market makes a correction. Then you fall into a vicious circle. You are vague about the market and always afraid of making mistakes. So you simply don't make any operations. But in fact, if you can't solve the problem of market cognition, you often can't sell accurately in the third period. All avoidance of market cognition will eventually backfire on yourself. Only by facing the unknown and exploring the rules can you have the true trading philosophy. #比特币减半 #CPI数据 #大盘走势 #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETHFI🔥🔥🔥

If you read every post of mine carefully every day, you will learn a lot from it. I can confidently tell you that none of them is nonsense.

You can look back at the following post now. Does this belong to the trough period of the second and third periods?

For example, when I wrote this post, the market was still hot. I suddenly posted it to ask everyone not to fomo and not to sell while the market is rising. Many people must have sneered after reading it. Maybe you couldn't understand why I said I admired those who held on to the third period, because you couldn't feel this feeling at all.

Is it an opportunity now? But the cottage industry has generally adjusted by more than 50%. If you want to return to the starting point after a 50% drop, the time cost is a 100% increase. When others are making money, you are still recovering your investment. When you recover your investment, others have already made money!

Write a so-called cost cycle theory. You finally get back to the starting point and the market makes a correction. Then you fall into a vicious circle. You are vague about the market and always afraid of making mistakes. So you simply don't make any operations. But in fact, if you can't solve the problem of market cognition, you often can't sell accurately in the third period. All avoidance of market cognition will eventually backfire on yourself. Only by facing the unknown and exploring the rules can you have the true trading philosophy.

#比特币减半 #CPI数据 #大盘走势 #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ETHFI🔥🔥🔥

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. See T&Cs.
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今天的打卡有点晚了,首先聊聊昨晚的会议。 比现象中要好多了,通过提问可以看到市场最但心的并不是美联储什么时候降息,以及降息几次,反而会更加关心美联储会不会加息,这方面鲍威尔给出的回答很直接,即便是通胀(核心PCE)回到了3%,目前是2.8%,美联储也没有继续加息的意图,起码目前是的,对于美联储来说目前的利率已经足够有限制性。 然后对于降息他的回答是以每次的数据为准,然后对3月点阵图可能会降息三次他并没持有否定的态度。然后就是鲍威尔有表示,现在美联储关注的重点就是失业率,如果失业率提升到了4%以上,现在是3.8%,那么美联储就可能会重新平衡的考虑是否要进入防御性降息。 失业率过高对于民主党来说很不友好,如果大选之前就能看到4%的失业率,那么将迎来新的放水。通过数据确定美联储每一步的走势,但也否认了美联储对于全球经济的干扰,尤其是日本。 本次会议中鲍威尔不想过多的去讨论降息的预期,接下来的话还是多关注失业率和pec吧,降息猜测往后推一推。 美联储流动性变化:缩表——>缩表(QT)减半——>缩表(QT)停止——>开始宽松(QE) 类比大饼走势就是:下跌——>止跌——>横盘——>开始上涨 对于趋势来说,加息意味着利空开始,暂停加息预示着好的预期,降息开始带来破坏降息后放水流动性增加,这是大的趋势,中间可能会有不同的结构,但结果往往是必然的,所以没有什么不妥,一切都是历史规律的演绎,不同的是剧本各有千秋,但结局都是一样的。 #5月市场关键事件 #香港加密货币ETF #美联储利率决议即将公布
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本周有不少美国宏观数据公布,尤其是5月2号凌晨还有利率决议,虽然不降息已是定局,但关键是看鲍威尔的表述。 从时间上来看,今天是一个斐波那契时间窗口。配合明天的利率决定可能这两天的行情会异常的活跃的,然后就是我昨天给大家聊到的比特币已经高度和美股契合,旷工的成本以及老美经的济环境已经不太可能让大饼出现暴跌了,我是这么认为的。 所以还是在强调一下没有给天鹅时间就不要期待什么暴跌了,其实对我这次的回调60000附近是不错的底部,交易层面去看性价比很高不要过于沮丧,只是行情比较磨人而已。 我记得在这次没有大跌之前我就已经讲过,到时在出现回调可能需要1-3月时间去抚平,但是这个时间节点就很不好确定了,到底准确是多常时间但从周k来看,这连续的长下影线说明6w附近有足够多的买方力量一直在支撑,乐观看这是一个吸筹过程。这里震荡的时间足够长,将会形成一个充分的筹码换手区域,为下一次的行情腾飞做好准备。最终考验的还是买卖双方的资金交锋。 但是如果真跌破六万也没有办法,对现货来说问题不大 ,但是对于杠杆来说可能要清仓了,特别是山寨的杠杆。 在一个正常的上涨环境中,合约持仓总量要满足“价增量涨”,即价格上涨的同时,持仓量也应该同步上涨。近半个月来的两次反弹,价格虽然涨上去了,但CME的期货持仓总量基本持平,没有什么变化。所以复盘来看,反弹都软弱无力,无法转变成真正的上涨。后续关注CME的持仓总量变化(仅关注CME的持仓总量即可,不需要关注币圈全部合约持仓量),“价增量涨”,即为真的上涨。 合约持仓量怎么看我放评论区了,大家去自己看一下吧。 #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美联储 #以太坊ETF
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