Now, the US stock market has become a puppet before the Fed can actually talk about rate cuts.
Last night, the CPI data was negative but the market opened but rebounded, and then fell collectively because of the plunge in Apple and Tesla's stock prices.
Wall Street uses the media to continue to engage in expected economics, guiding market sentiment to believe that core inflation has decreased. Although the published data is not too optimistic, it still shows the Fed's ability to reduce inflation.
Well, after a lot of tossing back and forth, the US stock market rebounded in the early morning, and the closing price was basically not much different from the opening price.
My prediction is that before really talking about rate cuts in the future, under these key data, the Fed will definitely use the expected economic gameplay to balance the stock market and will not let the stock market go unilaterally. Whether it is a unilateral rise or fall, when the pro-US stock market stabilizes at a high level, it is a good thing for the entire risk market and the US index and US bonds.
However, it can be clearly seen that in the early morning stage, Coinbase's stock price did not rebound after falling. On the first day of the ETF's launch, although the trading volume was good, the price continued to fall, resulting in a decline in stock prices, but it is also normal.
The greater the hope, the greater the disappointment. The previous expectations were too high. It is normal to see the selling pressure of cryptocurrencies or stock prices now. It depends on how the market sentiment will take over the downward force.
CME Bitcoin Futures Index, the positive premium of the futures index has been shrinking since yesterday. The current futures market has a positive premium of only 100 points compared to the spot market, which is much less than before the ETF was launched. The long expectations in the futures market are decreasing. At the same time, the delivery time is 16:00 this Friday afternoon. After the delivery, it depends on the sentiment of the futures market.
The US dollar index is still strong and maintains above 102. It is relatively strong. The strength of the US dollar index has also suppressed the recent trend of gold. The current international gold price is around 2033 US dollars.
Due to the intensification of geopolitical issues in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has rebounded strongly again. It has now reached 79 US dollars. If it can break through 80 US dollars, the crude oil price will return to the gold position again.
Last night was the first night of the successful issuance of the ETF. The price of Bitcoin rose for a while and then fell significantly. The profit-taking selling pressure that appeared during the short-term rise was also the main content of our discussion last night. It is emotionally normal, and with the operation of the ETF, if the price of Bitcoin cannot be substantially increased in the short term, then there will be selling. This is the mentality of retail investors.
Of course, short-term price drops to digest selling pressure are not a bad thing. This is what I have always emphasized. The market rationally digests the selling pressure bubble, and then falls back to stabilize and fluctuate. This will make the current price more stable and more conducive to the subsequent pull-up.
