Market summary:
Although the technical side is not optimistic today, it has fallen to the monthly support, but this support is also stronger than many previous supports above. In terms of market data today, it is obviously better than yesterday, especially in terms of funds. The net inflow of funds per day is greatly increasing. US funds have flowed in a large amount per day and actively participated in transactions. Regardless of whether the market selling pressure continues to increase, from the data, US traders have boldly increased their holdings, which is a good thing.
As soon as Bitcoin fell, many people in the market believed that Bitcoin would fall to 50,000 or even lower. I don’t object to this, but I don’t agree with it. There are such people in every round of decline. When Bitcoin rebounds and rises, these people disappear. My point of view is that everything is based on data. Although Bitcoin is constantly falling, the performance of the cottage today and the performance of off-site capital inflows are not bad.
At present, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will delay the rate hike has become a high-probability event. Even if the non-agricultural data this week is negative, it can be regarded as negative landing. If there is no panic selling after landing, then the market sentiment will naturally reverse. And as long as the data is better day by day this week, this is a great positive.
Regarding the contract, I would like to remind you to pay attention to the risks. If the long position is at the current position, once it falls below, the strong support below will directly reach around 61,000. The fluctuation of 4,000 points during this period is a risk factor that needs to be considered, so it is important to reasonably control the position and stop loss position.
As for the short position, I will not comment on it. Although I am even bearish on the decline of Bitcoin, I will not short it. This is at the current stage.
As for the spot, the sentiment of the cottage is temporarily immune to the signs of Bitcoin's decline. In other words, the decline of Bitcoin has increased the opportunities for the cottage. From a certain perspective, this is a good thing.
At present, the overall sentiment of the market is slowly getting better. Don't let others create anxiety.
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In terms of macroeconomics, needless to say, the current issue is whether this week’s labor force data confirms Powell’s expectation of slowing down the rate cut plan.
Yesterday we also discussed that the Federal Reserve's previously dovish remarks and now its hawkish remarks gave the world an illusion and successfully deceived Switzerland into cutting interest rates and Japan to raise interest rates. This is the genius, and we have to admit it.
At the same time, the United States, which is raising interest rates, has indeed dealt a blow to the confidence of major economies around the world. Although everyone later realized that the hegemony of the US dollar was slowly declining, it is still a strong first-class currency. There is no doubt that camels are bigger than horses.
Of course, if the employment data this week is good and confirms the idea that interest rates will not be raised for the time being, it will also reduce the probability of an interest rate cut in June again. At the same time, if the number of interest rate cuts this year is reduced from three to two, then the interest rate cut will The time will be delayed to the end of the third quarter or even the fourth quarter.
Tonight's JOLTs data should be able to see some signs. However, after the release of the non-agricultural data on Friday, the market was reassured that the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts would not have much impact in the short term.
In fact, the Fed's interest rate cut cannot be judged by simple data at the current stage. The Fed has used good data to play with the global economy and financial markets at the expense of the loss of data credibility.
As for when the Fed will cut interest rates, it really depends on whether the Fed's purpose is achieved. The current state is result-oriented. Maybe the United States itself knows what this rate cut may mean, so it will not cut interest rates easily based on data.
Recently, the Federal Reserve has also tasted the consequences of manipulating data. The credibility of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve has declined. The crisis of American companies and banks under high interest rates has also been noticed. The sell-off of bonds and the inflow of funds into the gold market have also successfully promoted the gold market price. Breaking through historical highs. In particular, you must know that in this round of gold's turn from bear to bull, the United States itself has not taken advantage of the bargaining chip. Gold has been continuously increased by central banks other than the United States and several other countries.
The current gameplay of the United States is a bit extreme, but it is also easy to understand. Since I am going to fall, it is better to drag everyone down together, because the United States is still the one with a larger frame when they fall collectively.You can be the head of a chicken if you don't want to be the phoenix.
Due to the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, the price of gold has risen directly, U.S. bonds have been sold off, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has increased. Although funds from U.S. bonds have also flowed out, the increase in the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has changed the assessment of the entire risk market among traders, and there have been signs of risk aversion in the risk market.
At present, many people in the market are concerned about where the selling pressure in the market comes from. In fact, this topic is not easy to discuss. It can only be said that when market sentiment is restricted, the risk market sentiment is tense, and then the action will become cautious. In addition, the demand in the ETF market has decreased, and the normal selling pressure may be amplified after losing the buying power.
As I said before, under the premise that Bitcoin is constantly being held, the liquidity of the market has decreased, and the trading depth has decreased, which has led to an increase in the original price fluctuations and an increase in the volatility risk rate.
Market summary will be later.
#BTC#
