Analysis of Bitcoin:

Affected by the sentiment of data, the price of Bitcoin fell below 70,000 and then fell again, directly breaking the first and second supports of yesterday. Although it has rebounded above the second support, it can be seen that under the guidance of negative sentiment, the support strength of this support is still weak. At the same time, we will find that the recent small-level support has deteriorated.

However, it is true that in this trading environment, the reduction of liquidity and the reduction of trading depth will indeed make the indicators of small-level time invalid.

For the current rebound resistance, we can directly see that the 72,700 brought by the Bollinger Bands on the daily level is the first resistance level, followed by the historical high, and then the weekly resistance level. However, it seems that everyone does not care about these at present. During the decline, many people try to chase the short position, and even more pessimistically believe that it will fall back to 50,000. To be honest, on the eve of Bitcoin halving, I am not so optimistic about this sharp decline.

Let's take a look at the support situation below:

The first support, 68,500, short-term support, slightly strong support. The support is provided by the middle line of the daily Bollinger Band, EMA7 at the 3-day and weekly levels. From a technical perspective, the support is strong, but according to the current actual situation, it has indeed fallen below the rebound in the short term, so we evaluate that the strength of the support will be reduced. At the same time, this support is also the trend of the price at the short-term daily level. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, the price will return to the safe range again in the short term.

The second support, 66,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is simply supported by the upper line of the monthly Bollinger Band, but I still regard this support as the strongest support position in the short term. Another reason is that there was a good turnover of chips in this price range before, which will play a certain role in stabilizing the short-term price trend. However, if this position is broken, the monthly level will be broken, then there will be more room for decline below, and Bitcoin will officially enter the correction period.

The third support, 64,000, is a short-term support with general support. This support is effectively supported by the lower line of the daily Bollinger Band and the middle line of the 3-day Bollinger Band. Although the third support is supported by many technical factors, if the second support is broken, the role of the third support will be minimal.Therefore, I will regard the third support as a support for falling buffer.

From the technical point of view, although it is not enough to be too optimistic, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. I still have to borrow a sentence from Mr. Ni. It is not necessary to be bullish if it rises, and it is not necessary to be bearish if it falls. You must understand the meaning of support and resistance. And use it reasonably.

At present, stimulated by US data, US stocks are still falling. Although there has been a rebound, the strength of the rebound is weak. On the contrary, the crypto market has ushered in a good rebound, but we still can't be too optimistic now. The monetary minutes in the early morning are accompanied by the speeches of Fed officials. If the speeches are not conducive to market expectations again, the mood will be more depressed.

But this is not a direct bearish signal. I think that as long as the Fed does not release remarks about raising interest rates again, even if the interest rate cut this year is eliminated in expectations, it will not bring too much negative sentiment. But there is normal emotional depression. After all, the current 10-year US Treasury bond has returned to around 4.5%, which will have an emotional inhibitory effect on the overall risk market.

The RSI relative strength index has dropped to around 48. Once the index continues to fall, it will trigger an oversold rebound sentiment.

We will look at the changes in market data later.
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