#TrendingTopic #BTC The truth about the transaction

The truth about the deal:

1. Cycle

The cycle is the largest. Compared with the cycle, any other news aspect, policy aspect will not be as powerful as the cycle, because behind the cycle is an extremely huge increase and decrease in funds, and policy is just a group push dose under the cycle, such as raising interest rates. Under the cycle, the intensity and frequency of interest rate hikes are all policy factors.

2. Policy

As a booster of the cycle, policies may sometimes get ahead of the curve, but they will never be late.

For example: At #BTC 15000, it is already at the end of the expected rate hike, because the CPI has reached 3%, which is very close to the target of 2%. However, positive voices have emerged about BlackRock's application for spot ETFs. Although it was rejected, there is only one target that BlackRock has been completely rejected in history. Before the interest rate cut cycle started, Bitcoin went from 15,000 to 40,000. After application or approval, it went from 40,000 to now breaking the previous high of 69,000.

3. News

The "metaphysical" word news has always been associated with any trading market, and novices like Xiaobai and Xiaosan flock to this word. From the perspective of existence and rationality, it is not right or wrong, but from the perspective of trading, it requires a rational judgment. For example: when the price was around 69,000 last time, the news was that breaking through 100,000 was just around the corner. People who haven’t gotten on the bus yet should seize the last chance. Words like this were heard endlessly, and then...everyone knew it.

4. Knowledge and technology

In a chaotic market, the only tool that can give you objective truth is "technical indicators". No matter which indicator, it will give you a certain reference. For example: when Bitcoin was at 69,000 last time, the RSI indicator gave oversold + divergence, MACD gave divergence, Dow Theory gave 2B, etc. The indicator itself is not complicated. What is complicated is that traders are not calm enough to judge and are conquered and influenced by the fantasy of human nature. Eventually the transaction failed. From a strict perspective, there are no high requirements for self-initiated learning, no strict requirements for trading plans, and no strict implementation of trading plans. Eventually the transaction failed.

So the truth is: understand the cycle + pay attention to news every day + learn relevant knowledge about trading every day + continue trial and error and verification of small positions.

Preview: Tomorrow let’s talk about what is the “illusion” of trading?