Although there is good news that Trump will take office as the US President on January 20, due to a press conference held by Trump last night, the market fell sharply last night, and the cottage industry was completely reshuffled. Most cottage industries fell below the bottom area of the past six months.
Trump’s radical remarks and Musk’s temporary lack of plans to support Dogecoin payments have caused the crypto market to crash!
1. Two important data tonight:
1️⃣The small non-farm data released at 21:15, the current expected value is 6,000 less than the previous value of employment, which is a small positive for the interest rate cut!
2️⃣The number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending 21:30 was 7,000 more than the previous value. These two data support each other and are a small positive!
Second, the heavy data is of course the big non-agricultural data on Friday night:
① The unemployment rate of the big non-farm data is basically the same, but the expected value of non-farm employment is 67,000 lower than the previous value, which is much worse than the small non-farm data. This is an absolutely positive level!
② If the published value of the above non-agricultural data is not much different from the expected value, it is undoubtedly good news, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at the end of this month will be greatly increased! Even if there is no interest rate cut this month, it will not be too far away from the interest rate cut! The medium and long-term interest rate cut cycle will not be changed! Then there will be no worries about liquidity in the long run!
3. Trump was sworn in as the President of the United States on January 20. Although he doesn’t talk much about encryption now, after all, Trump knows better than anyone which is more important, the encryption circle or the GDP that affects tens of trillions of dollars every year!
Therefore, what happened to Trump is an expectation of regulatory implementation and openness for the cryptocurrency circle, which cannot be hyped up by capital into an expectation of skyrocketing wealth. Therefore, Trump will be a key figure who will continue to promote and influence the progress of the crypto circle in the next four years. Especially in the long term, it is definitely a big benefit!
4. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates at 3:00 a.m. on January 30. Not cutting interest rates is to give face to Trump and wait for Trump's guidance. However, if this month's non-farm data, CPI data, and PCE data all support a rate cut, then the probability of a 25 basis point cut will rise to 80%!
Judging from the current data, the expected values of non-agricultural data are positive, but the strange thing is that the market fell instead of rising. There must be something wrong when things are abnormal. Trump is about to take office. The market crash in the past two days is undoubtedly the dealer releasing bad news to clean up the market and absorb funds. The harder the fall, the more thorough the cleanup. After Trump takes office, there will be more room for pulling up the market. It seems to be a market crash, but in fact it may be a covert operation to complete the main turnover and start a new wave of market expectations! So here I personally recommend that you hold the spot patiently and don’t fall into the trap of the dog dealer. Of course, don’t hold the contract order stubbornly. You still have to stop the loss when you should. Only by keeping the principal can you have a chance to turn the situation around!
In terms of operation, it is still recommended to continue to invest on dips in the long term, operate in the medium term, and buy low and sell high with stop loss in the ultra-short term to earn profits!
During trading, you must control your positions, strictly implement stop-profit and stop-loss, and try not to open contracts overnight!
The above investment research analysis is for reference only, I hope it will be helpful to everyone! If you are lucky enough to see my friends, please like + follow me to support me. I will update more high-quality posts every day to share with you!
