There are a lot of US macro data released this week, especially the interest rate decision in the early morning of May 2. Although it is a foregone conclusion that there will be no interest rate cut, the key lies in Powell's statement.
From the perspective of time, today is a Fibonacci time window. With tomorrow's interest rate decision, the market may be unusually active in the next two days. Then, as I talked to you yesterday, Bitcoin is highly consistent with US stocks. The cost of absenteeism and the economic environment of the old US are unlikely to cause a sharp drop in the big cake. I think so.
So I still emphasize that if you don't give the swan time, don't expect any sharp drop. In fact, for me, the callback around 60,000 is a good bottom. From the perspective of trading, the cost-effectiveness is very high. Don't be too depressed. It's just that the market is more tiring.
I remember that I had said before this big drop that it might take 1-3 months to smooth out the callback, but this time node is very difficult to determine. How long is the exact time? But from the weekly K, this continuous long lower shadow shows that there are enough buyer forces around 6w to support it. I am optimistic that this is a process of accumulating funds. If the fluctuations here last long enough, a sufficient area for the turnover of chips will be formed, which will prepare for the next market boom. The final test is the capital confrontation between buyers and sellers.
However, if it really falls below 60,000, there is no way. It is not a big problem for spot, but for leverage, it may be necessary to clear the position, especially the leverage of copycat.
In a normal rising environment, the total contract position must meet the "price increase and volume increase", that is, while the price rises, the position should also rise synchronously. In the two rebounds in the past half month, although the price has risen, the total futures position of CME has remained basically the same, with no change. Therefore, in retrospect, the rebound is weak and cannot be transformed into a real rise. Pay attention to the changes in the total position of CME in the future (only pay attention to the total position of CME, and do not need to pay attention to the position of all contracts in the currency circle). "Price increase and volume increase" means a real rise.
How to view the contract position I put in the comment area, everyone can go and see it for yourself.