This article is a personal summary for reference only. The targets mentioned in the article do not constitute any investment advice. Please note that most of the targets I focus on have achieved several times or even dozens of times growth, so it does not mean that it is suitable for current intervention. My focus is always on the potential of the target itself, not whether others participate.
Regarding the industry ceiling: clarifying the logic of the big trend
If you think that projects in the field of "AI+Crypto" are unlikely to reach a market value of tens of billions of dollars, then perhaps there is no need to pay too much attention to this track. Whether it is DeFi Summer, NFT Summer, or Meme craze, the top projects in each important track have exceeded the market value of tens of billions, which is also the core standard for defining "Summer".
If your judgment is based on whether the project can be listed on a major exchange, then this is obviously not in line with the logic of "Summer". Top projects in DeFi, NFT, and even Meme can reach a market value of tens of billions without relying on exchanges. Therefore, if you cannot see the potential of the AI+Crypto track to reach a ceiling of tens of billions, you might as well focus on holding BTC and still have a steady return.
The core of identifying the big trend is to determine which tracks have the potential to reach a market value of tens of billions. This is the core and simplest logic of cryptocurrency investment. The leading projects of DeFi, NFT, and Meme have verified this. For me, the focus is not on the current valuation of the project, but on its future development potential. If a track has the opportunity to show exponential growth, I will decisively participate.
The logic of AI+Crypto’s rise
1. Driven by technological iteration and economic motivation
AI+Crypto is different from Meme's "pure emotion + community consensus". AI Agent has the ability of continuous iteration and will continue to give birth to more powerful products.
Currently, many people make a distinction between "Web2 AI" and "Web3 AI". This kind of thinking lacks understanding of economic motivation. It is common sense that developers and resources will naturally flow into places where there is a wealth effect. The wealth effect in Web3 will attract outstanding developers and capital to enter the field of AI Agents, so there is no need to worry too much about the technology not keeping up.
In addition, the combination of AI and Crypto is necessary from the perspective of both financial incentives and decentralized trust. If you don’t understand this, it is recommended that you study it in depth.
2. Market space and development speed of AI Agent
Compared with DeFi, NFT and other fields, the development speed and potential of AI Agent are more impressive.
• DeFi Summer is based on the deconstruction of traditional financial logic. Although the market has huge room for imagination, the speed of implementation is far lower than expected.
• NFT Summer relies more on the low liquidity bubble narrative, and demand is weak after returning to its essence.
• Meme Summer is the product of speculative sentiment and communication effects, but its growth is difficult to sustain due to the gradual reduction of internal circulation funds.
The potential of AI Agent, whether it is the trillion-dollar market of Web2 AI or the on-chain ecology of Web3 AI, has not yet been fully tapped. At present, the market value of the entire AI track is only about 10 billion US dollars, and there are no top 10 billion projects like DeFi and NFT. More importantly, the technological iteration of AI Agent will continue to promote its breakthrough capabilities, and ultimately bring greater market demand.
Investment strategy: main line logic and target selection
The cryptocurrency industry has always been a paradise for speculators, so the investment logic in the past is still applicable:
1. Pay attention to the leader in the track;
2. Capture new concepts and narrative hotspots;
3. Stay sensitive to the on-chain ecology and adjust strategies in a timely manner.
Target Screening Framework
1. Infrastructure
The frameworks that are worth paying attention to in the current track include Virtual, AI16z and Swarms. These three have large ecological space and development potential.
2. Ecological quality and development potential
The value of a framework project depends on the quality and scale of AI Agents in its ecosystem, which in turn is affected by factors such as the project team's capabilities and financial support. Currently, Virtual is leading due to its team strength, revenue sources, and the performance of the top agents in the ecosystem. Swarms recently released a white paper, and the specific performance of AI16z remains to be further observed.
3. Infrastructure projects
Infrastructure projects such as Cookie and Fosai are also worth paying attention to. Especially in the current on-chain boom, some basic products can attract large market capitalizations based on team information and narratives even if they have not yet been released, but it is necessary to focus on evaluating the actual value creation ability of the project and the pattern of the founding team.
About the valuation of AI Agent
Take AIxBT as an example. This is an emerging AI agent that can analyze cryptocurrency opportunities 24 hours a day. Its user mindshare has surpassed many top KOLs and is still in a rapid growth stage. From the perspective of attention being wealth, its potential may still be underestimated.
Future Outlook
The development potential of AI Agent is not limited to the current simple conversation capabilities. Its iterative directions include:
1. Chatbot (basic conversational capabilities);
2. Reasoner (problem-solving skills);
3. Agents (systems that can perform tasks);
4. Innovators (participating in invention and creation);
5. Organizer (ability to manage complex tasks).
Projects such as AIxBT may have surpassed the traditional definition of "chatbots" and are moving towards agents and innovators. In the blockchain industry, this logic of attention snowballing may continue to strengthen, and the future value growth space is worth tracking.
The above is just my personal thoughts. The market is changing rapidly. Please make decisions based on your own judgment. #AIXBT、CGPT、COOKIE将上线币安 #AI概念币强势反弹
